The Best And Worst Stocks For The First Half Of 2011

Most of the financial media stops at mid-year to reflect on how the market performed since January 1. The effort is often fruitless. The fact that a stock, or any market, did well over an artificially determined period of time does not mean much. People and institutions rarely buy investments at the start of a year just to sell them exactly six months later.

Read the best performing stocks for 2011
Read the worst performing stocks for 2011

We have become comfortable, however, with the routine of the calendar.  A six month period is as good as any.

The yardstick for the period is the change in the S&P 500, which was up by 4% in the first six months. The market collapsed in mid-March and rallied into May. The index was nearly flat in June.

Some of the most interesting stocks are those that did not make the lists of best and worst performers, but would have if it were not for a percentage point or two. Ford (NYSE: F), one of the great turnarounds of the last decade, was down 20% in the first half. Its extraordinary gains of the last two years gave way as gas prices rose and consumer sentiment faltered. Target (NYSE: TGT), Wal-Mart’s (NYSE: TGT) most aggressive competitor, was down 23%. The retailer spent as if the recession was over, but its sales did not support this plan.

On the brighter side, Moody’s (NYSE: MCO) was up 41%. The credit rating firm was partially blamed for the credit crisis. It blessed pools of mortgage-backed securities that were actually risky investments. It still faces the possibility of government sanctions, which could curtail its future earnings. Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG), once part of McDonald’s (NYSE MCD), posted earnings that showed people could afford to have inexpensive meals out, even if the economy is slow.

The Ten Winners

10. Teradata (NYSE: TDC)
> Current price: $59.32
> YTD Change: Up 44.1%

The supplier of enterprise hardware and software trades near its 52-week high. Teradata had the benefit of an 18% improvement in first quarter sales. It also did the thing Wall St. loves the most — it raised its earnings guidance for the balance of the year.

9. Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS)
> Current price: $23.61
> YTD Change: Up 44.2%

The largest video game software company was supposed to be in trouble at this point as more and more game players moved to smartphones. Electronic Arts was smart enough to get there ahead of many of its customers. The company bought online game firm Playfish. Online game firm Zynga has been valued at $20 billion as it prepares an IPO, and Zynga’s rich valuation has helped EA.

8. El Paso (NYSE: EP)
> Current price: $20.07
> YTD Change: Up 45.9%

This may have been one of the best years ever to be in the natural gas business. Energy demand has surged. El Paso is one of the largest transporters of natural gas in the world. The size of the company’s new reserves rose unexpectedly during the last quarter

7. Aetna (NYSE: AET)
> Current price: $44.56
> YTD Change: Up 46.1%

The insurer’s shares have doubled from their 52-week lows. The company improved its standing as a provider of Medicare services. Aetna increased its share buyback program. The firm also increased its profit forecast for the year.

6. CBS (NYSE: CBS)
> Current price: $23.56
> YTD Change: Up 48.9%

Advertising was particularly hard hit by the recession. The recovery has been kind to this industry. CBS benefited from a strong “upfront” sales season as markets bought TV time heavily ahead of a season for shows including “Two and A Half Men.”

5. Humana (NYSE: HUM)
> Current price: $81.57
> YTD Change: Up 49.0%

The medical care company had extremely good sales in its group health operation and did what many other successful companies do. It reaffirmed that it would have strong revenue in 2011.

4. NetFlix (NASDAQ: NFLX)
> Current price: $264.94
> YTD Change: Up 50.8%

The video rental and streaming movie company may have received more press coverage than any company other than Apple in the first half of 2011. Its service has over 20 million online subscribers. It has positioned itself as a critical outlet for premium video content. Some analysts consider it a worthy competitor for large cable companies.

3. Biogen Idec (NASDAQ: BIIB)
> Current price: $108.98
> YTD Change: Up 62.5%

Biogen is one of the few biotechnology companies that will not survive or fail based on the success of one drug. It has grown to become an important supplier of anti-cancer drugs and MS treatments. It also has a large shareholder, raider Carl Icahn, which promotes takeover speculation as a regular part of the way Wall St. measures its share price.

2. Cabot Oil & Gas (NYSE: COG)
> Current price: $64.92
> YTD Change: Up 74.2%

Cabot is in the hot shale oil market. Several analysts have said that the firm’s natural gas reserves have been set by management at levels that are too conservative. Cabot’s Marcellus Shale natural gas reserve in Pennsylvania, in particular, has produced results that are better than expected.

1. National Semiconductor (NYSE: NSM)
> Current price: $24.60
> YTD Change: Up 78.8%

NSM is a boring company. It produces, develops and makes integrated circuits. Shares soared as Texas Instruments (NYSE: TXN) agreed to buy the firm.

The Ten Losers

10. Cisco (NASDAQ CSCO)
> Current price: $15.40
> YTD Change: Down 24.2%

Long-time chief John Chambers, the dean of Silicon Valley CEOs, finally lost his touch. Cisco has suffered through a year of poor results. Chambers bought dozens of companies over the last decade and then discovered he could not integrate them and make each grow as fast as his firm’s core router operation.

9. Alpha Natural Resources (NYSE: ANR)
> Current price: $46.45
> YTD Change: Down 24.3%

Alpha bought troubled coal company Massey Energy. After a mine disaster that the federal government said could have been prevented the deal looks worse by the day.

8. Motorola Mobility (NYSE: MMI)
> Current price: $22.00
> YTD Change: Down 24.4%

This is the handset unit of what was once known simply as Motorola. Its situation has not gotten any better since it became independent. Its product sales run far behind those of Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) and smartphone firms HTC and Samsung. Motorola handsets run the Android operating system, which gives the company almost no distinction in a crowded field.

7. Computer Sciences (NYSE: CSC)
> Current price: $37.43
> YTD Change: Down 24.5%

The big IT solution provider has suffered delays in the funding of some of its largest government contracts. Wall St. is particularly concerned about the UK National Health Service agreement, and what it will ultimately cost to implement.

6. Broadcom (NASDAQ: BRCM)
> Current price: $32.33
> YTD Change: Down 25.6%

Demand for the company’s wireless and broadband chips was down during the first half of the year. The firm’s earnings outlook suffered accordingly. Broadcom also has to compete with some of the most powerful tech companies in the world, including Intel and Qualcomm. Each is bigger, has a stronger balance sheet and a larger market share.

5. Motorola Solutions (NYSE: MSI)
> Current price: $45.97
>YTD Change: Down 27.6%

This is the other half of the breakup of Motorola. This part of the company sells communications enterprise solutions, mostly to governments. The US is its largest client. The age of austerity will not be kind to Solutions. The planned separation of Motorola into two businesses appears to be troubled

4. Staples (NASDAQ: SPLS)
> Current price: $15.60
> YTD Change: Down 31.5%

The retail office supply business has to be one of the worst in the world. Clients shop price at places as diverse as Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), Costco (NASDAQ: COST), and direct competitors like Office Depot (NYSE: ODP). It is hard to find an investor who likes the sector, even if Staples is among the better operators in the group.

3. Akamai (NASDAQ: AKAM)
> Current price: $30.90
>  YTD Change: Down 34.5%

Akamai was one of the original content delivery businesses and was born from the astonishing growth in broadband and the need to distribute video and data. Unfortunately, its core business is now a commodity. Some customers host their own content now. The large Telcos have used their networks to move into the business.

2. Hudson City Bancorp (NASDAQ: HCBK)
> Current price: $8.14
> YTD Change: Down 36.1%

The bank lost $555 million in the first quarter. The firm does a great deal of jumbo mortgage lending, which the U.S. government will no longer give the same financial support it once did. And loans to the well-to-do have not escaped the home market collapse as Hudson’s recent results prove.

1. AIG (NYSE AIG)
>Current price: $29.14
> YTD Change: Down 49.4%

AIG nearly went bankrupt during the credit crisis. It is back in trouble again. The operating companies left after the sale of many of its assets are not particularly impressive. The firm dumped what it could to pay back taxpayers. Three-quarters of the company’s shares are held by the federal government, which has already begun a sales process.

Data as of close 6/29

Douglas A. McIntyre