The first person to live to over 150 years of age has already been born. This, according to the Strategies for Engineered Negligible Senescence Foundation.
The United Nations says that by 2050 there will be 2.2 million people in the world who are over 100. That is as many people as the entire population of Houston. The figure for the number of humans aged 100 or older in the world today is about 300,000.
24/7 Wall St. looked at statistics on centenarians in the 15 largest nations by GDP. Then we took the 11 countries that are also OECD members because the organization keeps data on life expectancy and heath care expenditure per GDP, two sets of data that are essential to an analysis of why people tend to be long-lived. The common data among all countries allowed 24/7 Wall St. to give some context to the number of people who are over 100 in each country. Not having the common data ruled out China and Brazil. China says it has over 43,000 centenarians; Brazil has over 23,000. That would put both nations in the top ten.
Scientists and doctors are as yet unsure about the causes of longevity — whether it is superior genes or substantially better lifestyles. The debate will probably continue for some time.. Medicine has not been able to determine how to make any individual live longer than people who live in the same place and have many of the same traits. So, the medical mystery will continue.
Despite the drawbacks of research, the United Nations believes it can project how large the population of people over 100 will be four decades from now. The global agency reports:
In 1998, there were 135,000 centenarians in the world. By 2050, there will be 2.2 million centenarians, that is one of every 5,000 people. The largest centenarian populations in 2050 are projected to be in China with 472,000, the United States with 298,000, Japan with 272,000, and India with 111,000. By 2050, Japan will have the highest proportion of centenarians, 2.6 per thousand of the total population, or 2.2 per cent of the oldest-old. Its total number of centenarians will be 272,000: 40,000 males and 232,000 females. Finland, Italy, Norway, Singapore and Sweden will have slightly below two per one thousand people.
There are a number of reasons to believe that the count of centenarians by country is inexact. The first is that census data collection is uneven and therefore cannot be reliably compared between countries. There is also some amount of research that shows that people will exaggerate their age as much as they do their incomes and the frequency with which they have sex. People over 100 receive much attention, which is a good reason for people who are in their late 90s to lie.
24/7 Wall St. used OECD data to determine health care spending as a percentage of GDP, average life expectancy, and GDP per capita for the countries on this list. The data on centenarians came from census bureaus and government agencies from the various countries. There is every reason to believe that as the availability of modern medicine becomes widespread, the concentration of people that are over 100 years old in non-OECD nations will begin to rival those who live in the developed world today.
These are the countries with the most people over 100.
8. Australia
> Number of centenarians: 3,700
> Average life expectancy: 81.5
> Annual Health Care Costs as % of GDP: 8.5%
> GDP per capita: $39,918
Despite widespread trends in unhealthy behavior, such as an obesity rate of just under 25%, Australia has an exceptionally high average life expectancy as well as a large number of centenarians. The country manages this while spending the third smallest amount as a percentage of GDP on health among the OECD countries. While the amount of centenarians in the country is the lowest on this list, according to the Australian Broadcasting Corporation, the number is expected to double by 2020.
7. Spain
> Number of centenarians: 5,891
> Average life expectancy: 81.5
> Annual Health Care Costs as % of GDP: 9%
> GDP per capita: $32,076
Spain has the highest life expectancy in Europe. The country has a single-payer health care system that is consistently ranked among the best by the World Health Organization. The country’s ageing population is clearly having a powerful economic impact on the system, however, as total expenditure on health per capita is increasing at an annual rate of 8.4%.
6. Canada
> Number of centenarians: 6,530
> Average life expectancy: 81.2
> Annual Health Care Costs as % of GDP: 10.4%
> GDP per capita: $37,808
According to Statistics Canada, the country’s national statistical agency, the senior population, or those 65 and older, will outnumber children 15 years of age or younger for the first time ever sometime between 2015 and 2021. The number of centenarians is expected to triple, and possibly quadruple, by 2036. The country is well known for its publicly funded health care system. It also has one of the longest life expectancies in the world. Nova Scotia has the greatest concentration of centenarians — 21 per 100,000, compared to the national average of 14.6 per 100,000.
5. Germany
> Number of centenarians: 8,839
> Average life expectancy: 79.9
> Annual Health Care Costs as % of GDP: 10.5%
> GDP per capita: $37,567
Germany has a relatively effective health care system. The country spends less on health care than most European nations, and the majority of money that goes into the system comes from premiums paid by workers and employers to insurance companies, not the government. It is a very different way from how many Americans think the European health care systems work. It is effective, however, and only 0.2% of legal German residents are uninsured. The most recent report concerning the number of centenarians in Germany was released in 2006, and the amount has almost certainly increased since.
4. United Kingdom
> Number of centenarians: 11,600
> Average life expectancy: 80.1
> Annual Health Care Costs as % of GDP: 8.7%
> GDP per capita: $35,917
According to the UK’s Office for National Statistics, the number of centenarians in the country has more than quadrupled since 1981, from 2,600 to 11,600 in 2009. By 2034, this number is expected to reach 87,900. In a report, the office attributes the rise in centenarians to “increased survival between the age of 80 and 100, due to an overall improvement in medical treatment, housing and living standards, and nutrition.” Although health care systems differ between Scotland, England, Wales and Northern Ireland, each is a public, government-run system. As a whole, the UK government spends one of the greatest amounts on health as a percentage of total expenditure on health compared to all OECD countries.
3. France
> Number of centenarians: 16,891
> Average life expectancy: 81.1
> Annual Health Care Costs as % of GDP: 11.2%
> GDP per capita: $33,835
France spends the second greatest amount on health care as a percent of GDP among OECD countries, behind only the U.S. The country also has the greatest number of centenarians among all European countries in the OECD. This is not surprising when considering how much the country spends on the elderly. In 2010, France spent 24.9% of GDP on the elderly — the greatest amount among all OECD countries. According to France’s National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies, the number of centenarians in the country may reach 200,000 by 2060.
2. Japan
> Number of centenarians: 44,449
> Average life expectancy: 82.9
> Annual Health Care Costs as % of GDP: 8.1%
> GDP per capita: $32,018
While Japan does not have as many centenarians as the U.S., it has a higher percentage of its population aged 100 years or more. In addition to this, Japan’s average life expectancy of 82.9 years is the longest lifespan among OECD countries. Japan has a highly efficient health care system, as well as a culture that generally promotes good health. For example, only 3.4% of the population is obese. In the U.S., 34% of people are obese. Certain areas of Japan have higher rates of centenarians than others, with Shimane and Okinawa Prefectures having the highest rates.
1. United States
> Number of centenarians: 71,991
> Average life expectancy: 78.7
> Annual Health Care Costs as % of GDP: 16%
> GDP per capita: $45,674
The U.S. currently has the greatest total number of centenarians in the world. This is in part due to the country’s large population and great wealth. The American health care system is, by most accounts, ineffective compared to other OECD countries. Each year, 16% of GDP goes to health care costs. This is the most of any OECD country. The average life expectancy for Americans is among the lower half for OECD countries, and is the shortest among countries on this list. For a certain portion of the population, however, living long is not a problem. According to projections by the Census Bureau, there may be 1.1 million centenarians by 2050 in America alone.
Charles B. Stockdale & Douglas A. McIntyre
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