Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) has decided to officially acknowledge what most economists and educated people around the world already know. The global economy has begun to grind to a halt and will only be supported by expansion in a few countries like China.
“The bank estimates expansion of 3.9 percent, down from a previous forecast of 4.2 percent, according to an e-mailed report dated today,” Bloomberg reports. The investment house blamed the usual suspects, which include the EU region sovereign debt crisis and low consumer confidence in most countries. It might have added high unemployment, which is as severe as 20% in Spain, and a residential real estate market that is still reeling in most developed nations.
Morgan Stanley particularly pointed out the U.S. and Europe as the largest drags on worldwide economic expansion. It described the two regions as “dangerously close to recession.”
There is nearly nothing new in the Morgan Stanley report. It is very late to be released, just as many downgrades of sovereign paper by Moody’s, Fitch and S&P have been. The skepticism of expert opinions about the economy grows each time a major research operation says that trouble that began early in the year is only manifesting itself now. Nothing could be further from the truth.
Douglas A. McIntyre
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