Forget about the uptick in consumer spending in July.
New data from the Conference Board shows that consumer confidence was slaughtered in August, plunging to recession-level lows. It is another indication that the US economy may have entered a new recession in June or July.
The organization reported that:
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had improved slightly in July, plummeted in August. The Index now stands at 44.5 (1985=100), down from 59.2 in July. The Present Situation Index decreased to 33.3 from 35.7. The Expectations Index decreased to 51.9 from 74.9 last month.
The markets were buoyed a bit by relatively positive data on housing from S&P/Case-Shiller, but the prices in most markets still declined year-over-year in June. The Confidence Index is a much broader measure of activity than government consumer spending and S&P housing data. And the government and Case-Shiller data look back. Conference board “expectations” look forward.
Whatever belief that the economy has begun to recover should be undercut by the Conference Board report.
Douglas A. McIntyre
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