Each morning we review our top upgrades, downgrades, and initiations from Wall Street research notes.  We then look back over these at the end of the week to more closely review calls which highlight underlying catalysts or developments that go far beyond just a one-day impact.  Many calls turn out to offer keen insight, but some get a failing grade.

This last week’s top analyst calls of the week were in the following: Activision Blizzard, Inc. (NASDAQ: ATVI); Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL); Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT); Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO); Corning Inc. (NYSE: GLW); Dunkin’ Brands Group (NASDAQ: DNKN); Lennar Corporation (NYSE: LEN); Lululemon Athletica Inc. (NASDAQ: LULU); Motorola Solutions, Inc. (NYSE: MSI); NASDAQ OMX Group (NASDAQ: NDAQ); SodaStream International Ltd. (NASDAQ: SODA); The Talbots Inc. (NYSE: TLB); Teavana Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: TEA); Tesoro Corporation (NYSE: TSO); and TiVo Inc. (NASDAQ: TIVO).

Just a week ago we evaluated the myth of The Curse of September, and so far that myth is not bucking the trend seen in the two years before this one.  We saw Credit Suisse trim GDP and the S&P 500 for 2011 and 2012, via the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE: SPY).  We even saw hedge fund bearish sentiment reach an extreme high, something which usually is a calling card for a reversal by contrarian investors.  There were quite a few analyst calls with big impacts this last week.

Activision Blizzard, Inc. (NASDAQ: ATVI) was initiated with coverage this last Tuesday with a BUY rating and a $16.00 target at Citigroup.  What makes this call so interesting is not just that the pullback this week brought it back down to $11.42 for 40$ upside to the new target.  The consensus price target is $14.35.  What is interesting here is that the $16 target is close to the cycle highs back in 2008 before the meltdown started.  With a great game line-up and with a steady revenue stream from monthly subscriptions, it makes you wonder if there is really that much upside.  That is a “Street High” target.

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) is not exactly tanking with the rest of the market each day.  Two analyst calls showed very positive trends, and one firm even hiked the target to well over $500 on the stock.

Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT) was reiterated with a “Buy” rating this last Wednesday by Argus.  The big part of the call is that it was with $19 target.  That leaves close to 80% upside if hit, and that is way above the $13.30 consensus.  It seems far too lofty for us to agree with, even if we did name it a great value tech stock.

Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) is one that everyone still seems to love to hate at the moment.  Not the firm called Auriga. It raised its rating on Thursday to Buy and lifted its $16 target to $20 for the stock.  That out to be a boost for John Chambers and his reorganization, if it goes through well.  Oh, and the stock was also raised on Friday to Sector Perform with a $17 price target by RBC Capital Markets.

Corning Inc. (NYSE: GLW) had a rough week as it forecast that its glass panel shipments are going to be soft for the rest of the year.  The glassworks leader saw its shares maintained with a Buy rating but the price target was cut to $25.00 at BofA/ML.  The larger cut came from Citigroup, which hosted the conference it presented at, and the firm cut estimates and lowered its price target objective down to $16.00.  This is still a deep value stock by our take, but as noted… There is a reason value stocks often look so cheap.  Sometimes they can be value traps.

Dunkin’ Brands Group (NASDAQ: DNKN) saw its quiet period end this week.  It was given only moderate ratings from most: Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley, Market Perform at Wells Fargo, Overweight at JPMorgan, and Neutral at BofA/ML.  The killer was the SELL rating thrown up by underwriter Goldman Sachs.  How often do you see an underwriter initiate a stock with a Sell rating after they helped bring the stock public?

Lennar Corporation (NYSE: LEN) is in the crummy business of being a homebuilder.  The last good thing that happened in this sector was, well, umm, it’s been too long to remember.  Shares fell with the market and it closed out the week at $13.48.  The price target is all the way up at $18.00 for a projected upside of 33% if it comes together.  Here is the amazing part: the consensus price target is actually above $20 on this one.

Lululemon Athletica Inc. (NASDAQ: LULU) had a negative earnings report on Friday but a very cautious call on valuations came from Credit Suisse on Thursday.  That call could have saved $3.00 a share if a buyer would have bought on Friday rather than Thursday.

Motorola Solutions, Inc. (NYSE: MSI) is not exactly as well liked as others even after its former brother was acquired.  This stock was raised to Outperform by Zacks and it was even given the Bull of the Day status.

NASDAQ OMX Group (NASDAQ: NDAQ) is another stock we consider a value stock and it has many opportunities ahead.  The current market has shares depressed and the stock’s close on Friday was $22.26 with a 52-week range of $18.61 to $29.71.  On Wednesday it was raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank with a $27.00 price target.  That still gives much upside and it is actually under the consensus price target of $28.72.

SodaStream International Ltd. (NASDAQ: SODA) has been absolutely butchered as the cult following has abandoned ship.  But on Tuesday it was raised to Overweight at JPMorgan and then again later in the week it was given bullish remarks by Oppenheimer.  At $38.75, the 52-week range is $23.15 to $79.72.

The Talbots Inc. (NYSE: TLB) had an analyst fist fight this week.  The stock was raised to Neutral with a $3.00 price target at Piper Jaffray.  Earlier in the week it was downgraded to Neutral from Buy by Stern Agee.  At $2.83 and with a 52-week range of $2.25 to $13.43, Talbot’s is one of those stories that is going to be a huge recovery trade or is one that will crash and burn.

Teavana Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: TEA) was also given a full suite of cautious analyst coverage by analysts at its underwriting firms after its quiet period ended.  Shares lost about 10% on the coverage.

Tesoro Corporation (NYSE: TSO) was Cut to Sell at Goldman Sachs on Friday and the firm gave only a $22 price target.  This is painful because many have been hoping that the refining stocks are mending their ways with oil prices and margins.  Apparently not as the $23.45 close on Friday still leaves much projected downside.

TiVo Inc. (NASDAQ: TIVO) is one of those company that many of us just cannot really figure out the value in the new digital media world.  Many are still bullish, and on Friday came the call from Brean Murray initiating coverage with a BUY rating and a $14.00 price target objective.  That is a call for close to 35% upside and the consensus price target is actually higher at $14.50.

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JON C. OGG

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