Suddenly Too Bullish on Netflix? (NFLX)

Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) was one of our own thirteen worst big equity stories of 2011 yet it is currently the best performing non-merger stock of the S&P indexes in 2012.  Now things are acting like they have changed about as much and about as fast as the notion that the United States no longer has to worry about nor about what happens to the European Union.  Some of the enthusiasm is bottom fishing and some may be pipe dream buying now.

Value investor Whitney Tilson has been very positive of late saying on CNBC that the shares could continue to drive even higher and that it is very attractive for a multi-year horizon. 

Now The Street has a poll showing that Netflix could hit $150 this year.  If so, Netflix could still double from its lows.  The news is on the heels of its U.K. and Ireland launch.  The same survey also showed that a small percentage of respondents (14%) believe that the stock will drop to under $50.00.

Netflix is a great company that was derailed by management missteps and by a maturing model as far as growth rates.  Whether or not a buyout can come its way, there are too many buried shareholders who would have a serious case against Reed Hastings and the company if it suddenly accepted a buyout at the market price.

After an 11% gain to $96.00 today, Netflix shares are suddenly up about 38% from the ending close of 2011.  To imagine that this lost 77% from its peak in the second half of 2011.

JON C. OGG