Investing

New Lower Fed Long-Term Targets: Employment, Inflation, GDP & Rates

The Fed is going to continue on its dual-mandate of inflation and employment as it stated that it will take a balanced approach to maintain price stability and to promote employment.  While inflation targets are being set at 2% longer-term, the Fed now sees lower growth, but sees a lower jobless rate with steady prices.

The core inflation (ex-food and energy) projections are:

  • 1.5% to 1.8% in 2012
  • 1.5% to 2.0% in 2013
  • 1.6% to 2.0% in 2014

The headline inflation rate projections are as follows:

  • 1.4% to 1.8% in 2012
  • 1.4% to 2.0% in 2013
  • 1.6% to 2.0% in 2014

For Jobless rate expectations, the new projections are as follows:

  • 8.2% to 8.5% in 2012
  • 7.4% to 8.1% in 2013
  • 6.7% to 7.6% in 2014

Here is the U.S. GDP expectation ranges:

  • 2.2% to 2.7% in 2012
  • 2.8% to 3.2% in 2013
  • 3.3% to 4.0% in 2014

Here is the expectation ranges for when the first rate hikes will come up:

  • 2 of 17 officials: sometime in 2016
  • 4 of 17 Officials: sometime in 2015
  • 11 of 17 Officials: sometime in 2014 Or Later
  • 3 of 17 Officials: sometime In 2013
  • 3 of 17 Officials: sometime In 2012

JON C. OGG

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