Surviving the S&P 500 Drop, Critical Chart Buy/Sell Pivots (SPY)

The stock market has been soft all morning and traders are trying to find support and trying to determine whether or not it will hold up this Monday. We are tracking the daily buy/sell pivot points on the SPDR S&P 500 (AMEX: SPY) as the most liquid equity ETF on the market to help traders and investors avoid buying at the wrong time or shorting just before a intraday rally.

Erlanger Value Lines are designed to identify key levels for the intraday trader or for anyone trying to establish a new position during trading hours. The Value Lines fall into three categories: Support and Resistance, Extreme values and Range values. From a practical point of view, the Value Lines can act as targets and triggers for short-term trades.

Some think it is uncanny how these levels stop or turn back short-term price swings. We do not. Why? Because both high frequency traders and program trades have built these levels into their models which cause them to gravitate to resistance, pivot or support along with range values like the 5 and 60 minute ranges. We have compiled here the daily chart, the daily analysis for traders to use, and then we have followed it with a general guideline after the daily commentary along with a sample chart.

For this Monday’s S&P 500 SPDR chart analysis, Phil Erlanger said, “Friday saw the SPY close pivot to support despite advancing by 0.77%. This morning all indexes and SPY have broken support.  Use the 5 minute high on SPY to nibble on the long side which is $132.01 if you wish to be aggressive. IF the Health Care Reform Law is overturned as many expect this morning, then we could move back above support and have an intraday reversal. Less aggressive traders should use support to establish long positions $132.82.”

The Erlanger Value Lines can be accessed via Erlanger Chart Room. The daily service gives investors and traders access to critical buy/sell levels on the S&P 500, NASDAQ, DJIA, Oil Services Index, gold & silver, any index or equity, as well as analyzing short-squeeze opportunities and more. For more information we direct you to sign up here.

General Notes:

• If price moves above the red Resistance value line, then the intraday bias turns positive:
• A positive bias reflects times when only long trades are considered.
• If price moves below the green Support value line, then the intraday bias turns negative:
• A negative bias reflects times when only short trades are considered.

Additional general notes for how to use these charts:

• If price remains within the green Support and red Resistance value lines, then the bias is neutral. The pivot line can be used to establish an intra Value Lines bias. Pivot to Support is negative and Pivot to Resistance is positive.
• If price remains within the first hour high and low value lines, then the bias can also be viewed as neutral. This is especially true if the first hour range is inside the range set by the support and resistance value lines:
• A neutral bias reflects times when both long and short trades may be considered or (depending on the traders style) a time for no trading. All Erlanger Value Lines can be used as short term target levels. This is especially true if a few are clustered together.

June 25, 2012

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