June Retail Sales Headed for Modest Gain

Retailers will be announcing June same-store sales this week, and industry research firm Retail Metrics is now predicting sales growth of just 1% for the month. The past weekend’s storms on the East Coast and the impact of tropical storm Debby in Florida had marginal impact on the month’s sales, which were already expected to be soft. The most recent projection is down from an earlier forecast of 1.1% growth

Excluding the effects of Walgreen Co.’s (NYSE: WAG) of its Express Scripts Inc. (NASDAQ: ESRX) prescription drug business, projections for department store sales have dropped by 0.6% since the beginning of June to an expected growth of 1.7%. The forecast for Kohl’s Corp. (NYSE: KSS) dropped to -2.5%, while Macy’s Inc. (NYSE: M) is expected to post growth of 2.4% and Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN) is expected to improve by 0.2% from earlier expectations.

The TJX Companies Inc. (NYSE: TJX) and Ross Stores Inc. (NASDAQ: ROST) forecasts improved by 20 basis points since the end of last week. Other retailers helping to prop up the sector are Michael Kors Holdings Ltd. (NYSE: KORS) and Zumiez Inc. (NASDAQ: ZUMZ).

Weighing the sector down are O’Reilly Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ: ORLY), Bed, Bath & Beyond Inc. (NASDAQ: BBBY), and Abercrombie and Fitch Co. (NYSE: ANF).

Paul Ausick