Ahead of Earnings Season, S&P Chart Tests Support (AA, JPM, SPY)

Most investors are back from a long holiday and having to digest waves of bad news from companies and from government economic reports.  And now we even have Alcoa, Inc. (NYSE: AA) kicking off earnings season as the first DJIA component today and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) reporting earnings as the first financial DJIA component to report earnings on Friday.  The charts are trying to tell you something here ahead of earnings season!  We are tracking the daily buy/sell pivot points on the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSEMKT: SPY) as the most liquid equity ETF on the market to help traders and investors avoid buying at the wrong time or shorting just before a intraday rally.

For Monday’s S&P 500 SPDR chart analysis, Phil Erlanger said, “Friday saw the SPY close below support. It was a classic example of when SPY breaks support you do not buy until it moves back above support. Today SPY is trading support to pivot. Support is being tested and needs to hold and then move above the 5 minute low if a reversal is going to take place. The five minute low is $135.32.”

The Erlanger Value Lines can be accessed via the Erlanger Chart Room. The daily service gives investors and traders access to critical buy/sell levels on the S&P 500, NASDAQ, DJIA, Oil Services Index, gold & silver, any index or equity, as well as analyzing short-squeeze opportunities and more. For more information we direct you to sign up here.

Erlanger Value Lines are designed to identify key levels for the intraday trader or for anyone trying to establish a new position during trading hours. The Value Lines fall into three categories: Support and Resistance, Extreme values and Range values. From a practical point of view, the Value Lines can act as targets and triggers for short-term trades.

Some think it is uncanny how these levels stop or turn back short-term price swings. We do not. Why? Because both high frequency traders and program trades have built these levels into their models which cause them to gravitate to resistance, pivot or support along with range values like the 5 and 60 minute ranges. We have compiled here the daily chart, the daily analysis for traders to use, and then we have followed it with a general guideline after the daily commentary along with a sample chart.

General Notes:

• If price moves above the red Resistance value line, then the intraday bias turns positive:
• A positive bias reflects times when only long trades are considered.
• If price moves below the green Support value line, then the intraday bias turns negative:
• A negative bias reflects times when only short trades are considered.
• If price remains within the green Support and red Resistance value lines, then the bias is neutral. The pivot line can be used to establish an intra Value Lines bias. Pivot to Support is negative and Pivot to Resistance is positive.
• If price remains within the first hour high and low value lines, then the bias can also be viewed as neutral. This is especially true if the first hour range is inside the range set by the support and resistance value lines:
• A neutral bias reflects times when both long and short trades may be considered or (depending on the traders style) a time for no trading. All Erlanger Value Lines can be used as short term target levels. This is especially true if a few are clustered together.

July 9, 2012