Leading Economic Index Slides, Growth at Snail’s Pace

The Conference Board released the June reading for its Leading Economic Index this morning, showing a slight decline of -0.3% to 95.6. The index rose 0.4% in May after dropping -0.1% in April.

A Conference Board economist noted:

The strengths among the leading indicators have become less widespread as consumer expectations and manufacturing new orders offset gains in the financial, labor, and construction-related components. Meanwhile, the coincident economic index, a measure of current economic conditions, has risen slowly but steadily in the last three months.

Of the ten indicators included in the index only four were higher in June than in May: the interest-rate spread, weekly manufacturing hours, credit and new manufacturing orders for consumer goods and materials. New business orders, consumer confidence, and building permits were all weaker in June.

The group’s coincident index rose 0.2% in June, on the heels of a 0.4% rise in May and a 0.2% rise in April. The coincident index reading is now 104.5.

The US economy continues its halting growth pattern. Unfortunately, there are no indications that the pace will pick up any time soon either.

Paul Ausick