S&P Chart Braces for FOMC (SPY)

Stocks are higher after a better than expected ADP private payrolls report, but it still feels like the market is looking for direction after a weak ISM reading ahead of the FOMC announcement later today. What do you do when markets are looking for direction? You watch those charts closer than ever! Today we are tracking the daily buy/sell points on the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSEMKT: SPY) as the most liquid equity ETF on the market to help traders and investors avoid buying at the wrong time or shorting just before a intraday rally.

Erlanger Value Lines are designed to identify key levels for the intraday trader or for anyone trying to establish a new position during trading hours. The Value Lines fall into three categories: Support and Resistance, Extreme values and Range values. From a practical point of view, the Value Lines can act as targets and triggers for short-term trades.

Some think it is uncanny how these levels stop or turn back short-term price swings. We do not. Why? Because both high frequency traders and program trades have built these levels into their models that cause them to gravitate to resistance, pivot or support along with range values like the 5 and 60 minute ranges. We have compiled here the daily chart, the daily analysis for traders to use, and then we have followed it with a general guideline after the daily commentary along with a sample chart.

For Wednesday’s S&P 500 SPDR chart analysis, Phil Erlanger said, “Tuesday we were trading pivot to support when we wrote. The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) opened a two day meeting and we noted that markets could remain range bound. Further we stated, ‘A test of support at $138.19 seems to be plausible as that would not be a very big drop from where we are right now at $138.35.’ This is exactly what happened as we closed below support. Today we are trading pivot to resistance. Today is a tough one to call as the FOMC announcement will be out at 2:15 p.m. EDT. We prefer to wait until the dust settles but watch for a break of resistance if the SPY is above resistance at 2:15 p.m. Resistance is $138.48.”

Monday we were range bound pivot to resistance. A rather boring session with no signals triggered. Today we are trading pivot to support. The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) opens a two day meeting and we could remain range bound. A test of support at $138.19 seems to be plausible as that would not be a very big drop from where we are right now at $138.35.”

The Erlanger Value Lines can be accessed via Erlanger Chart Room. The daily service gives investors and traders access to critical buy/sell levels on the S&P 500, NASDAQ, DJIA, Oil Services Index, gold & silver, any index or equity, as well as analyzing short-squeeze opportunities and more. For more information we direct you to sign up here.

General Notes:

• If price moves above the red Resistance value line, then the intraday bias turns positive:
• A positive bias reflects times when only long trades are considered.
• If price moves below the green Support value line, then the intraday bias turns negative:
• A negative bias reflects times when only short trades are considered.
• If price remains within the green Support and red Resistance value lines, then the bias is neutral. The pivot line can be used to establish an intra Value Lines bias. Pivot to Support is negative and Pivot to Resistance is positive.
• If price remains within the first hour high and low value lines, then the bias can also be viewed as neutral. This is especially true if the first hour range is inside the range set by the support and resistance value lines:
• A neutral bias reflects times when both long and short trades may be considered or (depending on the traders style) a time for no trading. All Erlanger Value Lines can be used as short-term target levels. This is especially true if a few are clustered together.

August 1, 2012