The latest outlook survey by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) indicates that economists see a “tepid, albeit improving” outlook developing for the United States.
Respondents to the October survey expect inflation-adjusted growth in gross domestic product of 1.9% in 2012, then rising to 2.4% for 2013. That’s less than the pace of growth expected in the group’s May 2012 survey, when economists forecast 3.1% growth by the end of next year. But growth is expected to improve with each succeeding quarter.
However, NABE’s survey forecasts an uptick in the jobless rate to 8.1% in the fourth quarter, then eventually falling to 7.8% by the end of 2013. Monthly job growth in 2013 is expected to average 155,000 nonfarm payrolls.
As for consumer spending, the panel of 44 professional forecasters sees growth of 1.9% in 2012, followed by 2% for 2013.
The survey also predicts housing starts at 750,000 units in 2012, compared with a forecast in May of 720,000. Starts will hit 850,000 in 2013, respondents said.
The economists on average do not expect the so-called fiscal cliff to materialize, the survey found. But the views of NABE panelists varied widely on the future of various tax cuts.
Thank you for reading! Have some feedback for us?
Contact the 24/7 Wall St. editorial team.
Latest from 24/7
