Ten Things That Could Wreck the Bull Market

Investing

Published: March 30, 2013 8:00 am

Last Updated: March 18, 2020 9:10 pm

The markets closed out the first quarter of 2013 with a big rally and the bulls seem to remain in charge. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is up more than 11% and the S&P 500 is up 10% so far in 2013, and they are both at all-time closing highs. We recently gave our synopsis showing the road map for the bull market to continue in April, but we also want to be open to the obvious and less obvious risks. Unfortunately for the market bulls, there are two sides to a coin.

24/7 Wall St. wants to cover the other side of the bull market coin. The saying goes, “Bull markets often crawl up a wall of worry.” Here are 10 serious considerations that those of us who remain bullish on stocks need to keep in the back of our minds. We have looked at the year-to-date changes for much of the analysis, and historical data or color has been added elsewhere.

1. The Ticker Tape and Market Internals: For starters, when markets hit all-time highs, the ticker tape and market internals come into focus. The S&P 500 took more than two weeks of challenging the all-time high before closing above it, even though the DJIA already had broken out. In fact, it looks like the S&P was within 10 points of the all-time closing high for almost three weeks before punching through. Some may question that the ticker tape is not as strong as you might expect. DJIA stocks are up year-to-date by a ratio of 14:1, but the S&P ratio is close to 7:1 year-to-date. Capital inflows into stocks have been monumental, but they seem to have slowed. Even with the normal bump at the end of a month and start of a month from 401K monies, what if that starts to peter out? It takes money to make money, and it actually does require inflows to keep driving up stock prices. What if the “sell in May and go away” theme comes early this year?

2. The European Follies: That darned European situation just refuses to go away. First it was all the woes of the PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, Spain). But in 2013 suddenly Cyprus matters. This inconsequential island nation is just not very relative. Outside of being an offshore banking mecca and a tourist destination, and having a British naval base, this nation should have no importance at all. Unfortunately, that is now the world we live in. Imagine if Spain, Italy, Portugal or Greece were suddenly back in the soup. They at least matter compared to Cyprus. A Dow Jones headline caught our attention: Greek Retail Sales Plunge 15.7% as Country Enters Sixth Year of Recession. Any new spike higher in interest rates around the PIIGS, or any other unwelcome growing anti-austerity measures, could tip Europe again. If Europe unexpectedly gets far worse again all of a sudden, kiss our great U.S. bull market bye-bye.

3. Employment and Economic Reversals: What if the employment data really does get wrecked by the spending sequestration? This is a low probability because sequestration was really just cutting the growth of spending rather than cutting actual spending. But what if employment just reverses again? The validity of the 7.7% unemployment rate from February can be debated, but that was still the best reading in four years. What if companies just start laying workers off or have furloughs for, say, the entire slow summer period? It seems unlikely, but it is possible. The equity markets would not respond positively if the official unemployment rate gets back up around 8%.

4. QE-Exhaustion: Ben Bernanke and friends are printing up more money than you can fathom. The bond buying alone is $85 billion or so per month in the United States. Throw in whatever the Japanese are doing now to end their two-decade period of no inflation and no growth. What if the funny-money stimulus measures start to end or taper off? This is not expected, but you cannot imagine that the central bankers really will live up to their promise of signaling when the end or tapering will come about. Bernanke likely will not say, “Soon, soon, getting closer, getting much closer, almost there, really almost there, OK NOW!” The market has many theories about how global quantitative easing will end. No one really knows, but if not handled properly it could be shocking.

5. International Bad Boys: The United States and the developed world have two serious bona fide financial enemies. A nuclear Iran is something that no one wants. What happens when the world wakes up to the headline “Iran Successfully Tests First Nuclear Bomb” one day? Then there is North Korea. The new leader, Kim Jong Un, has just stepped up his saber-rattling with more nuclear threats. They cannot afford to give their citizens enough food, but they can still threaten to use their nukes. Iran and North Korea remain risks, and they are likely secular risks. And what about America’s other nemesis? Al Qaeda and other offshoot terrorist groups are still a threat. We will no given them any ideas to consider, but neither will we ever forget them as a risk.

6. Bank and Financial Regulation: Investors still want to talk up bank stocks. Meredith Whitney says Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) will hit $15 and Dick Bove says it will hit $30. But what about the Dodd-Frank implementation and the Volcker Rule? What if the banks really do have to stop trading in the financial markets? There are trillions upon trillions of dollars of over-the-counter derivatives still outstanding that would have to be unwound. Maybe the regulation is more ruse and threat than real, but this remains a risk. Congressman Peter Defazio is out with yet another trading tax as well. What if that socialist effort takes on more steam this time around because Defazio became less stupid by proposing a watered down tax effort this time? It seems unlikely, but that is another risk to the banks.

7. Earnings Season: What if earnings season starts out poorly? Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) kicks off earnings season, and it may be very short of “with a bang” this April. Alcoa is down 1.5% so far in 2013, while the S&P 500 is up 10%. How great are its earnings expected to be? Many other companies may report what are very choppy earnings in the first quarter. All of those preparations for the fiscal cliff had some lingering effect in the business world, even if the stock market discounted it. Then there was sequestration of the federal budget, which may still have some impact even if it is the cutting of spending growth versus actual spending cuts. See below about the dollar, but currencies could alter guidance negatively as well. Many companies could have very choppy earnings. Oracle Corp. (NASDAQ: ORCL) was a disappointment that the market was not braced for. What if there are more of the major DJIA and S&P 500 stocks that have unexpected negative news lurking?

8. King Dollar: U.S. companies hate when the U.S. dollar strengthens too much. Japan decided that Johannes Gutenberg’s Bible-printing efforts could be applied to the yen. The demise of the yen has taken it from about 78 yen/dollar in October up to 96 before settling in at about 94 for the end of March. The Europeans just cannot keep things marching smoothly for more than a month or two at a time it seems. In January the euro rose to above $1.36, but now it is closer to $1.28, and the chart still points as though $1.25 or even $1.20 are possible. A strong dollar hurts American companies wanting to export goods and services because it makes our goods more expensive. That ties into earnings above, but watch for companies to start complaining about currency again.

9. Buzzkill of Apple and Facebook: Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) has gone from the darling of Wall St. to the ugliest pig in a prom dress. After the monumental rise that led it to be the largest company by market cap, Apple is now down 37% from its peak and is about 16% lower year-to-date. The Facebook Inc. (NASDAQ: FB) IPO also was a total disaster, and the stock is down 45% from the peak of the IPO. After an initial trick into thinking that Facebook’s stock was back, its guile and charm quickly turned into deceit. Facebook shares are down more than 21% from the highs in January, and the stock’s recent weakness has it close to a 2013 low, and shares are now down almost 4% so far this year. Both of these investments could keep pushing the so-called millennials even further away from ever wanting to buy stocks. These may seem like outliers, but psychological damage can take many years to recover from.

10. The Wild Card(s): The last thing that can come up and wreck the great bull market is simply the unknown. We have argued for quite some time now that the markets have lost their ability to predict and price in events. So whatever the next trouble is, the market may not even know about it. Financier and billionaire George Soros once wrote, “Contrary to the tenets of market fundamentalism, financial markets do not tend towards equilibrium; they are crisis prone.”

OK, so now you have 10 real-life issues or risks that are threats to the bull market to consider. The charts are signaling that the bull market likely is not dead. The fundamentals look better than they did a quarter ago as well. But history has taught us over and over that the tide can change suddenly. There are probably 20 other serious risks that investors have to consider on top of this. We just wanted to offer some of our top concerns as you try to navigate the current bull market.

There are two sides to a coin, and we wouldn’t want you thinking we only have pom-poms for cheering those bulls three months before the festival in Pamplona begins.