Investing
The Nine Most Promising Big Turnarounds of 2013 (BBRY, BBY, BSX, GME, GNW, GMCR, HPQ, NFLX, RSH)
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So far, 2013 has been a great year for equity investors. With both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 Index trading up in the double-digits, we wanted to take a look at those companies that were taunted and beaten throughout 2012 and that have posted a significant recovery for the brave investors who pointed their thumbs up at a wave of pessimism.
We would caution that some of the turnaround stocks have not yet truly turned around. Efforts have been made, progress is at least apparent and shares have risen handily from the lows. We credit much of this to the major bull market. Investors have to remember that in good times it is often the market’s ugly ducklings and sloppy pigs that rally more than the best and safest companies.
24/7 Wall St. wants to warn that any (and maybe even all) of the turnarounds of these companies could again flop. Some of the long-term pressure may have been economic, some might be execution. In more than one case for sure, it may just be that the world’s habits and preferences have headed in a different direction.
What these companies have in common is strong performance year-to-date and off of the lows of 2012. They also all have what would be considered as mid-cap or large-cap market valuations, or their sales are high enough that they would be in that range if they were profitable. Another common trait is that the pressure these companies have felt has been a multiyear issue. Lastly, they are all liquid and have large short interest.
Our take is that each of these companies could have even further significant upside in its stock if the turnarounds can continue. That being said, we have doubts on many of these. and we would warn risk-averse investors that big risks face each and every one of these companies either in the near-term or in the long-term.
BlackBerry (NASDAQ: BBRY) is perhaps the most obvious turnaround in progress (or in waiting) of the lot. This company peaked during the first part of the recession and then started to really come unglued after 2010. It fell from grace despite having the best security for its enterprise smartphone customers that exists. The name change of the company was a move to distance it from the past. The BB10 is still in its infancy, and the company claimed to have its largest distribution order ever at 1 million units. So what is wrong or can go wrong? It remains up for debate just how much the BB10 will sell in a smartphone world that has migrated to Android and iOS phones. To imagine that the company allowed itself to get in this position seems almost too hard to believe, but it happened. If the company’s turnaround continues, it seems that it will be the international base rather than the U.S. customer base that made that happen. With shares around $15 now, the stock has recovered almost 150% off of its post-crash lows, even though they are up “only” 25% since the end of 2012. Imagine how much more upside this stock has if BB10 starts to win back customers from Android and iOS. That being said, BB10 remains a point of debate as to the success from all sides.
Best Buy Co. Inc. (NYSE: BBY) is still trying to turn its ship around, and it is far from being out of the woods. That being said, rumors of its death and demise probably were overblown, even if its founder Richard Schulze is merely returning to the company rather than coming back with a formal takeover of the company. The recent recovery may not be so much tied to consumer electronics, Apple goods and PCs. Its expanded efforts at attractive home appliances is being tied in right at the time that housing is starting to really explode again. The company also is doing price matching now to fend off the consumers who walk into Best Buy and then use the real showroom as a virtual showroom at Amazon.com and other popular websites. Discounting iPads and key products, and opening a Samsung store within the store, are being well received. With another double-digit gain on Thursday to more than $25, Best Buy’s stock has now recovered a whopping 120% from the lows of late 2012 and is actually up more than 100% year to date.
Boston Scientific Corp. (NYSE: BSX) was just downgraded, or we might not have even bothered to look at the turnaround because shares remain so muted compared to the past. That being said, new management is more focused and the downgrade was simply because the stock was approaching the firm’s upside price target. The reality is that shares are up 65% from the lows of 2012, and Wall St. is getting more comfortable with the story, compared to under prior CEOs. The market value today is back above $10 billion. Now that the stock is about 2% shy of $8.00, this is actually a three-year high on the stock. What is so interesting is that revenue is expected to be flat or even down slightly this year and up barely 2% next year. Maybe there is an unknown catalyst we have lost sight of, or maybe the hope is that one more structural effort will tip things into its favor. We would note that the consensus price target is $7.72 and the highest street analyst target price is $10.00. It is hard to imagine that this medical device maker’s stock is up 35% so far year-to-date. Shares are now up more than 60% from the lows of 2012, which makes this up that much from a five-year low as well.
GameStop Corp. (NYSE: GME) was supposed to be left for dead. So can someone venture a guess as to why the stock hit a 52-week high above $31 on Thursday? Actually, make that a four-year high! Isn’t streaming video games to avoid the retail channel going to get them? Aren’t all the freemium tablet and smartphone games, plus all those free social games on Facebook and Zynga, supposed to be the 800-pound gorilla that GameStop cannot fight? Now a new series of gaming console upgrades later in 2013 and 2014 has the short sellers reconsidering the demise of retailers selling video games. The company is doing more virtual communication and delivery efforts of its own as well. GameStop posted a quarterly income gain of 9.5% to $262.3 million, despite slightly lower sales in its fourth quarter, and last year it spent more than $400 million buying back stock with the signal that it intends to use its cash to keep buying back stock with another $400 million approved for such use. As far as the relative stock performance, that is up about 20% year to date, and the stock is up nearly 100% from the summer doldrums of 2012.
Genworth Financial Inc. (NYSE: GNW) is the one financial player on the list of turnarounds due its size and to it not being a bank. It is also diversified. We are still awaiting many issues around mortgage insurance (GMICO) exposure, as well as what units really will be sold off or spun out of the parent. That being said, Genworth recently announced the full execution of its mortgage insurance capital plan. The company now claims to have cash and highly liquid securities of about $950 million in the holding company, and it said that it contributed $100 million to GMICO on April 1. If it turns out later this year and next year that Genworth truly has this mortgage insurance mess behind it and fully executes what will be noncore assets ahead, then Genworth could still be a homer. We would note that the stock is down about 10% from the peak of March. However, Genworth shares are still up around $9.40, and that translates to gains of 25% year to date and gains of about 130% from the summer of 2012.
Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (NASDAQ: GMCR) was the most aggressive of the high-flying coffee plays that ever existed after the recession to 2011. But when the valuations became stretched and when partnerships could not help accounting, management and growing pain issues, the rug was pulled out from under it. After peaking at more than $110 in 2011, this stock spent two months in 2012 down under $20, versus about $55 today. It turns out that the patent expirations and deals that were under question may have been overblown. Will that last ahead? It is hard to know, but its chart has only pulled back marginally and its uptrend of the past six months has not yet been violated. It is almost hard to believe, but earnings and revenues are both expected to grow in the double-digits in 2013 and 2014. The share price is up almost 35% year to date, and the stock is up a whopping 220% from the lows seen of the summer of 2012. The only “chart meets reality” concern now is that the shares are now back up to the consensus analyst price target.
Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ) is still very hard to call a great turnaround on the surface. Just look at the PC numbers, the death of Palm, the death of the Autonomy valuation, the ouster of Mark Hurd and on and on. The good news is the fresh reporting of the resignation (let’s be honest and call it a self-realized ouster) of Ray Lane as chairman. What is so hard to grasp is that HP admitted that it was too costly to break its businesses apart to be of use. It is even harder to imagine that Meg Whitman was able to sell shareholders that she would not assure turnaround results until 2015 or 2016. That being said, this is the only DJIA stock that fits the criteria of being a top turnaround. The share price up at $22.30 may be way ahead of the actual turnaround developments, but a higher dividend yield coming and a P/E ratio of 6 may offset many growth concerns. But note that HP’s consensus analyst price target is down closer to $19 as more proof that turnaround buyers got ahead of the story. Still, HP is up a whopping 57% so far year to date, and the stock is up almost 100% from the 2012 lows.
Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) was a Carl Icahn Hail Mary that has worked out handily. CEO missteps over subscription and pricing models hurt, then losing content deals hurt. Even a pre-SEC social media communication approval, Reed Hastings jeopardized his position as CEO by communicating growth numbers improperly. Now all of a sudden Reed Hastings has Carl Icahn and others as cheerleaders. He has recaptured the Disney content, and the international expansion is still there for the taking while the North American market continues to grow for the media delivery. A 15% pullback in a week is not too aggravating when you consider that the stock was up about 100% in the first quarter and has risen close to 300% from trough to its recent peak. We still have valuation concerns here and still have concerns about its cost of operations in 2014 and beyond. That being said, its stock sure seems to want to discount much of that.
RadioShack Corp. (NYSE: RSH) is one that we just almost cringe at the thought of calling a successful recovery. We would simply point out here that this is a situation where investors are betting with enough dollars that whatever turnaround plan that will be formalized actually works, or at least stops the bleeding. With a new solid CEO, our key-man concern is that RadioShack hired a guy with a drugstore background. Maybe it is that no one else was willing to gamble on a career here. We remain doubtful, unless RadioShack will open a prescription drug delivery service as well. However, the stock’s performance has been far more impressive than the doubts we have been public about, even though we have been critical since the stock was well above $10.00. Even with shares having pulled back more than 20% from the March peak to about $3.10 now, RadioShack shares are still up 46% year to date and up more than 63% from the lows of late in 2012.
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