J.P. Morgan Now Projects Stronger Q2 GDP

We saw that the firm’s new target is 2.0% for second-quarter GDP. The prior target was 1.5%, although the firm did caution that it is still very early in the quarter to be ratcheting the expectations higher. Today’s seasonally adjusted retail sales figure was $419.03 billion, and that was actually up 3.7% in raw dollars from a year ago in retail and food services.

The report said:

The strength in the April figure was fairly broad-based, with particularly good gains reported for retailers of building materials, clothing, general merchandise, and non-store retailers (primarily internet). Even motor vehicle and parts dealers saw a 1.0% increase, in spite of an already-reported decline in automaker unit sales. The picture on the consumers’ response to the beginning of the year tax increases has now done a complete round-trip. At first, initial January and February data indicated a surprising degree of resilience; March data and downward revisions then appeared to reveal a significant weakening in consumer spending. Now, with the latest data, consumers’ once again appear unfazed by the fiscal restraint that took place earlier in the year.

As a reminder, consumer spending accounts for what is generally accepted as 70% of GDP throughout the year. If retail sales are coming in much stronger than expected, then it becomes close to certain that GDP will be better than expected as well.