Brocade Communications Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: BRCD) was once a great growth engine and a great prospect to be acquired. Now the storage and networking player is being evaluated unfavorably on a standalone basis, and the old hopes of a buyout are becoming a very distant memory. The analyst team at Morgan Stanley downgraded Brocade on Wednesday from an already cautious Equal Weight rating, the equivalent of Neutral or Hold elsewhere, to Underweight.
What has happened to Brocade is that it has been mostly forgotten about. Growth of earnings and revenue largely have disappeared. Revenues are expected to be down 2% to $2.19 billion in 2013, according to Thomson Reuters, and the consensus estimate is for sales to grow less than 1% to $2.21 billion in 2014. Earnings came to $0.66 per share in 2012, and the consensus earnings estimates are $0.65 for fiscal 2013 and $0.66 for fiscal 2014.
About the only good news here is that Brocade now trades at less than 10 times earnings. The drop of 2% to $5.26 puts shares back in the middle of its $4.18 to $6.44 trading range over the past year. Brocade is still worth only $2.4 billion, so it also trades at only about one times sales. The reality is that this value stock may now just be a value trap.
Analysts elsewhere are just not optimistic either. Goldman Sachs maintained its dubious Sell rating earlier this month, followed by a William Blair downgrade to Underperform from Market Perform. The consensus price target at Thomson Reuters appears to be about $6.12 as of now. None one of those endorsements exactly have the ring or tune of a big buyout heading the way of Brocade shareholders.
Networking and storage were both great growth engines at one point and consolidation was rampant in the field. That was then, but the now is just a period of no growth being met by valuation hope.
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