The drastic pullback in the S&P 500 has the usual people starting to warn about a market crash, or an emerging market meltdown. Noted bear Bill Fleckenstein said to look out for the 30% market correction. Nouriel Roubini, often referred to as Dr. Doom, said to beware the emerging market disaster and a bubble in China. This is the kind of rhetoric we heard zero of last year as the market was up 30%, the most since 1997. It has only ratcheted up in the past week and becomes more shrill as Wall Street bears go out on the prowl.
24/7 Wall St. has constantly reminded readers to scale into any new purchases, and keep cash handy for a pullback. We have also cautioned that rising interest rates will damage, and perhaps finally end, the 30-year bond market rally. With positive signs in the economy and the first look at fourth-quarter gross domestic product at 3.2%, a market crash is unlikely. A 10% correction is very possible.
The equity team at Jefferies has pulled their best ideas for clients to review while the market is mired in a sell-off. These focus stocks to buy represent the best value the firm has been able to screen for. They may provide investors with an entry point that is much more enviable now than a month ago.
Biogen Idec Inc. (NASDAQ: BIIB) continues to show the strength of its incredible pipeline. While some on Wall Street were less than impressed with the quarterly results, many firms including Jefferies remain very positive on this biotech giant. The Tecfidera launch continues to outperform in the United States, and the next major catalyst is the European launch in 2014. Jefferies expects the company to be more aggressive with pipeline acquisitions within its existing focuses. They still see upside in Tecfidera and 2014 guidance as solid but beatable, and they also believe that Wall Street underestimates the multiple sclerosis drug Tysabri and hemophilia prospects. Jefferies raises its price target to $358 from $318. The Thomson/First Call consensus target is $318.08. Biogen closed Thursday at $318.28
Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) rattled Wall Street with forward expectations and cash flow, causing a large drop in the index. Jefferies see trends for solid profitability and growth into 2016. The firm also thinks it is important to note that 787-9 unit costs have declined 25% from unit 1 to 4, costs are coming down on the 747 and the recent machinists union agreement benefit has not been fully quantified. Shareholders are paid a 2.1% dividend. The Jefferies price target is $165, and the consensus figure stands at $153.74. Boeing closed Thursday at $126.53.
Facebook Inc. (NASDAQ: FB) blew out earnings for the third quarter in a row and was up more than 15% after the gigantic earnings. The company has totally revamped its mobile advertising arm, and the efforts are paying off big time. Every metric from the most users to margin expansion to soaring ad revenues has Wall Street buzzing about the stock. The Jefferies price target for the social media giant jumps to $80 from $60. The consensus estimate is at $61.19, but that will go higher. Facebook closed Thursday at an astonishing $61.08.
Fortinet Inc. (NASDAQ: FTNT) also reported stellar earnings, and traders responded in a very positive way. The cyber security company reported its third consecutive strong quarter with healthy billings upside; revenue and earnings also exceeded estimates. The company is on a firmer footing and has seen return from recent reinvestments in the form of billings acceleration, and this dictated the 2014 outlook, which does include a higher rate of spending. The Jefferies team thinks this was somewhat expected, and with the potential for incremental growth reacceleration, they believe the stock retains a favorable risk/reward. The Jefferies price target is $25, and the consensus is set at $24.61. Fortinet closed Thursday at $22.14.
GNC Holdings Inc. (NYSE: GNC) is a name in which Jefferies really says buy the pullback. The analysts find the recent pullback in GNC unjustified. The company does not carry the holiday risk of other retailers, its 40% stock move over the past year has been earnings driven (rather than valuation run-up) and its new Gold Card is just hitting stride. Trading at only 14.2 times 2014 price to earnings, the stock is now at the lower end of its valuation range and is the best growth at a reasonable price (GARP) play in the Jefferies retail group. Investors are paid a 1.1% dividend. The stock is a top franchise pick, and Jefferies has a $68 price target. The consensus figure is $68 as well. GNC closed Thursday at $50.85. A move to the target would represent a 30% gain for investors.
Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) posted incredible fourth-quarter numbers and continues to grow vertically in almost every conceivable area. The sale of the Motorola Mobility unit to Lenovo was seen as a good step for the company, despite the perceived low sales price. Jefferies analysts think that Google’s exit from the handset business should strengthen Android by reducing the risk that handset makers will deploy competitive operating systems. With Android in the lead position for the foreseeable future, the firm thinks iOS can continue to focus on the mid to high end. Importantly, Google maintains ownership of (most of) Motorola’s deep patent portfolio. The Jefferies price target is raised to $1,300, and the consensus is $1,217.93. Google closed Thursday at $1.135.39.
Qualcomm Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM) bucked the smartphone decline trend and posted strong earnings yet again. Not only did the company report solid fourth-quarter results, its expanding LTE business combined with its consistent chip sales and royalty payments bodes well for hitting 2014 expectations. Investors are paid a 1.9% dividend. The Jefferies price target is posted at $86.00 and the consensus is lower at $78.16. The stock closed Thursday’s trading at $73.26.
There is no reason to think we are out of the woods when it comes to the probability of a substantial correction. It always makes good sense when building a portfolio to take advantage of price drops in strong long-term franchise names. Scaling in some cash to quality stocks after significant sell-offs helps to balance overall portfolio cost basis.
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