The bull market is now more than five years old, and getting a repeat performance of almost 30% in the S&P 500 in 2013 seems next to impossible for 2014. Investors get to hear all sorts of analyst calls that are about stocks to buy. The ratings are generally called Buy, Strong Buy, Conviction Buy, Outperform, and the like.
What investors rarely get to hear about is when an analyst believes it is time to sell or avoid a stock. 24/7 Wall St. has tracked many new analyst calls issued by brokerage firms and research firms that feature stocks to sell.
Investors have to keep in mind that many brokerage firms do not have formal Sell ratings. Their “sell” ratings may be disguised as Underperform or Avoid, but these are lingo terms for Sell ratings. Sometimes Sell ratings are based on valuation, and sometimes they are based on new information that has changed a company’s outlook for the worse.
These are this last week’s key Sell ratings, and their equivalents, we tracked that were issued in Wall Street research notes.
Albany Molecular Research Inc. (NASDAQ: AMRI) took it on the chin on Friday after the contract research and manufacturing company for drugs was downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Sterne Agee. While shares had recovered off the low, the stock still traded down about 10% at $17.90 in late-Friday trading. It closed at $19.91 prior to the downgrade, and the 52-week range is $8.92 to $19.10.
BlackBerry Ltd. (NASDAQ: BBRY) remains a huge battleground stock, with some investors still questioning whether the company is even viable long-term. After the company announced that it has a buyer for its real estate, the CLSA (Credit Agricole) team issued an upgrade Friday morning that felt like no upgrade at all. It raised BlackBerry’s rating from Sell to Underperform with a $6 price target. BlackBerry shares were at $9.42 around the call, so it projected a loss of one-third of the value. What kind of upgrade is that? It feels like moving from a Strong Sell to a Less-Strong Sell rating.
Michael Kors Holdings Ltd. (NYSE: KORS) was started as Underweight at Barclays, and the price target was put at $85, versus a $98.56 close. This is the equivalent of a Sell rating, and the consensus price target is closer to $105. Barclays now matches the street’s lowest analyst price target. Shares were trading at just under $99 late on Friday, implying that much of the damage may have been deemed as a one-day (so far) event.
Again, these Sell ratings and their equivalents were based on outside analyst calls from Wall Street brokerage and research firms. Prices were as of mid-afternoon on Friday rather than the closing price.
Orbitz Worldwide Inc. (NYSE: OWW) was already lagging travel site peers in its cautious rating of Neutral, but then Goldman Sachs went from cautious to just negative by downgrading Orbitz to Sell last Wednesday. Goldman Sachs even dropped the price target to $8.00, versus what had been a $14.20 price target before the downgrade. Orbitz fell to $8.13 from $8.95 on the call, and the stock was around $8.05 in late Friday trading.
Shutterfly Inc. (NASDAQ: SFLY) was downgraded to Underperform from Outperform and the target price was slashed to $39 from $57 (versus a prior $50.43 close) at Cowen and Co. This firm had been a long-term bull before jettisoning its bias last Tuesday. While an Underperform rating is the equivalent of a Sell rating by almost every mean, this had the sound of a “Strong Sell and Run for the Hills!” call. The consensus price target was closer to $57, and the prior lowest analyst price target was $47. Shutterfly shares were up on Friday, but they were still right around $46 in late trading.
Symantec Corp. (NASDAQ: SYMC) is now in an unforgiveable position — not doing well with Norton when data security remains a top national concern. Oh, and it fired its CEO. MKM Partners downgraded its rating to Sell from Buy on Friday after the disappointment, but the reality is that there were at least seven downgrades we saw, and even more firms than that lowered estimates and targets. This is a true disaster, and the stock hit a 52-week low that broke under $18 on Friday, even though the stock made a bit of a recovery from the morning lows.
Talisman Energy Inc. (NYSE: TLM) was started as Sector Underperform at CIBC World Markets on Wednesday. Having closed at $9.86 before the call, it has a 52-week range was only $9.73 to $13.38. Shares were down only about 1% on the news, but to start coverage at an Underperform right above the 52-week lows of any stock sure sounds like a Strong Sell rating from a firm that does not officially have “Sell” as a rating. Talisman shares were back above $10 in late-Friday trading — maybe CIBC had its charts upside down.
Walgreen Co. (NYSE: WAG) managed to stand up rather well after being downgraded to Sell from Hold at Cantor Fitzgerald on Friday. The main point was that the run-up in the shares was not justified. What stood out the most in this call was that the downside price target was put at $50, versus a prior closing price of $66.50. Shares were down only about 0.5% in trading late Friday, around $66.10.
Walter Energy Inc. (NYSE: WLT) was maintained as Underperform by Merrill Lynch Thursday in a call that was far worse than a reiteration is supposed to sound. Walter Energy’s price target drop was so bad that this would be counted as a “Screaming Sell” if such a rating existed. The target was cut to $2 from $8, after shares previously closed at $9.09. The loss estimates were basically doubled as well. Walter fell from more than $9 on the call to almost $7 before recovering. Shares were back up above $7.50 in late-Friday trading. Still, this was a 75% slash in the target price based on more and more poor coal industry pricing ahead.
WisdomTree Investments Inc. (NASDAQ: WETF) was downgraded to Sell from Neutral last Wednesday at Citigroup, after shares had nearly tripled from the bottom of 2013. This exchange traded fund had previously risen handily because of the hedged-Japan ETF during the rise of its quantitative easing. That trade has now played out. Citigroup said there is little room for error in its valuation of almost 40 times earnings. Shares fell from almost $14.25 to under $13.50 on the call, and shares were still closer to $13.30 in late-Friday trading.
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