Two factors are about ready to collide, and if history is any guide, the outcome could be ugly, at least for the short term. Since 1960, there have been only three years when the market did not experience a 5% correction at least once. Add to that, at 1,950 the S&P 500 is trading at 17.5 times trailing earnings and 15.8 times forward earnings. The trailing number is 1.4 points higher than the average posted since 1960, and the forward figure is 1.7 points higher.
Highlighting this data in a new research report, the equity strategy team at Deutsche Bank offers investors a good path to take. With the median price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of most stocks and sectors entering their lofty 1997 to 2000 trading range, they say to overweight financials and underweight energy stocks. They also say to focus on the low P/E leaders.
Here are the top names to buy now from the Deutsche Bank S&P 500 Big and Low Basket. These stocks have big earnings weights in the index and low P/E ratios.
Cisco Systems Inc.‘s (NASDAQ: CSCO) recent earnings surprise helped to lift the stock after many disappointing reports over the past year continued to disappoint investors. Following up its solid quarter with another round of good earnings would be extremely encouraging, and higher spending levels could be just the ticket. We noted in a recent story that the networking giant could prove to be a good match with Rackspace as it is expanding its business in scale all over the globe. In addition, changes in technology make adding a large cloud computing entity a smart move for the Silicon Valley veteran. With more than $50 billion in cash, needless to say the company has the wherewithal to get a deal done. Investors are paid a 3% dividend. The Deutsche Bank price target for the industry network leader is $30. The Thomson First Call price target is $25.43. Cisco closed trading Friday at $24.70 a share.
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Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) has been a poor performer this year for investors and portfolio managers, down more than 10% year-to-date. The bank trades at an incredible 9.5 times forward earnings and is down 16.3% from highs printed last year. With loan activity and other banking services starting to ramp up as the economy improves over the second half, adding this quality large cap bank to a portfolio at an incredibly low price now makes good sense. Investors are paid a tiny 0.1% dividend. The consensus price target for the stock is $58.14. Citigroup closed Friday at $47.59.
Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) is a top brand name recognized by customers, and the iconic company remains America’s best-selling vehicle brand. The company’s F-150 truck remains the top-selling truck and has almost gained mythical status in some parts of the country. It has avoided some of the negative headlines that have plagued its competition, and the aging of the American consumers’ vehicles should help to keep sales strong for the foreseeable future. Investors are paid a respectable 2.9% dividend. The consensus price target for Ford is $18.53. The stock closed Friday at $16.56.
Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) is another old-school tech name that has had an outstanding run over the past year. With new leadership in place, and an apparent pickup in what had been poor PC sales, the company may be poised for an even better future. The company’s new Surface Pro 3 may become a hit with consumers, but the hybrid device has already been well received by early adopters in the health care industry. Seattle Children’s Hospital, one of the top children’s hospitals in the United States, recently selected the Surface Pro 3 to replace its existing laptops for electronic medical records management. Investors are paid a solid 2.7% dividend. The consensus price objective is $42.10. Microsoft closed trading Friday at $41.23.
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Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) trades at a low 14 times earnings and is very cheap to the overall market. The company updated investors and physicians at a recent conference on the Phase 2 trial results on palbociclib for advanced breast cancer. The doctors on the breast cancer panel at the conference were much more optimistic than previously about the possibility of palbociclib being filed and approved on Phase 2 data in first line advanced breast cancer. Encouraging preliminary/interim overall survival data was presented at AACR conference in the spring. Investors are paid a 3.5% dividend. The consensus price target is $34.55. Pfizer closed Friday at $29.53.
Prudential Financial Inc. (NYSE: PRU) is a top insurance name to buy that trades at a low 9.3 times forward earnings. With multiple products offered to clients, the company is a financial services leader with more than $1.1 trillion of assets under management as of December 31, 2013, and operations in the United States, Asia, Europe and Latin America. Investors are paid a 2.4% dividend. The consensus price target is $99.35. Prudential closed Friday at $88.14.
Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ) is the large cap leader in the telecommunications sector. It is also a top holding now for many of the top mutual fund and hedge fund portfolio managers. Verizon and Netflix have been feuding in recent weeks over which company is to blame for slow streaming speeds for programming. Now, government regulators are stepping in to figure out who is really at fault. The outcome could prove to be interesting. Investors are paid a 4.3% dividend. The consensus price target is $53.85. Verizon closed Friday at $49.18.
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While the Deutsche Bank correction data are ominous, they also point out that corrections tend to be fast, usually taking about 28 trading days. There could be a quick dip this summer before the market continues the slow grind higher to 2,000 on the S&P 500. Investors may be well served to take some profits and have cash ready to add these low P/E earnings leaders.
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