The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has finally hit the 17,000 mark! This is after new highs have been hit many times in 2014. Though 17,000 may not be a significantly important reading on a true technical analysis level, it is a key psychological hurdle that will only help investors at the retail level. Now it is time consider what can get to the DJIA not just to 18,000, but up to 20,000!

The message from 24/7 Wall St. is not one of panic — even if each new milestone brings an opportunity for profit taking. By our reading, DJIA 17,000 seems to be just one of the road bumps along the way to DJIA 20,000. Amazingly, it will only require that 10 or 11 of the 30 DJIA components will take us to DJIA 20,000. Is it possible for only 10 or 11 stocks to rule an entire index? Absolutely!

24/7 Wall St. does not expect DJIA 20,000 to be hit in 2014, and maybe not even before the end of 2015. What investors need to consider is that DJIA 20,000 is only 17.6% higher. As long as a sensible market occurs, even with corrections here and there, the Dow 20,000 level might be expected as soon as the end of 2015 or the early part of 2016. In this light, we have created a key DJIA analysis on a stock-by-stock basis.

As to why the index growth only needs 10 stocks or so to rally to 20,000, the DJIA is weighted in an old-fashion price-weighted calculation. A $200 share price for a DJIA stock is worth four times that of a $50 stock, even if that $50 stock is worth 10 times more in the market capitalization than the $200 stock. If it just boils down to a stock price, then about a third of the 30 DJIA stocks matter.

IndexArb.com projected as of Thursday that the top 10 DJIA components by index weighting (again, those with the highest share prices) account for 53.16% of the entire DJIA. The top five components also account for 31.99% of the index. In fact, the top 15 of 30 DJIA stocks by weighting account for 70.54% of the entire index, and the bottom five DJIA stocks only account for less than 6% of the entire index weighting.

Don’t get tricked into thinking this is wild euphoria. Getting the DJIA to 20,000 of course implies that the bull market continues. Should you expect corrections along the way? Absolutely, even if we have yet to have a meaningful stock market correction in far too long now. There is a saying that goes “Bull markets climb a wall of worry.” It is true, but we just have not had a 5% or 10% stock market correction in too long to easily count. This forces investors in when they don’t feel like they are getting to buy on a bargain.

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This bullish case will also require that U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) growth resumes in 2014. Furthermore, it requires that the global GDP story recovers into 2015 and into 2016. In short, that quantitative easing in Europe and Japan make gains, and that growth policies in China and India are allowed to continue. Also keep in mind that the 17,000 hurdle was on the back of the best jobs report from the Labor Department since back in 2008.

24/7 Wall St. has provided a bullish case using the highest analyst price targets from Thomson Reuters to see how high the DJIA can go. After looking this over, DJIA 20,000 looks realistic. We have also included a synopsis of what will drive each stock.

Visa Inc. (NYSE: V) remains the largest weighting in the DJIA, at 8.13% now that shares hit $215. This stock price makes Visa the most important Dow stock, even if it is not the most important systemic stock in the economy. Its consensus price target is almost $250, but the highest analyst price target is all the way up at $289. Visa would rally more than 15% if it hit the consensus target, but the street high call of $289 is close to a 35% gain. Imagine if the top DJIA component by weighting rallies 30% or more — it is DJIA gold!

For Visa’s bullish scenario to come about, the global consumer spending growth and the use of plastic over cash has to remain on track. Perhaps the merchant service swipe fee issue needs to be set in stone, but the reality is that plastic is used increasingly and cash is used less and less. Also, there is room for Visa, MasterCard and American Express to all keep growing — no zero-sum game needed here. We also hope that Visa will increase its dividend to a more respectable level as well, and we would point out that at about 20 times expected 2015 earnings the stock is not cheap.

International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE: IBM) is now ranked number two with a 7.13% weighting. IBM was the top weighting prior to Visa being added to the Dow in 2013. IBM’s share price of $187 has remained boring. The consensus price target is almost $192, but the highest price target is all the way up at $225. The base case rally is less than 5% now to the consensus price target, but the best case rally is now up more than 20% to the $225 share price. Again, the DJIA would only have to rise 17.6% to hit 20,000.

For IBM to help lead the DJIA to 20,000, the company needs to hit that $20 in earnings per share goal earlier than the end of 2015. Then it needs to adopt a more top-line growth strategy — it is not expected to grow revenues, so it has to surprise. This will require a resurgence in IT spending globally, the NSA fears have to fade further into the past, Watson will have to make a more meaningful top-line contribution and efforts in storage and cloud will have to be winners. IBM trades around 9.5 times expected 2015 earnings expectations, so it looks cheap, as long as you don’t forget that the reality is that IBM is a value trap today. Still, what if investors were willing to pay 12 times or even or 13 times future earnings for Big Blue? If you saw IBM rally toward $225 again, chances are high that it means analysts would then be calling for $250.

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Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) is the third largest DJIA component, but it is larger than the other “banks” in the Dow. Its weighting is 6.31%, yet it has no formal banking operations. With shares at $167, it has a consensus price target of $173, which implies upside of only about 3%. But the highest analyst price target of $200 (was $205 two weeks ago) would imply upside of just under 20%. Again, the Dow has to rise only 17.6% to hit 20,000.

The most bullish scenario for Goldman Sachs would imply perhaps that not all trading is regulated out of the systemic firms. Perhaps high-frequency trading is not killed entirely, and IPO, secondary and bond market underwriting will have had to remain robust. Another wild card is that perhaps interest rates do not rise to the point that its vast bond holdings are devalued too much. Goldman Sachs also will need to keep a grasp on employee compensation. One additional change needs to take place, but that may take another year or two: banks and brokers need to be able to partially depeg their stock price from the book value per share. Now consider that Goldman Sachs trades at only 10 times expected 2015 earnings, and it can greatly improve (exponentially if it wanted to) on its paltry 1.3% dividend yield.

3M Co. (NYSE: MMM) is only about 40% of the size of General Electric by market cap, but its weighting in the DJIA of 5.49% is more than five times that of GE’s 1.0% weighting, due to that silly share price method of indexing. 3M’s shares traded around $144.50 recently, and its consensus target price is closer to $146.50. The street-high analyst target is up at $160, for a gain of close to 2% on the consensus target and more than 10% to the highest case.

The most bullish case for 3M may involve the company using its equity as a currency to make an accretive acquisition, perhaps even a tax-friendly deal, as has become popular of late. 3M may even need to keep beating its earnings estimates. Keep in mind that 3M trades at 17.5 times forward 2015 earnings per share estimates. Investors will have to remain confident that valuations are not getting stretched in conglomerates and industrials.

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Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) ranks fifth among the DJIA stocks, with a 4.93% weight. This is a full 1% higher weight than Exxon Mobil, yet Chevron’s market cap of $250 billion is still barely half that of Exxon Mobil’s $447 billion. Chevron’s $131 share price would generate gains of basically zilch to the $131.70 consensus. Still, the $145 street-high target implies gains of more than 9%.

Chevron’s upside case hinges on higher oil prices remaining the norm rather than the upside. This implies $100 to $110 per barrel, as well as solid global opportunities, and with fracking and offshore opportunities remaining available. Chevron also seems cheap at less than 12 times expected 2015 earnings. Imagine what happens if you get “earnings multiple expansion” to 15 times earnings. Dividend hikes also will have had to remain a key policy.

Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) is the sixth largest Dow stock by weighting, with a 4.83% figure. With shares pulling back to $128, the consensus price target is now almost $154. The street-high target is $175. This implies an upside of 20% to the consensus price target and implies a top-end current expectation gain of more than 36%.

The upside case for Boeing is one in which global airplane demand remains strong, and perhaps military spending remains stable, even if it is not robust. The privatization of space and ongoing government space contracts are also needed here. Boeing also trades at close to 15 times expected 2015 earnings, so the company will have to keep surprising on earnings and keep raising its dividend.

United Technologies Corp. (NYSE: UTX) is the seventh highest weighting, at 4.36%, of the DJIA. A share price of $115.50 compares to a consensus price target of almost $129 and a street high of $138. The consensus target would imply upside of close to 12%, but the street-high target implies upside of more than 19%.

The bullish case for United Tech is one in which the company keeps finding selective opportunities to drive earnings higher. Could that be via accretive acquisitions or tax-friendly “inversion” deal-making”? UTC trades at almost 15.5 times expected 2015 earnings, so investors will perhaps need to accept the “earnings multiple expansion” story here and be willing to pay up more for solid industrial earnings. Another improvement that will likely need to be seen is a higher payout than its 2% dividend yield.

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Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) is the eighth largest DJIA stock by weighting, at 4.14%. With shares now around $109.50, the consensus price target is about $112 and the street-high target is $125.00. This implies an upside of barely 2% to the consensus and almost 15% to the highest analyst price target.

Caterpillar has surprised over and over in this year as the top DJIA stock of 2014. Caterpillar’s key growth markets are not even close to being in full recovery. The bullish case for Caterpillar is one in which South America, China, India and other growth markets come back to near capacity again. Another boost would be if it can surprise with earnings and live up to its ambitious stock buyback. Just keep in mind that the industrial equipment giant is already at 15 times expected 2015 earnings.

Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) has continued to grow, and the $105.50 share price gives it a 4.00% weighting as the number-nine DJIA stock. Its consensus price target of $106 is effectively no real gain expected, but the street-high target of $117 would generate upside of right at 12%.

The upside surprise scenario here is one where product lawsuits and product quality control issues continue to dribble off with the passing of time. Earnings surprises will be a must, and the company may need to consider some of the current trends of tax-friendly accretive acquisitions where possible. At 16.5 times expected 2015 earnings, J&J seems priced aggressively, except for the notion that the market pays up for defensive stocks right now. Still, company must not miss many steps in the next couple years or so, and that 2.7% dividend yield will need to keep ticking higher.

Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) is the 10th highest index weighing in the Dow. It seems odd that its weighting is 3.84%, versus 4.93% for Chevron, when you consider that Exxon Mobil’s market cap is over two-thirds again that of Chevron. Still, at $102 it is above its near-$101 consensus price target by just 1%. The $115 street-high target price from analysts would generate upside of 12.7%. Exxon also now gets the Warren Buffett boost here, now that Berkshire Hathaway is a big shareholder.

Exxon faces many of the same challenges and opportunities as the smaller Chevron. Its bullish scenario requires high oil prices, international opportunities and offshore and fracking to continue bolstering the U.S. energy story. Exxon’s bullish strategy also is one in which it needs to start making real money ahead from its huge natural acquisition of XTO. Another need is for its proven reserves to remain steady or to grow. Exxon also ought to keep lifting its dividend. The stock trades around 13.5 times expected 2015 earnings. Imagine if investors are willing to pay closer to a market P/E multiple here again.

McDonald’s Corp. (NYSE: MCD) is almost exactly the same weighting as Exxon Mobil. Its stock price of $100.50 gives it a weighting of 3.80%. The consensus price target of $106.78 implies an expected upside of more than 6.2%. Still, the street-high price target of $120 implies the best case upside currently of almost 19.5%.

McDonald’s has been stuck of late, and it already trades at more than 16 times expected 2015 earnings (and trades at a seemingly high 17.5 times expected 2014 earnings). For McDonald’s to achieve an upside or best case scenario, the company will have to prove that it can make the same money and keep the same interest in healthier choices in the United States. That has been elusive so far. International growth in Latin America, China and India needs to come into play as well.

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So, these are just the 11 largest DJIA components. The best analyst targets average between 15% and 20% higher, some significantly higher. Suddenly, a gain of 17.6% to get to that 20,000 DJIA mark doesn’t seem unreasonable. Those targets also do not include dividend payments. Even though the focus has just been on the largest DJIA components by weighting, the expectation is that a rising tide lifts most ships, and that means that a couple surprises from the lower DJIA components will only help to make 20,000 more realistic.

Getting the Dow to 20,000 will not be a simple feat. If Europe and Asia get back to more normalcy, and if the current bull market remains even modestly in place, the DJIA could quite easily reach 20,000 over the next two years or more.

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