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Short Sellers Get Aggressive in Defensive High-Yield Dividend Stocks

The short interest data for the June 30 settlement date is out, and there were selectively an increasing number of shares short in our go-to list of defensive high-yield stocks that are not utility stocks. The gains were mild in some and massive in others.

We look at this sector’s short interest because the premium valuations in defensive stocks can come under question if the market gets too frothy and at risk of a long overdue stock market correction.

24/7 Wall St. would remind readers that short selling a high-dividend stock takes much more conviction and courage than short selling other stocks. The short seller also assumes the liability of paying that dividend out on top of just the cost to borrow a stock.

This is how the short interest played out in defensive stocks outside of the utility sector. Again, this is paramount because these are the stocks that investors may flock to if they become too worried about a rekindled banking shock in Europe or a yet-again slowing growth story in China and Asia.

Altria Group Inc. (NYSE: MO) had been seeing large gains in the short interest, previously at the highest short interest of both 2014 and over the past year. That reversed itself handily by the end of June, with the June 30 short interest falling to 20,873,376 shares from 23,090,116 shares short as of June 13. That is a drop of 9.6%.

Altria’s yield is down all the way to just under 4.5%, now that shares hit a new all-time high above $43. Also keep in mind that rival merger news is picking up again, and there is talk that Altria could monetize its minority stake in SAB Miller.

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AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) saw its short interest rise only 0.5% from the middle of June to the end of the month. The short interest was 191,553,699 as of June 30, versus 190,671,337 shares as of June 13. AT&T’s dividend yield is 5.2%, and it is valued at only 13 times expected 2014 earnings.

AT&T’s dividend still looks safe with or without the DirecTV buyout, and AT&T was one of our 10 highest-yielding dividends that are safe to hold.

General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) saw its short interest fall by a slim 1.6%, down to 68,273,172 shares short on June 30 settlement date from 69,368,486 shares short on June 13. GE’s common stock dividend yield is 3.35% now that shares have pulled back to the $26.20 area.

On GE, we would look for some potentially big changes as this IPO of the U.S. consumer finance unit comes closer. Whether the short interest rises or falls depends largely on how the market perceives the partial exit strategy.

Kimberly-Clark Corp. (NYSE: KMB) saw another large jump in its short interest, up another 8.3% after a prior 13.5% jump. The June 30 short interest was 6,538,475 shares, versus 6,036,009 shares short as of June 13. Short sellers must think that 18.5 times this year’s expected earnings per share is too high now that shares have approached and hit that $113 mark.

Also, keep in mind that in Kimberly-Clark the end of May had the lowest short interest in a year. The consumer products giant’s dividend is now just barely under 3%.

Merck & Co. Inc. (NYSE: MRK) saw its short interest rise again, but only by 3% this report, versus a gain of almost 14% in the prior report. That was a short interest of 34,275,172 shares on June 30, versus 33,266,511 shares short as of June 13. Merck’s dividend yield is 3.0%, and it is valued at almost 17 times expected 2014 earnings, with no underlying growth story.

Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) saw a very large jump in the short interest — to 65,672,029 shares short as of June 30 from 56,730,101 shares short as of June 13, a gain of almost 16%. Pfizer shares are now back up to $30, and the stock looks cheap compared to Merck now at only 13.4 times expected 2014 earnings per share, and with a 3.5% yield.

Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSE: PG) had already seen a large snap-back in the short interest in the prior mid-June period with a gain of 11%, but now the short interest screamed massively higher to the point that one might question what took place here. The June 30 short interest was 26,620,618 shares, versus 17,288,510 as of June 13.

This gain of more than 9.33 million shares short in Procter & Gamble represented a massive 54% jump. P&G’s dividend yield is 3.15%, and the stock trades at an expensive 18.7 times a blended earnings estimate (blend of June 2014 and 2015 year-end).

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Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ) had previously seen a negligible 0.3% gain in the short interest in mid-June, but this rose by almost 4% to 37,854,350 shares short at the end of June. Verizon’s dividend yield is currently much lower than AT&T’s at just under 4.3%, and Verizon trades at a slightly higher earnings multiple of 14 times expected earnings for 2014.

 

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