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3 DJIA Stocks at Real Risk of Hitting 52-Week Lows
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Investors seem to have grown accustomed to seeing the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) hitting new high after new high in 2014. Only the recent market volatility has created a situation where some of the best-performing stocks got to pull back. Most Dow stocks remain very close to 52-week highs and all-time highs — except for three, and those three are very close to having a dubious honor of hitting new 52-week lows.
It turns out that the negative trends and negative performance of shares of McDonald’s Corp. (NYSE: MCD), Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) may just be too strong for these companies to escape. With the DJIA at almost 17,000 again, it doesn’t seem like we should be seeing 10% of the major index at levels close to 52-week lows. Yet here we are.
24/7 Wall St. has taken several views on each of these three Dow stocks to see how investors should view them. First is a 3,000-feet view of what factors surround each company. Another approach is a view of key headline and actual news that has been released in the past couple of weeks or so. The last view is the other side of the coin, via the silver lining, or what investors may ultimately take away as good news.
A last issue is that the rising tide has lifted all ships. That is, the strong market recovery on Monday morning that is due at least in part to no further escalation of Russia-Ukraine tensions over the weekend. We have shown how shares were up on Monday in midday trading and how that compares to the 52-week range. We even included the market cap and its expected annual sales for the current year.
McDonald’s
McDonald’s Corp. (NYSE: MCD) was trading at $93.79 on Friday, only 1.7% above its 52-week low of $92.22. The nation continues to punish McDonald’s over two issues. First is that the company just cannot seem to migrate its image away from fast junk food to fast healthier food. News about low wages in the fast-food industry continues to have McDonald’s in its sights because it is the largest fast-food chain by far.
Recent earnings trends indicate that McDonald’s has hit a growth stall for the past two quarters. Its same-store sales trend was atrocious for July. Forbes recently said that it is 10 times more likely that McDonald’s equity will go down rather than rising to new highs, and it warned that sales could fall for the first time in a decade. This number is hurt further by its global sales declining after a recent food scare in China. A FINVIZ.com analyst screen showed that Baird downgraded McDonald’s to Neutral from Outperform in late July, and also that Standpoint Research issued a Strong Sell rating at the end of May.
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The good news or silver lining is that, while McDonald’s may have its share of problems, it still has serious a growth opportunity in China. It also out-yields almost all restaurant chains with a 3.2% dividend yield. Lastly, and sadly for upper management, is that the company’s shares likely will rise if the company names a new CEO or announces restructuring in its senior management again. Also, the stock’s consensus price target of $101.80 would not even pass up the 52-week high of $103.78.
McDonald’s stock was up 0.8% at $94.55 in midday trading on Monday, versus a 52-week range of $92.22 to $103.78. McDonald’s is worth $93 billion in market cap, and its total revenue for this current fiscal year is expected to be $28.4 billion.
Pfizer
Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) just seems to be lost since its failed tax-inversion attempt. The stock was at $28.64 on Friday, only about 3.1% above its 52-week low of $27.76. What is obvious here, on top of an endless restructuring among U.S. big pharma operations, is that investors just do not want to pay up for no real growth. Pfizer is valued at a discount to the broad market at less than 13 times next year’s earnings. Its 3.5% dividend yield is among the best of the DJIA. Still, the earlier attempts this summer to break above $30 failed — and failed miserably.
Pfizer has been fighting a legal battle against consumers of its cholesterol-lowering drug Lipitor. This is one of a few adversities that Pfizer has faced recent. In addition, Pfizer attempted to purchase the British firm AstraZeneca in an effort to reincorporate abroad to invert its U.S. corporate taxes.
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The good news or silver lining is that Pfizer’s $28 level on the chart just recently acted as support, and that was also support back in September of 2013 as well. Another issue is that Pfizer’s dividend yield is high enough, and given its forward earnings valuation, it may offer a better bottom-fish purchase opportunity than rivals. Lastly, the $34.02 consensus price target implies that Pfizer could generate 20% returns to shareholders with its dividend included. Jefferies even said it was a top franchise with a stock too cheap to ignore.
Pfizer shares were up 0.8% at $28.85 in midday trading on Monday, in a 52-week range of $27.76 to $32.96. The pharmaceutical giant is worth $182 billion in market cap, and its total revenue for this current fiscal year is expected to be $49.6 billion.
Wal-Mart
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) just cannot seem to get anything good going for its shareholders. The most recent earnings report showed what has effectively no growth to speak of. Same-store sales growth continues to underperform, and it seems obvious that the company’s raw size may make it only able to capture some of the dollar-store traffic in its smaller format stores. Consider this: Walmart may be getting out-discounted by discounters. With shares at $73.90 as of Friday’s close, the stock price was only 3.3% above its 52-week low.
Walmart lowered the outlook on profits for this year, considering this previous slow quarter. The cold weather earlier in the year had a negative impact on Walmart, helping to build a glut in its inventory that was further exacerbated by a stagnating July in retail sales. This, coupled with more of its employees signing up for health care coverage, was pointed to as hurting the company’s bottom line. An analyst screen at FINVIZ.com showed that Standpoint Research initiated a Strong Sell rating on Walmart back at the end of May when shares were north of $75.
The good news or silver lining is that Walmart almost certainly will remain the top shopping destination of Americans for years to come. It has also been clearing out its summer inventory. The company is under new leadership for its key U.S. stores. Walmart is a well-established destination, and it is not expensive at only 13.5 times next year’s expected earnings. Walmart is ultimately on its way to generating $500 billion in annual sales. Lastly, Walmart’s consensus price target of $80.00 is still $1.37 shy of a 52-week high.
Walmart shares were up 0.9% at $74.55 in midday trading on Monday. The retail giant’s 52-week trading range is $71.51 to $81.37. Walmart is worth $240 billion in market cap, and its total revenue for this current fiscal year is expected to be $487 billion.
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