Despite a recent pullback, the bull market is more than five years old and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is up in 2014. The pullback has been less than 2% from all-time highs, but not all Dow stocks are participating in this year’s bull market. In fact, eight of the 30 DJIA stocks were recently trading with negative total returns in 2014 — accounting for the share price drop and still including the dividend payouts.
After taking a look over the Dow’s laggards in 2014, it turns out that many of the companies are those you would assume are having problems from labor and/or poor sales trends. 24/7 Wall St. wanted to review the worst DJIA stocks so far this year.
The emphasis here is, of course, what is acting as a drag against each negative Dow performer. What we did after that was to see if there is an opportunity in that weakness. It turns out that there are some good things that may minimize some of the concerns. We reviewed the share price and performance against a trading range, and we looked at things like the dividend yield and implied upside to the analyst price targets. Share prices are as of Tuesday’s closing bell.
These are the worst-performing DJIA stocks so far in 2014.
McDonald’s
> Loss in 2014: 1.2%
> Dividend Yield: 3.40%
> Share Price: $93.51
> Mean Price Target: $98.93
> 52-Wk. Range: $90.53 – $103.78
> Market Cap: $92 billion
McDonald’s Corp. (NYSE: MCD) is a company that truly feels lost. The current management team has labor issues to deal with, and the company’s move to a “healthier” offering of food items just hasn’t seemed to attract the winners once hoped for. A spate of negative same-store sales trends has not helped, and it is almost as if there is a risk that 52-week lows could come up again. The stock is not even cheap at 16 times next year’s consensus earnings estimates and 17 times trailing earnings. Still, there are some positives. The 3.4% dividend yield outpaces peers handily, and analysts see more than $5 in upside.
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American Express
> Loss in 2014: 1.9%
> Dividend Yield: 1.20%
> Share Price: $88.31
> Mean Price Target: $98.52
> 52-Wk. Range: $72.08 – $96.24
> Market Cap: $93 billion
American Express Co. (NYSE: AXP) will not be deemed a loser in the trends toward Apple Pay, something that some market observers thought may be a problem. Despite having pulled back 8% from its highs, AmEx remains at a market premium valuation compared to many traditional financial stocks. Another issue is that AmEx has a mere 1.2% dividend yield, which feels low given its premium client base compared to other credit card issuers. After all, it caters to wealthier clients but offers far from a wealthy dividend. The good news here is that analysts still see about $10 worth of upside in the stock. Another boost is that its largest long-time holder is Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway.
Walmart
> Loss in 2014: 2.1%
> Dividend Yield: 2.60%
> Share Price: $75.60
> Mean Price Target: $80.17
> 52-Wk. Range: $71.51 – $81.37
> Market Cap: $244 billion
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) is another Hall of Shame Dow stock. The company’s ongoing labor woes are a constant struggle, but its flat and disappointing sales trends only highlight that the days of growth may be largely over. A move to compete with the dollar store theme does not exactly sound like the retailer is in a great place, and it may not be enough to move the needle. There are still some good things here. Analysts see upside, and the stock’s forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is only about 14. Another boost is that its 2.6% dividend yield is above some of its peers. Lastly, you know Walmart has been an aggressive buyer of its own shares in recent years, and Walmart recently named Greg Foran as its new President and CEO of Walmart U.S.
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Exxon Mobil
> Loss in 2014: 3.1%
> Dividend Yield: 2.80%
> Share Price: $96.03
> Mean Price Target: $102.89
> 52-Wk. Range: $84.79 – $104.76
> Market Cap: $410.14 billion
Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) just recently fell on hard times because its arctic venture in Russia has fallen victim to U.S. sanctions against Russia. Exxon stock was weak ahead of that news as well, in part due to the declining oil prices from summer’s peak. That drop in price eats directly into the profits of many key wells. Another drag is that Exxon has never seemed to capture a home run on its natural gas operations, not yet at least. There are some good things here — analysts still see upside and Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has become a large, multibillion dollar stakeholder. Its dividend has close to a 3% yield, and Exxon has been aggressive in buying back stock over the years.
Visa
> Loss in 2014: 4.1%
> Dividend Yield: 0.80%
> Share Price: $212.46
> Mean Price Target: $250.68
> 52-Wk. Range: $180.11 – $235.50
> Market Cap: $133.71 billion
Visa Inc. (NYSE: V) has underperformed American Express in 2014, and it holds an even less attractive 0.8% dividend yield. Still, the company has massive room to raise that dividend. Visa is also far from cheap in valuation at 20 times next year’s expected earnings and almost 25 times trailing earnings. Another risk is that it has the largest weighting of the DJIA by far, which can make it drag down (or pull up) the index based on the direction of news. Because it has only been a Dow stock for a year or so, many investors still might not identify it as a DJIA stock yet. The good news here is that the more than $20 pullback has left much upside in the stock. Also good news is that each new Visa account from emerging and developing markets is one more source of revenue as the world moves to being a cashless one.
ALSO READ: The Best Performing DJIA Stocks of 2014
General Electric
> Loss in 2014: 4.8%
> Dividend Yield: 3.50%
> Share Price: $26.02
> Mean Price Target: $29.91
> 52-Wk. Range: $23.50 – $28.09
> Market Cap: $261.38
General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) has found itself in a conundrum. The company has reached an agreement to unload its appliances unit and it has completed the first stage of exiting such heavy exposure to the U.S. consumer finance with the recent IPO of Synchrony Financial. The Alstom acquisition hasn’t managed to excite investors yet, even if it will help GE get a higher earnings multiple as an industrial conglomerate. A win here is that GE leads conglomerates in dividends with its 3.5% dividend yield. GE is also cheap against the market at just over 14 times next year’s earnings estimates. GE had the first real win in the new class of nuclear reactors, which could add billions in orders down the road. Lastly, GE has one of the highest analyst upside targets, with more than 15% upside, before considering the dividend. As we have said, the GE of 2016 will be grossly different from the GE of 2006 or 1996.
Boeing
> Loss in 2014: 5.0%
> Dividend Yield: 2.40%
> Share Price: $127.38
> Mean Price Target: $152.95
> 52-Wk. Range: $113.34 – $144.57
> Market Cap: $91.76 billion
Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) is having a rough and choppy 2014 on concerns that aircraft manufacturers may struggle to increase production because of constraints in the supply chain. This is on the heels of Airbus challenging Boeing on its proposals to increase production and that the market may be unable to sustain it. Perhaps the biggest sin may simply be that Boeing’s stock nearly doubled in 2013, potentially making investors look elsewhere. However, as airline fleets continue to age, Boeing is making the move to capitalize on the demand, despite the economic downturn. Boeing recently won another NASA contract for the space taxi, an award of $4.2 billion. Plus it has all of its massive backlog that was added to at the summer air show. Boeing’s forward earnings multiple of about 15 times is also not expensive against the market, and demand for 787 Dreamliners is likely to grow exponentially in the years ahead. A large pullback now leaves an implied 20% upside, without considering the dividend yield.
United Technologies
> Loss in 2014: 5.9%
> Dividend Yield: 2.20%
> Share Price: $105.42
> Mean Price Target: $127.24
> 52-Wk. Range: $102.21 – $120.66
> Market Cap: $96.56 billion
United Technologies Corp. (NYSE: UTX) has taken a breather in 2014 after rising more than 40% in 2013. This may be the notion that the global growth story has gone cold again, and now United Tech has managed to even underperform GE in 2014 after outperforming it in 2013. This conglomerate’s dividend yield of 2.2% is not exactly the highest in the DJIA. The recent $15 pullback in the stock has actually made United Tech look inexpensive at 14 times next year’s expected earnings. The stock currently is only about $3 above its 52-week low, which is far from the norm considering that the Dow was down only about 2% from its all-time highs. One issue that could attract new buyers soon is that the analyst community expects almost 20% upside in the stock, before considering the dividend.
ALSO READ: 6 More Expected DJIA Dividend Hikes Before 2014 Ends
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