Investing

4 Stocks to Buy That Benefit Big From Lower Oil Prices

After over a year of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude priced at more than $100, the recent massive sell-off might be a nail-biter for the energy patch, but for other sectors it is a wonderful early Christmas present.

In a new and very in-depth view of the oil market, and sectors that are benefiting, the analysts at Credit Suisse say that ultimately emerging market demand, combined with volatile conditions in the Middle East and other oil-producing regions stabilizes the price somewhat. They make it clear though that two industries are literally gaining monster revenue ground from the dramatic drop in the price of oil.

While American consumers are realizing a de facto raise in take home pay from the drop in oil, the airline and cruise industry are, and will continue, to see a huge bottom line benefit from the decline. The Credit Suisse team points out that fuel expense accounts for 20% of operating expense for cruise lines and 30% for the airlines. The drop will prove be big for four of the top stocks to buy now. All are rated Outperform.

ALSO READ: 9 High-Yield Dividends for Risk Takers

Airlines

American Airlines Group Inc. (NYSE: AAL) leads off the list and has been absolutely on fire this year, up over 70% despite the recent sell-off and recovery. This is the holding company for American Airlines and US Airways. Together with wholly owned and third-party regional carriers operating as American Eagle and US Airways Express, the airlines operate an average of nearly 6,700 flights per day to 339 destinations in 54 countries. Credit Suisse feels that it has the most aggressive re-fleeting plan among U.S. airlines with almost 500 aircraft on order, and it will take delivery of up to 80 new aircraft per year. Over the next three years this should help lower unit costs and fuel expense.

American Airlines shareholders are paid a 1% dividend. The Credit Suisse target for the stock is $55, and the Thomson/First Call consensus estimate is $52.03. Shares closed trading on Thursday at $40.30.

Delta Air Lines Inc. (NYSE: DAL) was named the 2014 Airline of the Year by Air Transport World magazine and was named to Fortune magazine’s 50 Most Admired Companies, in addition to being named the most admired airline for the third time in four years. The Credit Suisse teams point out that Delta has the most extensive hedging policy among the airlines and owns and operates a refinery in addition to a sizable hedging book. The airline has participated in 80% of the price decline since July and is expected to have $160 million in hedging gains for 2014.

Delta investors are paid a small 0.9% dividend. The Credit Suisse price target is $56, and the consensus target is $51.66. Delta closed trading on Thursday at $39.14.

ALSO READ: The High Cost of Cancelled Airline Flights

Cruise Lines

Carnival Corp. (NYSE: CCL) is the largest cruise company in the world, with a portfolio of cruise brands in North America, Europe, Australia and Asia, comprised of Carnival Cruise Lines, Holland America Line, Princess Cruises, Seabourn, AIDA Cruises, Costa Cruises, Cunard, Ibero Cruises, P&O Cruises (Australia) and P&O Cruises (UK). The Credit Suisse team points out the company uses zero cost collars on Brent crude to hedge oil pricing, and they see Carnival continuing to make big strides in energy consumption reduction. A 10% drop in oil price can equal 26 cents-per-share in earnings.

Carnival shareholders are paid a very solid 2.6% dividend. The Credit Suisse price target is $46, and the consensus is at $44.63. Shares closed Thursday at $40.07.

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: NCLH) reported very solid third-quarter earnings, beating analyst expectations and coming in just slightly lower on revenue. In September, the company announced an agreement to acquire Prestige Cruises, the parent company of Oceania Cruises and Regent Seven Seas Cruises. The combination of brands immediately creates an industry-leading cruise operator with an unmatched growth trajectory and a portfolio of products that span across the key market segments of the cruise industry. Credit Suisse estimates a 10% decline in fuels costs adds seven cents per share in earnings.

The Credit Suisse price target for the stock is $42, and the consensus target is $39.55. The stock closed Thursday at $38.44.

ALSO READ: Top Oil Service Stocks With Huge Upside Despite Oil Meltdown

For years, when oil prices dropped, ticket prices were dropped to customers because the decline in oil prices signaled a bad economy. Now with prices holding firm, it is pretty easy to see that comparable or rising top line sales with lower base costs will drive higher bottom line numbers, and in turn, hopefully higher share prices.

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