The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) is the latest group to warn that the global economy has slowed, probably to a level that risks another worldwide recession. Its assessments should have been expected. Japan’s recovery never existed. Europe’s is barely a quarter old and could return to a period of contraction. China and the U.S. haved carried the world’s GDP growth, but the activity of the largest two nations in the world by GDP has entered a troubled period.

In its Economic Outlook, OECD experts argued:

Modest global economic forecasts, continuing high unemployment, and downshifts in potential output should spur governments with a greater sense of urgency to fully employ monetary, fiscal and structural policy levers to support growth, notably in Europe.

As for expansion:

Global GDP growth is projected to reach a 3.3% rate in 2014 before accelerating to 3.7% in 2015 and 3.9% in 2016, according to the Outlook. This pace is modest compared with the pre-crisis period and somewhat below the long-term average.

As for the U.S. being an economic hero, and Japan a villain:

Among the major advanced economies, activity is gaining strength in the United States, which is projected to grow by 2.2% in 2014 and around 3% in 2015 and 2016. In Japan, growth was impacted by consumption tax hikes in 2014, with expected growth of only 0.4% in 2014, and rises modestly to 0.8% in 2015 and 1% in 2016. 

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China has been the engine of global growth, but that has apparently ended as its central bank drops interest rates, and measures like its PMI falter. The OECD acknowledges this:

Large emerging economies are projected to show diverging performance over the coming years. A slowdown in China, towards more sustainable growth rates will see GDP growth drop from a 7.3% growth rate in 2014 to a 7.1% rate in 2015 and a 6.9% rate in 2016. However, the rapid increase in credit, rising share of non-bank credit, as well as housing market and local government activity are raising concerns about financial stability. A scenario in the Outlook shows that a 2-percentage point decline in the growth of Chinese domestic demand would lower global GDP by 0.3 percent per year.

In summary, the OECD outlook does not contain even one bit of good news.

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