Investing
The Best Stocks of 2014 Part 1: Materials, Consumer, Health, Industrials
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Stocks have enjoyed yet another wonderful year in 2014, and the bull market is now more than five and a half years old. With the S&P 500 index up almost 14% year-to-date ahead of Thanksgiving, 24/7 Wall St. wanted to review the best-performing sector leaders of the S&P 500 Index.
This report has been broken out into two parts. This first part covers basic materials, consumer goods, retail, healthcare via biotechs and drugs, healthcare devices, non-defense industrials, and defense & aerospace under industrials.
With the S&P 500 so strong in 2014, the moves of the leaders may seem extreme. Just keep in mind that many laggards are also present in each sector. 24/7 Wall St. has been quick to point these out, as well. In fact, we recently showed ten companies that would not be saved by the bull market alone — they are going to have to make serious changes, regardless of the stock market direction.
In our review of the major sector winners, we included some basic data about what has made each stock the top performer — but we screened out the companies that are being acquired to keep this relevant for the future. We also provided an analyst’s outlook and added some insight about what to expect ahead of 2015.
Alcoa
Basic Materials
2014 YTD: +65%
Stock Price: $17.22
Market Cap: $20 Billion
Alcoa (NYSE: AA) was booted out of the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 2013, almost at the exact wrong time. While it is up 65% or so in 2014, it is up over 90% over the last 12-months. Still, most of the gains were earlier in 2014. Alcoa has migrated away from being so dependent on the aluminum market and has gone after high-performance parts for cars and planes. The company’s turnaround has been monumental, and some analysts think the stock now has a lot more room to go — perhaps into the mid-$20s. Does it matter that this was a $30 and $40 stock before the recession? It will to some if the stock continues its performance into 2015, with a valuation of under 17-times 2015 expected earnings. Alcoa has a 52-week trading range of $9.29 to $17.75 and a consensus analyst price target of $18.45.
Keurig Green Mountain & Monster Beverage
Consumer Goods – Food & Beverage
Keurig Green Mountain, Inc. (NASDAQ: GMCR) and Monster Beverage (NASDAQ: MNST) are dual leaders in the broad consumer goods sector of the S&P 500. These are not technically merger stocks, but the critical ingredient here (besides water in the drinks) is big investments from The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO). Keurig’s performance year to date was +87% and Monster’s performance year to date was +61%.
Keurig closed Monday down 1.4% at $138.39 and has a 52-week trading range of $63.50 to $158.87 and a consensus analyst price target of $143.90. Monster closed down 0.6% at $108.79, and it has a 52-week trading range of $57.07 to $111.51 and a consensus analyst price target of $111.13. Now that the Coca-Cola investment events have taken place, can the performance even come close to a repeat in 2015?
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Under Armour
Consumer Goods – Apparel
2014 YTD: +58%
Stock Price: $70.00
Market Cap: $15 Billion
Under Armour, Inc. (NYSE: UA) has been the consumer goods leader in apparel with a 58% gain so far in 2014. More importantly, Under Armour is the new kid on the block that took the athletic apparel market by storm over the last decade. It has said, “Hello, Nike and Adidas!” for longer than either company likely wishes. Under Armour is expensive at over 50-times 2015 earnings estimates, but earnings growth is about 26% for 2014 on about 30% sales growth. With a value of $15 billion, it may now be in the category of too large to acquire. The one that got away… Under Armour has a 52-week trading range of $39.76 to $73.42 and a consensus analyst price target of $71.54.
Kroger
Retail – Food
2014 YTD: +49%
Stock Price: $58.51
Market Cap: $28 Billion
The Kroger Co. (NYSE: KR) might seem like an unlikely food retailer in the consumer and retail segment to be the number one performer, but its stock is up almost 50% so far in 2014. Kroger offers many of the same goods as Whole Foods at lower prices and it is a key defensive stock. Its valuation was super low at the start of the year, but now it is close to the market at 16-times next year earnings. This valuation feels like it is getting expensive for what used to trade at about 10-times earnings. Kroger’s dividend yield is also only 1.3%.
Edwards Lifesciences
Healthcare – Devices
2014 YTD: +87%
Stock Price: $127.52
Market Cap: $13 Billion
Edwards Lifesciences Corp. (NYSE: EW) is the 2014 leader in healthcare under devices and instruments in the S&P 500. Edwards is constantly listed as one of the companies that could win from the repeal of the medical device tax that was included in Obamacare. The company is still growing, with expected sales growth of 14% in 2014 and 7% in 2015 — and that is after a history of earnings upside surprises with its quarterly reports. Edwards has a 52-week trading range of $60.62 to $127.97 and a consensus analyst price target of $119.39.
ALSO READ: 4 Analyst Biotech Stock Picks With Up To 200% Upside
Vertex Pharmaceuticals & Eli Lilly
Healthcare – Biotech and Pharma
The S&P 500 leaders in healthcare are Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: VRTX) in the biotech sub-sector with almost a 50% gain so far in 2014 and Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE: LLY) in Pharma with close to a 36% climb year to date. These top performers are, of course, excluding the Allergan-Actavis merger and the like.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: VRTX) seems to keep winning from positive drug opinions and trial data, and its Kalydeco is said to cost over $300,000 a year to help treat cystic fibrosis. If one analyst is correct with a $175 price target, Vertex could have much more room to run. This was an under-$50 stock at the start of 2013. Vertex closed Monday up 2% at $113.80 and Eli Lilly closed down 0.6% at $66.93. Vertex stock has a 52-week trading range of $59.79 to $118.17 and a consensus analyst price target of $122.05. Vertex was just named a top pick for 2015 by RBC Capital Markets as well.
Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE: LLY) has crept higher and higher throughout 2014. Some analysts even see the stock rising well into the $70s and one analyst sees Eli Lilly shares rising to $80. Lilly shares were pounded going into the recession, and it was not until the start of 2012, around $40, before the gains started coming on strong. Lilly stock has a 52-week trading range of $48.88 to $68.67 and a consensus analyst price target of $67.47.
Martin Marietta Materials
Industrials – Non-Defense
2014 YTD: +31%
Stock Price: $130.27
Market Cap: $8 Billion
Martin Marietta Materials Inc. (NYSE: MLM) is the leader so far in 2014 in non-aerospace and defense industrials with a gain of 31% year-to-date. The company serves all aspects with input and aggregates for the construction industry, residential and non-residential alike. The company is now worth almost $9 billion. It sounds like a high-earnings multiple of almost 25-times expected 2015 earnings, but earnings growth is strong and sales growth is expected to be about 27% this year and 31% next year. The company has a 52-week trading range of $94.69 to $136.36 and a consensus analyst price target of $138.91.
General Dynamics
Industrials – Defense
2014 YTD: +54%
Stock Price: $144.88
Market Cap: $48 Billion
General Dynamics Corporation (NYSE: GD) has been the industrial leader in 2014, if you include aerospace and defense. At almost 18 times expected 2015 earnings, it is odd on the surface that it would hold the pole position considering there is not any expected net growth from 2013 to 2015 — making for a dead five-years. It also only has a 1.7% dividend yield. Some might ask “what’s to love?” here, but so far the bulls who bought in 2013 were the ones who were right. Analysts as a whole have a price target that implies a full valuation is in place, but one analyst sees it going to $164. General Dynamics has a 52-week trading range of $88.85 to $145.92 and a consensus analyst price target of $146.50.
ALSO READ: Why Everyone Loves Intel Again, Or Will In 2015
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