The bull market is nearing its sixth year, and companies have increased their dividends and stock buybacks as the market keeps hitting new highs. Several Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) components have recently raised their dividends, and 24/7 Wall St. has projected five more Dow stocks that should have dividend hike announcements before the Christmas break and before 2014 comes to an end.
Please note: This story has been updated to address each dividend hike announced.
We have analyzed and predicted many dividend hikes for years now, and these five dividend hikes should be imminent. Any lack of a hike, or a rate less than our expectations, likely would not be viewed positively by investors. One caveat to consider on these expected dividend hike announcements is that not all of them will be paid out in this calendar year. Still, we have predicted by how much each dividend should be expected to be raised.
Also included in this analysis are projected earnings per share for 2014 and 2015. These will allow investors to see how the new projected payout compares with the underlying earnings expectations. Unfortunately, that earnings breakdown does not include nor does it consider earnings that are generated overseas, so it also does not include a domestic cash analysis versus cash that is kept overseas that could support a dividend on top of earnings.
We are optimistic for these dividend hikes, but readers might want to have more realistic expectations this year than for a few of the massive dividend hikes seen at the end of 2013. While investors also love stock buybacks, the best news about dividend hikes measuring corporate performance and corporate governance is that a higher dividend generally implies that management sees core earnings strength enduring for years ahead.
GE
It will be more than interesting how General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) handles an expected dividend hike when you consider that the GE of 2015 and beyond looks much different than GE has in two decades. What acts as a wild card is Synchrony Financial (NYSE: SYF), because the spin-off is expected to be completed in 2015. That could mean that GE could keep its dividend the same and still be able to claim that it increased the payout when you consider the Synchrony shares and potential dividend there. General Electric is also the top yielder among DJIA conglomerates at about 3.3%, so there just is not much pressure on Jeff Immelt and his team to push that much more cash out the door to shareholders. Our guess is that the $0.22 per quarter common stock dividend will be raised to $0.23 per quarter — or $0.92 annualized per share.
UPDATE: The boost to GE’s dividend was right in line with our expectations.
General Electric shares are back under $26 again on lower energy prices, and its stock has a consensus analyst price target of $29.08 and a 52-week trading range of $23.69 to $28.09. The conglomerate currently has a dividend yield rate of 3.3%. GE expects earnings per share of $1.67 in the 2014 full year and $1.80 in the 2015 full year.
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AT&T
AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) finds itself caught between a rock and a hard place due to several issues. It has raised its annualized dividend for 30 consecutive years and is one of the dividend aristocrats, yet AT&T is in the midst of a price war, it is making the acquisition of DIRECTV (NASDAQ: DTV), it is making changes to its portfolio and the hope is that its capital spending will be lower in 2015 despite expected spectrum bidding. The last dividend hike was barely 2% (to $0.46 from $0.45 per quarter). All that 24/7 Wall St. is expecting is another one-cent hike to an annualized rate of $1.88, which is somewhat supported by a positive analyst view from Credit Suisse.
The $35.25 share price for AT&T generates a yield today of 5.2%, by far the highest yield of the DJIA components. How high can AT&T be expected to raise the payout on such small earnings per share growth? After all, S&P recently revised its outlook to negative from stable after AT&T’s fresh revenue growth warning. AT&T’s stock has a consensus analyst price target of $35.67 and a 52-week trading range of $31.74 to $37.48. Analysts expect AT&T to have $2.57 in earnings per share for the 2014 full year and $2.60 in earnings per share for the 2015 full year.
Disney
Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS) is largely expected to continue its dividend hike cycle. The dividend hike announcement for 2013 came on December 4 and was up 15% to $0.86 per share for its annual dividend payout. Disney remains the only DJIA component that makes only one dividend payment per year. The year-ago dividend was payable on January 16, 2014, to holders of record at the close of business on December 16, 2013. Our view is that Disney’s low 0.93% or so yield will be raised to at least a 1% yield again — perhaps being as much as to $1.00 per share, but most likely to $0.95 per share.
UPDATE: Disney delivered a much higher dividend hike than we expected!
Disney’s stock has a consensus analyst price target of $95.44 and a 52-week trading range of $68.80 to $92.96. The Mouse House expects earnings per share of $4.67 in the 2015 fiscal year and $5.41 in the 2016 fiscal year. The latest buzz on Star Wars demand should show just how much Disney can keep expanding.
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3M
3M Co. (NYSE: MMM) is set to have its 2015 annual outlook meeting on December 16, 2014. This was the platform for its dividend payout hike announcement last year, but it may seem like a dividend hike that is very rapid, considering that 3M’s last quarterly dividend of $0.855 per share was just announced on November 11. The big deal in 2013 is that 3M’s dividend announcement was a 35% hike. We simply do not expect a repeat of the same for this next year — particularly as 3M announced a $12 billion stock buyback program just this last February. Our outlook is for 3M’s dividend hike to move up to $0.90 to $0.95 from $0.855 per share now.
UPDATE: 3M also delivered a much higher dividend hike than we expected!
3M’s current share price of $158 or so compares to a consensus analyst price target of $155.29 and a 52-week trading range of $123.61 to $160.86. The highest analyst price target for 3M is up at $167. The company has a dividend yield rate of 2.1%. 3M expects earnings per share of $7.48 in the 2014 full year and $8.20 in the 2015 full year. 3M was recently viewed as having the best of the conglomerate earnings stories this earnings season.
Boeing
December has been when Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) hiked its dividend for the past three years. It has a December 3 presentation at a Credit Suisse conference. While we do not have any formal dates for this, Wells Fargo suggested that the dividend hike announcement should come after the close on December 15. Boeing’s dividend hike was a massive 50% a year ago, and we have close to zero expectations of a similar hike this year. The current payout of $0.73 per quarter likely will be bumped to $0.80 per share, or perhaps as much as $0.85 per share. That would take a nearly 2.2% yield up to around 2.4% to 2.55%, based on a $133 share price.
UPDATE: And Boeing offered a much higher dividend hike than we were looking for as well!
Boeing’s consensus analyst price target is $150.00, and the 52-week trading range is $116.32 to $144.57. The highest analyst price target is all the way up at $175. Analysts expect Boeing earnings per share of $8.36 in the 2014 full year and $8.61 in the 2015 full year. Also, keep in mind that Boeing’s earnings views for the years ahead are supported by almost $500 billion in backlog now.
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