10 Reasons Bullish Market Strategist Sees S&P 500 at 2,350 This Year

One thing is for sure, you have to admire a bullish equity strategist when the market is within striking distance of all-time highs. Barry Bannister, Stifel’s Chief Equity Strategist, is one of Wall Street’s really smart guys, and he has kept a bullish bias for some time. While he is the first to admit this is an aging bull market, Bannister also cites a plethora of reasons while the market can push higher.

In a new research report, which is also a very comprehensive view of the macro scenario for the second quarter, Bannister cites many reasons that back up not only his target price, but the overall state of the market today.

While many on Wall Street tout the current bull market as six years old, many others believe the rally off the bottom turned into a secular bull market about this time two years ago, when the S&P 500 broke above the old 2000 and 2007 prints in the 1,550 range. From 2009 until 2013, we essentially filled in the huge hole panicked investors had dug from 2007 to 2009.

Just for the record, an S&P call for 2,350 is much higher than the consensus targets we saw issued at the end of 2014 and start of 2015 from most other Wall Street Strategists. Here are 10 reasons that help to support the Stifel call for 2,350 this year on the S&P 500.

ALSO READ: Why Deutsche Bank Says to Buy Gilead and Vertex Pullbacks

1) The Stifel team, and others on Wall Street, do not see the complacency or euphoria usually associated with a market top. Bullish sentiment is currently extremely low.

2) After years, the “deflation versus reflation” scenario may be waning. Stifel feels that the deflation risk to earnings is slowing as the dollar appears to be close to a top.

3) Reflation, without damaging inflation, can push a late bull market price to earnings and help to jump to the Stifel 2,350 target. This is an astute point, especially with billions still residing in bonds and bond funds, and there should be a gusher of late money to the equity party. That is a sure sign of a top.

4) Labor costs, interest rates and yield curve conditions that often can point to a domestic business top within two years are not present at this time. The Stifel team points out that the S&P does not peak until four months before the U.S. economy. That leaves room to move higher.

5) With dollar strength still hampering industrials, material and energy, the sector leaders like technology and health care can continue to push higher. A weakening dollar could bring the other sectors back in the mix, to create overall market strength.

6) Utilities and real estate investment trusts (REITS), which were market leaders in a generationally low interest rate environment, will lose support as the 10-year yield eventually increases.

ALSO READ: Merrill Lynch Says Buy These 3 Top Radio Frequency Chip Stocks

7) Now that foreign quantitative easing has joined the party, albeit late, while usually discounted in advance, strengthening foreign economies could add to overall global growth.

8) The Stifel belief, which is spot-on, is that low rates ultimately buy time but do not create value. Many believe that the Federal Reserve will cap the interest rate rise at the 2% level to see how the markets react. Coming from essentially zero, that would still be a big move. That said, markets in the past have not acted horribly during periods of increases, if they weren’t draconian.

9) With heavy imbalances still in the market after the Great Recession almost caused a cataclysmic collapse, and after years of huge double-digit gains, the Stifel team is probably right on the mark when suggesting that S&P total return could move back to single digits after this year.

10) Last, but not least, the Stifel opinion is that it is too early to call a market top. With so many pundits talking tech and biotech bubble in financial forums, this is almost a contrarian call.

One thing is for sure, Bannister is an equity strategist investors should listen to. Many times, Wall Street firms have been known to shift opinion when a short-term issue, be it headline or economic, throws the market a curve ball. Then they quickly switch back when the coast is clear. That is not the way to run money or give advice.

ALSO READ: 4 Attractive Dividend Stocks for a Low Interest Rate World