The bull market may have taken a pause in the first quarter of 2015, but the reality is that this rally is now more than six years old. If there is one thing that investors have loved during the period of low interest rates, it is high dividends — and rising dividends. Unfortunately, some companies may have gotten ahead of themselves on dividend hikes or their recent industry metrics may have changed sharply against them.

24/7 Wall St. has identified four companies that actually may have to cut their dividends. Two of these decisions may need to be made very soon, but two others may be pushed out as the companies hope and wait for metrics to change.

Obviously the oil patch would seem to have the greatest dividend risk. Two of these at-risk dividends are in the oil patch, and there are literally dozens of others in oil and gas that could be at risk as well. One at-risk dividend featured here is in toys and one is in casinos.

While companies do not like to cut their dividends, we recently featured 13 companies cutting their dividends, and more cuts have since been announced. We also have featured companies that have so far refused to pay dividends even though they are capable of doing so.

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Another consideration in this effort, on top of earnings per share versus payouts, is the credit metrics of higher dividends. Dividends and buybacks hit an all-time high in 2014, and the trend is expected to continue in 2015. We recently featured a report showing that dividend hikes are close to triggering corporate credit downgrades based upon stretched finances.

Mattel

Mattel Inc. (NASDAQ: MAT) was just featured as one of the worst performing S&P 500 stocks so far in 2015. The toy-making giant has suffered as Barbie has lost serious ground in the brand dominance, with the film “Frozen” having taken much of that interest away. Now a “Frozen” sequel may only keep that pressure on Barbie. The question to ask here is if that 6.7% dividend yield is sustainable.

Mattel shares were up on Monday at $22.75 with the broad stock market gains, but it is also just above a 52-week low, as the range of the past year is $22.44 to $40.79. So, is a $1.52 sustainable? Thomson Reuters has the consensus earnings per share (EPS) estimates at $1.55 in 2015 and $1.60 in 2016. That means that Mattel would have to send out literally almost 100% of its earnings from operations as a dividend.

Mattel ended 2104 with a cash cushion of $971 million, but that was lower than $1.04 billion in 2013 and the $1.335 billion of 2012. Also, its long-term debt rose to $2.1 billion in 2014 from $1.6 billion in 2013 and $1.1 billion in 2012. Mattel’s 2014 sales of $6.02 billion were down from the $6.48 billion of 2013 and $6.42 billion in 2012, and Thomson Reuters is calling for 2015 revenues of $5.96 billion and 2016 revenues of $5.83 billion.

So, is Mattel a safe dividend? Its $0.38 per share has been paid for five quarters in a row.

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Noble

Noble Corporation PLC (NYSE: NE) looks like it could easily join the wave of lower dividends in the oil and gas sector. The offshore drilling contractor almost certainly has had to rework its operating model around the lower and lower rig counts of late. The latest dividend of $0.375 per share per quarter, the third such payment in a row, was back in February.

Two issues are of concern here. The first is that this $1.50 annualized payout generates a yield of 10.4%. Some of that yield may be an accident, considering that the $14.45 share price is against a 52-week range of $13.15 to $30.29. This was a $35 stock for part of 2013. Losing over half of your share value doubles your yield.

The second concern is the real meat of the matter. After EPS of $3.01 in 2014, Noble’s consensus earnings estimates are $2.13 per share for 2015 and $1.24 per share in 2016. That implies contracting earnings, while revenues are expected to contract as well. If a company has declining earnings and declining sales, it might be able to pay out 75% of operating earnings in one year — but then to follow up by paying out 20% higher in dividends than it generates from operating earnings is not desirable.

Noble also runs cash light and has over $4.8 billion in long-term debt. Maybe this is an accidentally high dividend, but it may also have to come down, and not by accident.

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Petrobras

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. (NYSE: PBR) remains an oil giant that is in trouble. Any analysts or investors who stuck their necks out trying to defend this Brazilian state-run oil giant on the way down have ended up feeling like the turkeys that do not get pardoned by the president ahead of Thanksgiving. Its operating structure is bad enough, but the scandal and the long delays in filings have the company backed up. We should have already known about the dividend, but this is not a normal year at Petrobras.

What investors need to know here is that Petrobras already warned that a dividend might be delayed as it deals with its finances and a credit crunch. If the company’s warnings are not enough, at least from the prior management, then what about credit ratings agencies? S&P warned about dividend prospects, and Fitch warned that asset write-downs could result in dividend delays. Another dividend delay warning came from J.P. Morgan.

What investors need to know about Petrobras is that company’s woes are far from over. The company gets its operating prices realized effectively dictated to it by the Brazilian government. There are some who think its reviews of financial problems could last through the end of 2016.

Will cooperation with the China Development Bank help? That appears to be an added $3.5 billion coming down the road. Also, asset sales in Argentina may be a help as well. Petrobras has its Ordinary and Extraordinary General Meetings currently set for April 29, 2015, and if a delay is coming it may be known then.

Make no mistake here, a dividend delay, at least from an outsider’s view, probably would mean skipping a dividend. It seems unlikely that the company would keep the dividends accruing in arrears and then give a magic catch-up payout. Anything is possible, and the company may say its “dividend policy” would make this fear mute. Again, this is far from a normal time inside Petrobras.

The only good news here is that Petrobras shares have rallied 30% off their recent bottom. The bad news on top of that good news is that bottom was under $5.00 for its American depositary shares (ADSs) in New York trading, and Petrobras used to trade exponentially higher, as its 52-week high is over $20 in New York trading.

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Wynn Resorts

Wynn Resorts Ltd. (NASDAQ: WYNN) is a great casino and a great destination hotel. Its dividend looks to be at-risk, but the good news is that it is not yet set in stone and with luck the problem may be avoided. The trouble is that expectations remain in decline in Macau, and the company is in a proxy fight with Elaine Wynn. It may also turn out to be that Wynn raised its dividend too much before things did not turn around.

Before investors panic: the share performance sure indicates that a lot of bad news is already priced into the stock. Also, a dividend cut might not even hurt the stock at this point. Still, Barron’s said that Macau short sellers are betting that casinos will cut their dividends. Again, this does not assure that the U.S. casino owners who own in Macau are doomed to cut payouts.

Wynn showed lower net revenues at the corporate level in 2014 at $5.433 billion, versus the $5.62 billion in 2013. Macau gambling revenue has been pressured for months now. Is it possible that Wynn simply did not know how strong those headwinds would get? Probably.

The casino and hotel operator has a dividend payout of $6.00 on an annualized basis. The problem is not the $7.58 in EPS in 2014, but rather the $6.06 per share expected in 2015. It sounds good that the consensus earnings estimates are $7.50 per share in 2016, but that is assuming the trend of the 7.8% revenue drop expected in 2015 is followed with 24% expected revenue gains in 2016.

What really drives the at-risk dividend alarm here is that earnings estimates have cratered lately. Just within the past 90 days, Wynn was expected to earn over $8 per share in 2015 and almost $11 per share in 2016. So what happens if there are any more hiccups along the way?

The good news here, again, is that Wynn may be able to skate past any dividend cuts if it wants to. Wynn has lots of cash to buffer earnings pressure versus payouts. Wynn ended 2014 with $2.18 billion in cash, but that is a tad lower than the $2.43 billion at the end of 2013. Wynn’s long-term debt rose to $7.34 billion in 2014 from $6.58 billion in 2013.

More good news is that if a dividend cut comes, it is unlikely to occur immediately. Companies hate to cut dividends, and this decision will be put off as long as the company can put it off. With shares at $125.50, the 52-week trading range is $121.53 to $230.43. Even if the consensus analyst price target is up at almost $163, and even if the highest price target is still $195, this feels like it is at risk.

ALSO READ: The Worst Performing S&P 500 Stocks So Far in 2015

As a final note, companies hate to cut their dividends and investors hate to hear that their dividends have been cut. The flip side is that sometimes companies simply have to cut their dividends to keep operations normal and to keep their corporate credit or balance sheets healthy. It happens, and ironically, sometimes a dividend cut is not such a bad thing.

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