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5 Merrill Lynch Stock Picks That Have Been Hurt by Strong Dollar

With the U.S. dollar the strongest in years, some top stocks have taken it on the chin in 2015 as a result. The dollar is up 8% this year and a whopping 20% since the end of last June. A new report from Merrill Lynch shows that there is a trove of quality multinational large caps that have been hit hard due to perceived dollar exposure that should be bought.

Merrill Lynch top-notch strategist Savita Subramanian and her team think there is opportunity in buying high-quality multinationals. They point out that with European growth gaining momentum, multinationals should fare better. The analysts screened the top stocks that have underperformed in 2015, each are high quality companies with low correlations to the dollar.

24/7 Wall St. picked the five stocks on the Merrill Lynch screen with the largest year-to-date underperformance. They are Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ), Kansas City Southern (NYSE: KSU), Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC), F5 Networks Inc. (NASDAQ: FFIV) and Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSE: PG).

Hewlett-Packard

HP is down a whopping 22% year to date and trades at a very low 8.6 times 2015 estimated earnings. Some Wall Street analysts feel that weak personal computer (PC) demand could continue to negatively affect revenue and free-cash-flow at the company. The recent decline in the stock may represent investors already discounting a weak first quarter from the Silicon Valley icon. HP does a large 65% of sales to foreign accounts.

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The server business is where many top analysts on Wall Street are bullish, and by adding in the firm’s very solid printer business, investors may be well-advised to look at this stock’s at current lower trading levels.

HP investors are paid a 2.05% dividend. Merrill Lynch has a very solid $42 price target for the stock. The Thomson/First Call consensus price target is $40.40. Shares closed Wednesday at $31.52.

Kansas City Southern

This top transport stock is down a big 15.6% so far this year, and it does a surprising 46% of sales to foreign customers. The company has railroad investments in the United States, Mexico and Panama. Its primary U.S. holding is the Kansas City Southern Railway Company, serving the central and south central United States. Its international holdings include Kansas City Southern de Mexico, serving northeastern and central Mexico and the port cities of Lázaro Cárdenas, Tampico and Veracruz, as well as a 50% interest in Panama Canal Railway Company, providing ocean-to-ocean freight and passenger service along the Panama Canal.

Kansas City Southern’s North American rail holdings and strategic alliances are primary components of a NAFTA Railway system, linking the commercial and industrial centers of the United States, Mexico and Canada.

Kansas City Southern investors are paid a 1.3% dividend. Merrill Lynch has a $118 price objective, and the consensus target is $117.33. Shares closed trading on Wednesday at $104.95.

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Intel

Intel jumps onto the list and is down 15.1% in 2015. The chip giant does a whopping 83% of sales to foreign customers. Like many firms, Merrill Lynch analysts are seeing value in the stock after a pretty hard share pricing beat-down. They also see the other areas starting to contribute a meaningful impact to revenues and helping to move the legendary Silicon Valley chip giant away from massive PC dependence. Some Wall Street analysts believe the company could earn up to $4 per share.

While trying to lessen dependence on the PC business, Intel is focused on chip designs for other applications. The company’s latest Atom chips are not just for phones and tablets. They will be showing up in many of the other devices consumers own before long. The chip maker has unveiled a new version of its Atom x3 (aka SoFIA) that is designed to run Internet of Things devices, such as smart appliances and outdoor sensors.

Intel investors are paid an outstanding 3.05% dividend. Merrill Lynch has the price target set at $38. The consensus target is lower at $34.61. Shares closed trading on Wednesday at $31.31.

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F5 Networks

The company does 47% of sales to foreign accounts. With shares down over 12% this year and 17% from the highs printed last December, the stock was absolutely eviscerated after it actually beat earnings estimates but missed on revenues and gave dreadful forward guidance. Lower-than-expected revenue and earnings forecasts for the second quarter dampened investors’ enthusiasm for the stock in a big way.

Many top firms on Wall Street are sticking with the stock and have noted that the potential for fundamental upside to consensus low double-digit revenue growth, and they feel that the fourth-quarter miss was in part due to a very aggressive sales forecast. They cited continuing strength in F5’s Next-Generation Security and Service Provider Layer 4/7 business. Cloud Services are also a very positive new revenue stream.

The Merrill Lynch price target is $126, and the consensus target is higher at $128.71. The stock closed most recently at $113.43 a share.

Procter & Gamble

This stock is down almost 10% this year, and the company has a very large 65% of sales directed to foreign customers. P&G is a solid consumer staples stock, especially for conservative investors to consider. It sells lots of run-of-the-mill household products that are essential for everyday life, and it is not content to stand pat on its laurels.

P&G actually is innovative in its product development process and uses that to help ensure future growth and cash flow. This should provide investors years of steady growth and dividends. While currency headwinds have weighed on recent earnings and projections, the dollar may be topping out this summer or fall, and that would bode well for the future.

Shareholders are paid a 3.11% dividend. Merrill Lynch has a $95 price target, and the consensus is a touch lower at $91.84. P&G closed Wednesday at $82.77.

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All these are top-quality stocks that have underperformed this year. Most of that bad performance is due to dollar strength. While the dollar surely does not drop back to last year’s levels, it should start to taper off. Any signs that the surge in the greenback is slowing, and investors may jump back to these companies.

 

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