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Merrill Lynch Has 4 Stocks To Buy With Consistent and Predictable Earnings

Almost any way you look at it, the long stock market run looks like it is starting to hit a wall. The commodity market from oil to gold has been hammered, the dollar has strengthened substantially, China’s stock market has imploded, and the S&P 500 may be on track to post the first negative earnings-per-share growth since 2009.

In a new report from Merrill Lynch’s top notch equity strategist Savita Subramanian, she and her team look for stocks to buy now that are consistent and predictable when it comes to earnings and more.

Subramanian points out that with all the macro and economic turmoil, clients are more and more asking for stock recommendations for companies that deliver on a consistent and predictable basis.

Within that very stringent set of qualifications the Merrill Lynch team came up with 16 stocks that met the criteria. We then screened them for the stocks that are ranked highest and are rated Buy at Merrill Lynch.

Nike

This stock has had an outstanding summer so far up a sizzling 6.6%. Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE) is a world wide athletic giant makes the list as top consumer discretionary name, and posted very strong fiscal fourth quarter earnings when they reported in June.

The company also has outstanding potential upside from a turnaround in its China business, improvements in gross margins and continued innovation-driven market share gains in both basketball and running footwear. With one of the most recognizable brands in the world, long-term investors may do very well adding shares here despite the big move up in the stock this year.

Nike is benefitting from consumer preferences for “athleisure”. With the company’s extensive product line and recognizable worldwide branding, the stock continues to roll year-after-year. Nike Investors are paid a 1% dividend from the sporting apparel giant.

The Merrill Lynch price target for the stock is $120, and the consensus price target is posted at $117.30. Nike closed at $113.47 yesterday.

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UnitedHealth Group, Incorporated

This is a top stock to buy in the rapidly consolidating managed health sector. UnitedHealth Group, Incorporated (NYSE: UNH) offers the full spectrum of health benefit programs for individuals, employers and Medicare and Medicaid beneficiaries, and contracts directly with more than 800,000 physicians and care professionals, and 6,000 hospitals and other care facilities.

The company offers a broad spectrum of products and services through two distinct platforms: UnitedHealthcare, which provides health care coverage and benefits services; and Optum, which provides information and technology-enabled health services.

UnitedHealth has posted outstanding earnings over the last year, and is one of the companies that limited exposure to the public exchanges. UnitedHealth investors are paid a 1.65% dividend.

The Merrill Lynch price target for the stock is $150 and the consensus is at $146.68. The shares closed Wednesday at $121.52.

Walt Disney

This company is a top consumer media company with multiple streams of income to push revenue, and is also on the Merrill Lynch US1 list. The Walt Disney Company (NYSE: DIS) stock continues outperforming on a near and long-term basis. With the movie studio business poised to improve, as with accelerating theme park business, the network programming continues to drive viewerships with extensive sports programming. Combining that revenue growth with the company’s solid media networks and interactive presence, and 2015 revenue estimates could be conservative.

The Disney Media Networks segment operates broadcast and cable television networks, domestic television stations, and radio networks and stations; and is involved in the television production and television distribution operations. Its cable networks include ESPN, Disney Channels, and ABC Family, as well as UTV/Bindass and Hungama. This segment also owns eight domestic television stations. Disney is also one of 24/7 Wall St. top ten stocks to own for the next decade.

Disney shareholders are paid a 1.11% dividend. The Merrill Lynch price target is set at $130, and the Thomson/First Call consensus is at $122.56. Shares closed yesterday at $118.46.

PepsiCo

This is a top consumer staples stock that fits the bill. PepsiCo, Inc. (NYSE: PEP) is a global snack and beverage company, manufactures and markets salty and convenient snacks, carbonated and non-carbonated beverages and foods. Divisions were restated in 2008 to include Pepsi Americas Foods (including Frito-Lay), Pepsi Americas Beverages and Pepsi Int’l. Key foreign sales exposures include UK, Mexico, India and China. Brands include Pepsi Cola, Mountain Dew, Gatorade, Tropicana, Frito-Lay, Quaker, SoBe and Aquafina.

The company recently announced a partnership agreement with Starbucks to market, sell and distribute ready-to-drink (RTD) Starbucks coffee and energy beverages in Latin America, starting in 2016. PepsiCo will use its expansive distribution network and local expertise in the region to sell and distribute Starbucks RTD beverages. These beverages will be available in 2016, across the Caribbean, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Mexico, Panama, Peru, Puerto Rico and Uruguay.

PepsiCo investors are paid a very solid 2.91% dividend. The Merrill Lynch price target is set at $107, with the consensus posted at $105.67. The stock closed Wednesday at $96.48.

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These stock picks seem to make a ton of sense for investors wanting to stay long the equity markets, but worried about the current market status. Rotating from higher beta and volatility momentum companies to these is a good move, and really makes for easier sleeping at night. In order to make this screen, Merrill Lynch screened S&P 500 companies looking for the following qualities:

1) S&P Quality Rating of B+ or higher

2) Earnings-per-share estimate dispersion of less than 3%

3) 2-year standard deviation of quarterly year-over-year earnings growth

4) 200-day daily underperformance versus the S&P 500

5) Net debt to EBITDA less than 4 times, and haven’t missed quarterly EPS estimates in the last 2 years.

 

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