Investing

4 Analyst Stock Picks With 50% to 100% Upside Potential

As we head into a huge stretch of earnings, many investors are wondering if a fourth-quarter rally is really in the cards, or whether we will start hitting lower higher highs and lower lows. History remains on the bulls’ side, especially after the big sell-off of late August and September. Aggressive traders looking for solid ideas with big upside from all over Wall Street will like a new research note from Stifel, which features four stocks to buy with massive potential.

All four stocks are rated Buy and all have huge upside targets. While they are more suited for aggressive accounts with a higher risk tolerance, they vary in actual risk profile.

Pandora Media

This company is facing more and more competition, but it continues to hold its own. Pandora Media Inc. (NYSE: P) is clearly not the only company with a big desire to be in the music streaming business, but it is the current leader in installation and use in the automotive world, with a penetration rate right at 70%, and hopes to stay that way.

Stifel points out that the webcasting royalty hearings at the Copyright Royalty Board are not complete, and final initial determination of rates are expected in December. Shares of the stock have jumped more than 40% over the past three months, as investors appear to be more confident that ongoing concerns related to royalties rates and obligations aren’t as negative as initially thought. Plus the company is very close to settling a pre-1972 royalties claim for much less than expected.

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Pandora is about to report earnings , and Stifel is anxious to hear the details of Pandora’s acquisition of Ticketfly. The firm is curious how Pandora calculates the target addressable market opportunity for this business, and what type of impact Pandora thinks it can make by integrating ticket sales into its Artist Marketing Platform.

The Stifel price target for the stock is $30, and the Thomson/First Call consensus price target is $21.86. The shares closed on Tuesday at $19.33.

Vale

This is a total contrarian play, but savvy investors could make big money here. Vale S.A. (NYSE: VALE) engages in the research, production and sale of iron ore and pellets, nickel, fertilizer, copper, coal, manganese, ferroalloys, cobalt, platinum group metals and precious metals in Brazil and internationally.

Vale’s Bulk Material segment produces and extracts iron ore and pellets, while its Base Metals segment produces and extracts non-ferrous minerals, including nickel and copper. The Fertilizers segment provides a group of nutrients, such as potash, phosphates and nitrogen. The company also invests in energy generation through operating hydroelectric plants and centers, as well as produces steel.

While all the commodities have been stuck in bear markets, and the Stifel team actually lowers estimates for the quarter, they see this being somewhat offset by lower production costs due to operational efficiencies and currency tailwinds. The bottom line: the entire segment has been a nightmare, and this may very well be the proverbial winner at an ugly dog show contest.

The Stifel target price drops to $10 from $13, while the consensus target is $5.48. Shares closed Tuesday at $4.46.

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Valeant Pharmaceuticals

This company took a headline beating for raising prices way too much. It is also a gigantic holding in Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square hedge fund. Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. (NYSE: VRX) develops, manufactures and markets pharmaceuticals, over-the-counter products and medical devices worldwide. Its extensive list of products treat everything from severe acne to Wellbutrin XL for major depressive disorder in adults; Jublia for onychomycosis of the toenails; Xenazine for chorea; Targretin for cutaneous T-cell lymphoma; Arestin, a subgingival sustained-release antibiotic; and Provenge for the treatment of prostate cancer.

Valeant shares are down a huge 37% in the past two months. The downtrend was particularly dramatic in September after a comment from presidential candidate Hillary Clinton on the rising prices of specialty drugs led to a massive sell-off in biotechs. The company responded this week by reporting solid third-quarter results, with revenues up a stunning 44% and earnings per share 36%.

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Ackman recently revealed Pershing Square’s big position in Valeant and said “If I had to pick one stock in our portfolio that is the most undervalued, it is Valeant.” While there always has been an eye raised at the company’s acquisition strategies from some corners of Wall Street, the upside potential is strong and Stifel agrees.

The Stifel price target is a gigantic $285, and the consensus target is $273. The stock closed Tuesday at $146.74, down almost 11% — and shares just got slaughtered after Citron Research published a short seller note with a $50 price target asking if Valeant could be the Pharma version of Enron.

Zogenix

We actively covered this stock a couple of years ago, as Zogenix Inc. (NASDAQ: ZGNX) had a top long-lasting pain-killer approved. The pharmaceutical company develops therapies for the treatment of central nervous system disorders. It has moved on in a big way since selling the approved drug Zohydro, doing a big reverse split on the stock and recently supplying additional information as requested by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for its Phase 3 program of ZX008, low-dose fenfluramine for Dravet Syndrome, infant epilepsy.

Stifel is cautiously optimistic on the outcome for the ZX008 trials. It expects a three-to-six month follow-up echocardiogram after the last administration of ZX008 and views the information procured as additional safety data. The primary endpoint in the clinicals is the percentage change in convulsive seizures from baseline. Stifel also noted that the company has indicated it will be conducting what is called proof-of-concept studies in other pediatric epilepsy indications.

The Stifel target price is $28, and the consensus target is $24.80. The shares closed Tuesday at $12.22, down over 10%.

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These stocks are not for the faint of heart, and only suitable for extremely aggressive accounts. That said, the bottom line is they all have huge upside targets at Stifel, and if they only got halfway there, they would still be home runs.

 

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