It is not that Sprint Corp. (NYSE: S) management has done an awful job as its attempts to right a sinking ship, or that the number four wireless company has not matched or bettered the offerings to consumers by its three larger rivals. Sprint plays in the “zero sum” game of the wireless industry, where most gains come from stealing market share. Brand power, distribution and quality rule in a business where all companies have the same products and nearly the same subscription plans for customers.
According to Strategic Analytics, there were 370 million wireless subscriptions in the fourth quarter, counting both retail and wholesale. The U.S. population is under 320 million. Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ) and AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) have about 250 million of those subscriptions. While Verizon and AT&T are barely growing, Sprint is losing ground and T-Mobile US Inc. (NYSE: TMUS) is growing. Both of the smaller companies lack the balance sheet heft of the two larger ones. Eventually this will tell in infrastructure, marketing muscle and the ability to bid for spectrum. AT&T’s buyout of DirecTV presumably will give it a chance to cross-sell customers and build or at least hold its own.
While Sprint and T-Mobile sometimes do well in quality rankings, these are dominated by AT&T and Verizon. Verizon and AT&T did well in the recent J.D. Power survey of service by region. In the most recent ACSI survey, the carriers rank closer to one another. For smaller carriers to take market share, each at least has to boast some superiority in service.
Among the most important weapons that carriers have are the discounts they offer. This has become a game of parity. One company offers free phones, with a subscription package or payment plan. Another matches it, or makes an attractive offer with lower prices on data, talk or text. Consumers who watch their charges closely likely find that no one offer is substantially better than another. The carriers have management too sharp to make offers unattractive enough to lose any meaningful portion of their bases.
Wall Street has taken a vote about the prospects of the companies as well. Over the course of the past year, Sprint’s shares have fallen 22%, while AT&T and Verizon are close to flat and T-Mobile’s are higher by 45%. Just as important, Sprint’s market cap is $19 billion, T-Mobile’s $33 billion, AT&T’s $208 billion and Verizon’s $187 billion. The two larger companies are also in the landline and fiber business, but most of their prospects are in wireless.
Sprint has lost. The question now is how it remains a force in the wireless market at all.
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