How to Interpret Warren Buffett's New AT&T and Kraft Heinz Stakes: The Big Picture

Investing

Published: November 16, 2015 12:35 pm

Last Updated: January 13, 2020 5:09 pm

If there is one investor who is the best known of the past few decades, it would have to be Warren Buffett. This is why his Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A) is so closely watched when it comes to portfolio changes, investments and acquisitions. 24/7 Wall St. tracks the so-called Buffett holdings each quarter and as new changes are learned. It turns out that the most recent Berkshire Hathaway holdings contained more changes than have been seen in some time.

What stood out to some investors in the Berkshire Hathaway holdings as of September 30, 2015, was a new stake listed in AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) and a massively larger stake in Kraft Heinz Co. (NASDAQ: KHC). 24/7 Wall St. will address AT&T first and the Kraft Heinz stake second, but that new Kraft Heinz stake was not grouped entirely in the equities amount previously of $106.1 billion from June 30 — and the total equity holdings for September 30 was listed as a record of $127.4 billion.

The first thing that investors need to consider about the new AT&T stake is that it should not really be considered all that new. Berkshire’s holding of AT&T is actually tied to AT&T’s acquisition of DirecTV that was completed this summer.

It was more or less an unknown how the conglomerate’s portfolio managers would actually treat AT&T’s shares on a post-merger basis. Now the reality appears to be that the DirecTV stake was at first a play on media and monthly subscription services, which then may have ultimately become a cheaper way of owning AT&T rather than just buying AT&T shares outright. That would then come with yet more subscriber revenue exposure ahead and the most impressive dividend of the largest companies in America. Had this not been the case, then logic would dictate that those AT&T shares would have been sold off in the open market over the course of the quarter.

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The AT&T stake was listed as 59.32 million shares as of September 30, 2015. Berkshire Hathaway’s stake in DirecTV in June was listed as the same stake of 31.353 million shares, but this was after the stake had been previously raised in prior periods. The formal merger terms were in cash and stock, as follows:

As a DIRECTV shareholder, you are entitled to receive for each share of DIRECTV common stock an amount equal to $28.50 in cash, and 1.892 shares of AT&T common stock, which represents the exchange ratio determined per the terms of the transaction. You may also receive cash in lieu of a fractional share of stock based on a per share price of $35.14.

When you multiply the 31.353 million DirecTV shares by the 1.982 exchange ratio, without considering the cash portion of the deal, you get just over 59.3 million shares of the surviving company — and that matches the 59.32 million shares. In short, Buffett took the cash but kept the surviving shares in AT&T.

If you just looked at this morning’s headlines around AT&T, you would have thought that Buffett and his newer portfolio managers just acquired AT&T shares in the open market. That is not the case at all. Here are the main headlines seen elsewhere on Monday morning:

AT&T (T) Stock Up as Warren Buffet Adds to Portfolio (TheStreet)
Warren Buffett adds AT&T to portfolio, cuts stakes in Goldman, Wal-Mart (MarketWatch)
Warren Buffett Cuts Stake in Goldman, Wal-Mart, Adds AT&T to Portfolio, 13-F Says (Barron’s)
AT&T and GM among Buffett’s Q3 adds (Seeking Alpha)
Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Shows New Stake in AT&T (T), Pares Wal-mart (WMT), Goldman (GS) Positions — 13F (Street Insider)
Berkshire Hathaway Takes New Stake in AT&T, With 59,320,756 Shares — 13F Filing (Dow Jones)

Another consideration here is that Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ) is also a current Buffett stock holding. Verizon was the same stake at 15 million shares, but that had been raised two quarters ago.

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The new total Berkshire Hathaway holdings, based on September 30 share prices, would value the new AT&T stake at roughly $1.9 billion and would value the Verizon stake at $645 million or so.

It is no secret that Buffett loves dividends. It is also now the case that investors can receive better dividend yields in telecom than they can in tobacco. AT&T’s stock drop in 2015 now gives it a yield of almost 5.8%, and Verizon’s pullback from highs has its dividend just shy of 5.0%.

Kraft Heinz is the stake that should stand out the most to investors. It was already well known that Buffett was an investor in Kraft Foods and separately was a participant, along with 3G Capital, in Heinz. Then that merger of the two food giants gave Berkshire Hathaway a massive stake in the combined company.

Kraft Heinz was formally listed as a huge 325,634,818 shares, worth almost $23 billion at the end of September. That stake was listed as being over $23.5 billion all-in on Kraft Heinz, as of the previously released September 30 balance sheet. The 13F filing of the full holdings showed the stake as being worth $22.983 billion.

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The Kraft Heinz stake had been previously written about in Berkshire Hathaway’s third-quarter earnings and balance sheet document. That specifies how the transaction looks and includes data about 3G, stated as follows:

Berkshire’s initial investments consisted of 425 million shares of Heinz Holding common stock, warrants, which were exercised in June 2015, to acquire approximately 46 million additional shares of common stock at one cent per share, and cumulative compounding preferred stock with a liquidation preference of $8 billion. The aggregate cost of these investments was $12.25 billion.

3G also acquired 425 million shares of Heinz Holding common stock for $4.25 billion. In addition, Heinz Holding reserved 39.6 million shares of common stock for issuance to its management and directors under equity grants, including stock options.

What has to be kept in mind now is that Berkshire Hathaway’s quarterly financial filing showed that approximately 58% of the aggregate fair value was concentrated in the equity securities of just four companies. These were listed as follows:

Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) as $25.2 billion
Coca-Cola Co. (NYSE: KO) as $16.0 billion
International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE: IBM) as $11.7 billion
American Express Co. (NYSE: AXP) as $11.2 billion

Now insert the more expanded equity value of $127.4 billion rather than the $106 billion prior grand total. The $22.98 billion for Kraft would now come to a rounded $87.1 billion. Future filings may say that Berkshire Hathaway’s public equity holdings are now dominated by five companies, comprising about 68.4% of the value of the public equities portfolios.

Buffett’s latest portfolio changes looked very different from past changes. It turns out that there were exceptions and reasons for each. Investors always need to consider the logic behind what they see reported just on a static basis as if there is really a vacuum.

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