If you just looked at a 369-point gain on the Dow on Friday, you might think it was a great week. That gain merely wiped out two days of big losses and the Dow closed up about 0.2% on the week. The S&P 500 was up less than 0.1%.
What you are seeing is a continued and persistent willingness for four years now of the investing public to buy stocks on weakness. 24/7 Wall St. reviews dozens of analyst upgrades and downgrades each day of the week, and that ends up being hundreds of research reports each week. This past week had many new aggressive Buy and Outperform ratings on stocks upgraded, initiated or reiterated.
Most analysts’ Buy ratings in Dow and S&P 500 stocks come with upside of 8% to 15%, and some may even call for 25% upside, but some analyst calls become much more aggressive. Some calls project upside of nearly 50% — and then some are looking for a stock to rise as much as 100%.
It is this group of analyst calls with massive upside, close to 50% or even 100%, where investors are often given an expanded review. After all, this is way out of line for traditional research calls. In almost every instance, the massive upside potential is because a company is much more risky than most Dow or S&P 500 stocks.
Investors have to be extremely careful here. Super-high potential rewards come with much higher risks. Conservative investors should avoid these calls, almost with no exceptions. It is even possible that some of these companies may not survive the tests of time. The “widows and orphans” investors better stay clear.
Another thing to consider here is that Wall Street analysts often have no more information or insight than institutional or sophisticated investors. Many analysts also make calls that often never see the bullish case unfold, and in many cases their assumptions are flawed. So, with all caveats and warnings noted, here are some of this past week’s analyst calls with massive upside.
American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (NYSE: AEO) was reiterated as Buy with a $24 price target at Jefferies on Thursday after it beat earnings. This is versus a $15.80 closing price on Friday, representing a whopping 51% upside. Jefferies said that American Eagle remains poised to gain share in the teen space as sales momentum continued into the fourth quarter with a solid Thanksgiving weekend.
CF Industries Holdings Inc. (NYSE: CF) was already a Buy rating at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, but the stock was added to the prized US 1 List. It was also given a $65.00 price objective, versus a $45.00 prior close, and its consensus price target was $57.16 at that time. The fertilizer stock has a 52-week trading range of $43.57 to $70.32, so Merrill Lynch was making the call close to its recent lows and the stock has traded there before. CF is also valued at only about 10 times earnings.
Fitbit Inc. (NYSE: FIT) was raised to Overweight from Equal Weight with a $49.00 price target at Barclays this past week, and its stock rose 10% on Friday to close out at $33.37 on strong volume. Fitbit still has a consensus price target close to $50, and it has a post-IPO range of $26.46 to $51.90. This call represents 47% upside if accurate, but are we supposed to believe that the Barclay’s target being $1.50 under the consensus target means that it is conservative?
Mobileye N.V. (NYSE: MBLY) was started with a Buy rating at Evercore ISI on Wednesday. The stock was assigned a $68 price target, versus a prior $43.46 closing price. Mobileye had a consensus analyst price target of close to $72.50 at the time ($72.10 by Friday) and has a 52-week trading range of $32.41 to $64.48. If Evercore’s call is right, this leaves an implied upside of 58% or so.
SLM Corp. (NASDAQ: SLM) was started as Overweight with a $10.00 price target at JPMorgan this week. The stock closed at $6.71 before the call and closed the week out at $6.75. SLM has a consensus price target of $10.72 and a 52-week range of $6.33 to $10.76. Maybe there is still money in student loans after all, and trading at barely 10 times earnings is not exactly expensive. Of course this one comes with a past, and there is always headline risk in an election year.
Additional analyst calls with massive upside from last week are below.
Arcadia Biosciences Inc. (NASDAQ: RKDA) was reiterated as Outperform with an $8.00 price target at Credit Suisse on Thursday. This is much less known, and its market cap is not even $180 million. Arcadia shares had closed at $3.96 right before this call and ended the week at $4.04. This represents about 100% upside.
Keep in mind that only two analysts cover Arcadia, and it is less than a year old as a public stock. Credit Suisse’s call was based on Dow AgroSciences’ agreement being a solid positive for Arcadia and its ag-tech that could be another solid growth building block.
Deckers Outdoor Corp. (NYSE: DECK) was reiterated as Buy with a $72 price target (versus a $48.91 prior close) at Canaccord Genuity. The firm said that it has planned promotions and minimal cancellations, and also said that UGG is evolving and expanding.
Deckers shares went out on Friday at $50.41, and that is down almost half from the $99.88 close. Deckers has also made investors say Ugg! during its drop, and warm winters are not kind to this company.
TG Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: TGTX) was started as Outperform with a $29.00 price target at FBR Capital Markets on Tuesday. The shares had a prior close of $13.18, but the stock closed at $14.12 on Friday, after the schedule of data presentations at the 57th American Society of Hematology Annual Meeting was recapped.
TG Therapeutics shares have traded as high as $20.00 this year, and the consensus analyst target is $25.71. Keep in mind that the company has no real revenue, and it is not expected to for at least this year and next year.
uniQure N.V. (NASDAQ: QURE) was started as Buy and was given a $40.00 fair value estimate at Janney Capital Markets this past week. What stands out is that uniQure had a $21.57 close before the call, but it closed at $18.69 on Friday. This company has been public less than two years and has a 52-week range of $13.03 to $36.38.
Jefferies also maintained a Buy rating on uniQure but lowered its price target to $36 from $40. uniQure has a mere $400 million market cap, but Janney’s report said:
Hemophilia B readout (in next eight weeks) is likely to establish uniQure’s AAV5 vectors modularity; pole position for the treatment of Hemophilia; and further validate its insect cell-based manufacturing. Importantly, with compelling Sanfilippo B data, uniQure is uniquely positioned to potentially alter the treatment of other lysosomal storage disorders with neurologic manifestations. uniQure has first mover advantage in multiple therapeutic areas, and current EV ~$200M discounts its unique position and the transformational agreement with Bristol-Myers.
Again, all these stocks are far riskier than traditional Dow stocks. Some of these companies are more widely followed than others, but this much upside obviously comes with much more risk.
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