Investing

3 2015 Train Wreck Stocks That Could Recover Big in 2016

Rafi Farber

Published: December 31, 2015 7:20 am

Last Updated: January 13, 2020 3:34 pm

This year has been a horrible one for some big name stocks. Many industry leaders in the resources sector have lost most of their value. Other select companies have collapsed to the same degree for little apparent reason other than not living up to high expectations.

These three stocks are down 70% for 2015, but are still sound, if struggling companies that have the potential to rebound strongly when conditions change and sentiment reverses. While the bottom may not yet be in for them, when it does come, these stocks look set to boomerang higher when the supply of sellers finally runs out.

Fossil

Little did shareholders know that Fossil Group Inc. (NASDAQ: FOSL) shares were doomed from the start of 2015. Its 52-week high was hit on the very first trading day of the year, and it was all downhill from there. Sure, Fossil has not had a great year business-wise, but it hasn’t been the total disaster reflected in its collapsing share price. There are also no obvious systemic problems in the watch business that would cause the industry as we know it to collapse to the point that people stop wearing timepieces.

Though Fossil’s fall began at the very beginning of 2015, it was greatly exacerbated in November when a combination of poor third-quarter earnings, together with its acquisition of Misfit for $250 million, a wearable tech firm that sells high-tech Internet-connected watches, pushed the stock down 36% in a day. Buying a high-tech watch company in the face of falling low-tech watch sales doesn’t seem like the catastrophic choice shareholders made it out to be though. There’s good sense in it. Now with expectations lowered, Fossil at five-year lows and a new business to attend to, any earnings beat could drive shares higher as fast as they collapsed in November.
Freeport-McMoRan

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (NYSE: FCX) had a horrible 2015, and for good reason. It used to be an industry leader, but this combination miner/driller/fracker cannot even pull out a gross profit in the current environment, as commodity prices have collapsed across the board. It is bleeding cash fast, and if commodity markets stay this way for the next two or three years, the company could go bankrupt.

Making the situation even worse is its enormous debt pile of over $20 billion, which at Freeport’s current market cap of $8 billion makes it leveraged 2.5 to 1.

However, the good side of the story is that the largest chunks of its debt are not due until 2018 and beyond, giving some time for commodity markets to recover before the company is drowned in debt payments. Together with its frantic efforts to cut expenses and conserve cash, this gives it at least some breathing room. Freeport still has the capital necessary to take advantage of any upturn in commodity prices, and it likely will rocket higher when the reversal finally comes, as long as it comes before 2018.

Freeport has recovered from crises like this before, particularly after the 2008 oil collapse when the stock was right back at its highs in two years’ time for a more than 600% gain.

Tuesday Morning

Tuesday Morning Corp. (NASDAQ: TUES) has had a perpetual bad case of the Mondays in 2015. Like Fossil, its highs came at the very beginning of the year, and it has been on a downward ski slope ever since. The company is not in any kind of financial distress though. With no debt, and able to eke out an annual profit with the help of its signature holiday fourth quarter, it’s in OK shape.

Tuesday Morning’s business model is also consistent with its financial statements. It sells excess supply of generally high-priced kitchen merchandise at a discount that it acquires from retailers who are overstocked due to cancellations, bankruptcies or general excess capacity. One would expect slim margins and a big holiday quarter with that kind of model, which is exactly what we see. So why the spectacular fall in 2015? Expectations were just too high and the company could not meet them.

But that doesn’t mean it isn’t slowly succeeding. With a company like Tuesday Morning, once it reaches a certain top line threshold, quarterly profits will be more consistent and it won’t have to rely strictly on the holiday season. It could be growing faster, but given the 70% fall since 2015 began, it looks like a good buy on the cheap for 2016.