Investing
10 Top 2016 Stock Picks From Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch and Other Key Analysts
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It is a new year and the bull market may seem a bit interrupted now that 2015 brought no net gain in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500. While that doesn’t mean that the bull market is dead, it has now been almost seven years since that major V-bottom took place in 2009. What seems more and more likely here is that 2016 could be the year for stock pickers rather than for index trackers.
24/7 Wall St. reviews dozens of analyst reports each day, and this becomes hundreds of analyst calls each week. It turns out that there is massive upside expected by Wall Street’s top analysts in some of the top large cap stocks. So, which well-known and large cap stocks to do the major analysts on Wall Street like for 2016?
Included in this analysis is a brief synopsis of large cap stock picks that were published in the second half of December for big upside in 2016. These are from firms like Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, RBC Capital Markets and others. Included is a brief synopsis of their calls, along with links to a larger call, and also other supporting or opposite calls seen elsewhere in the news.
Please note: the idea is not to just blindly follow analysts. Some analyst calls prove to be very wrong, some painfully so. Analysts often have opposite views from one firm to another. Investors should think about what it means that even some of the most popular stocks in the world have a very high short interest.
Here are 10 top large cap stocks with major calls seen for upside in 2016. As a reminder, these are the large cap stocks with values exceeding $10 billion (and then some), rather than the most aggressive upside calls seen in small cap and speculative stocks.
Apple
> Year-end price: $105.26
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) seems to have stubbed its toe at the end of the year, but this remains one of the top end-of-year picks from Goldman Sachs. It is on the firm’s prized Conviction Buy list and was initially included on that list with a $163.00 price target — some $15.00 higher than the consensus analyst target now. Keep in mind that many analysts have lowered expectations for Apple and are expected to keep doing so into 2016. The big issue was that Goldman Sachs is looking at Apple as a subscription model ahead, with massive recurring revenues, rather than just being a seller of the top tech gadgets.
If Goldman Sachs’ initial view becomes reality, Apple could have over 50% upside. Even the consensus price target of $148.00 implies over 40% upside from the year-end price of $105.26.
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (NYSE: BABA) had a rough 2015 and many analysts were forced to dial back their initial 2014 targets handily. A recent screen from the Merrill Lynch list of big losers that could pop showed that the largest online and mobile commerce company (by gross merchandise volume) could return to a much better 2016. Alibaba had the highest profile IPO of 2014, but it has lost one-third of its value. Merrill Lynch likes the dominance of Alibaba’s core business and the barriers to entry. What if China’s woes have already begun to look less negative? The Merrill Lynch price target for the stock was at $101.00, but the consensus analyst target was down at $95.59.
If Merrill Lynch is right, that could be almost 25% upside for Alibaba. The consensus analyst target would imply more like 17% upside for 2016. Is it possible that analysts are just still too positive? RBC also featured Alibaba among its top picks for online stocks in 2016.
Amgen
> Year-end price: $162.33
Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) is a top biotech favorite of Goldman Sachs. The firm has had a Buy rating on Amgen for a while now, but its more recent $213.00 price target would imply over 30% upside in total return (with dividends) from the $164.00 level, if Goldman Sachs’ upside for the Repatha cholesterol drug pans out. Investors need to consider one key issue here: Goldman Sachs has the highest target of all analysts with price predictions, and the consensus price target is a much more conservative $189.00. This is also an election year, when politicians likely will be targeting drug costs. On that front, Amgen has been targeted over costs in prior years.
If Goldman Sachs is right, Amgen has over 30% upside for 2016. If the average analyst is right, then Amgen’s expected return in 2016 would by closer to 19%. What if everyone is just too optimistic here?
GE
> Year-end price: $31.15
General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) was the best conglomerate of 2015, and the independent research firm Argus sees far more upside for 2016 out of Jeff Immelt and the GE team. Argus is now has among the highest GE analyst price targets on Wall Street, but that is based on GE’s guidance, asset sales and an aggressive share buyback coming this year.
The firm’s price target was raised to $36.00 from $34.00 right before year’s end, which would have been more than 20% in upside from the lower price at the time. The consensus price target of $31.77 leaves a much more conservative analyst picture for 2016 of only about 5%, if you include GE’s dividend. GE is also one of 24/7 Wall St.’s top 10 stocks for the next decade.
Enterprise Products Partners
> Year-end price: $25.58
Enterprise Products Partners L.P. (NYSE: EPD) is still considered one of the best-run master limited partnerships (MLPs) by the investing community. That being said, sector pressure from the energy woes has taken a toll. Enterprise’s units are down almost one-third from the 2015 peak, and Merrill Lynch has had it rated as Buy. It would seem that the price target of $35.00 from Merrill Lynch in 2015 might have some room to come lower, but the reality is that Enterprise still has a $34.00 consensus price target. Its yield-equivalent from its distribution is now over 6% as well.
If Merrill Lynch is right, there is an equivalent total return opportunity here of over 40%. We are talking about the energy patch here, even if it is in infrastructure and the toll road model.
3M
> Year-end price: $150.64
3M Co. (NYSE: MMM) was a top Merrill Lynch pick screened from late in December from the Merrill Lynch US 1 list — and it was also one of the top 10 picks for 2016. 3M’s stock was burned toward the end of 2015 when the company disappointed on guidance. Still, Merrill Lynch thought the firm was conservative and it sees a better earnings picture than other analysts, and that 3M’s stock drop brought an outstanding entry point for new capital and accounts that are adding to positions. 3M investors receive a 2.75% dividend.
The Merrill Lynch price target of $178.00 would imply more than 20% upside for 2016 if you include the dividend. Still, the much more conservative consensus price target of $159.36 implies about 8.5% upside for 2016. Does it matter if 3M’s 52-week high is $170.50?
PayPal Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: PYPL) is now free from the firm grasp of eBay, and Goldman Sachs loves the value and growth here for far longer than just 2016. Goldman Sachs has a price target of $45.00 that is over $3.50 higher than the consensus price target. The firm even initially put PayPal on the Conviction Buy list in October, right before PayPal’s strong earnings report. Quite simply, Goldman Sachs sees PayPal not bending to waves of new competition in the online payments space due to its base of millions upon millions of customers already embedded here and scared to try out new payment platforms.
If Goldman Sachs is right, then there is 24% upside from the year-end price. If the consensus analyst target of $41.41 from year’s end proves right, then there is a more conservative 14% implied upside. PayPal’s post-split high is $42.55.
Starbucks
> Year-end price: $60.03
Starbucks Corp. (NASDAQ: SBUX) has taken over the civilized world’s coffee market and wants to do the same with tea (and maybe even in wine). Goldman Sachs likes the wide moat that Starbucks has built up. It sees huge overseas expansion possibilities still awaiting in key growth markets.
Goldman Sachs most recently had a $69.00 price target, which would imply close to 15% upside for 2016 if you add in the dividend. The consensus price target is closer to $68.00, and investors should consider that Starbucks has a split-adjusted all-time high of $64.00.
Teva Pharmaceutical
> Year-end price: $65.64
Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. (NYSE: TEVA) is one of the top picks for 2016 from RBC Capital Markets in health care stocks. The firm loves the generic drug gian,t and it could potentially be giving investors the best entry point in years. One of the drivers here is the huge acquisition of Allergan’s generic-drug business for $40.5 billion in cash and stock, after failing to get Mylan to the wedding altar. RBC sees an improving product mix combined with accelerating growth from Teva having the largest generic pipeline in the United States. Does it help if Goldman Sachs was positive in November or that Teva is one of the 24/7 Wall St. top 10 stocks to own for a decade?
RBC has an $85.00 price target for Teva, much higher than the consensus target of $77.59. The RBC target implies a total return upside of more than 30%, with the 2% dividend yield included. Teva’s consensus target signals upside of 20%, if you include the dividend in the total return. The 52-week high is $72.31.
Visa
> Year-end price: $77.55
Visa Inc. (NYSE: V) was just added to the prized Conviction Buy List by Goldman Sacks in mid-December. This may be one of the newer Dow Jones Industrial Average components, but the firm sees potentially larger upside even after a 19% gain in 2015. Visa is considered a winner in the electronic payment and IT services space, and Goldman Sachs sees Visa holding its share and winning in payment processing despite continued sector pressure from cloud cannibalization.
Goldman Sachs’ $86.00 price target for Visa comes with potentially more than 10% upside, with its low dividend included. What stands out here is that the consensus analyst price target was almost $86.50 at the end of 2015. Now this call might not seem aggressive at all. Elsewhere, RBC calls Visa as a top tech pick despite its financial processing activities.
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