The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) lost 2.2% in 2015 to close at 17,425.03 at the end of the year. Investors should take note that this was the first losing year since 2008. Then they should consider the all-time DJIA high of from 2015 was 18,351.40, up a whopping 183% or so from the Great Recession’s V-bottom low of 6,469.95 in 2009. Does this mean that the bull market has been interrupted or does it mean that the bull is dead?

24/7 Wall St. has been projecting the bull and bear case for the Dow and its 30 components for years now. This worked rather well during the first five years of the bull market, but the methodology for the peak-Dow versus reality ended up about 800 points in the wrong direction compared with the 19,142 DJIA target for 2015. What this means is that the analysts were simply too aggressive in each of the 30 Dow stock price targets. Amazingly, the same methodology at the end of 2015 would have been even more optimistic for 2016 — to DJIA at 19,700!

It is easy and has been easy to get caught up in the bull market fever. In fact, investors and analysts who predict losses (particularly short sellers) are generally hated by the public. The first consideration here that seems obvious, particularly in light of the first week’s record-breaking DJIA losses for any year, is quite simply that the analysts are hanging on to the bull’s horns too much: Analysts are still just too damned optimistic!

Again, 24/7 Wall St. just does not see the huge upside case for 2016 being all that realistic. That level of 19,700 was of course theoretical via a methodology, so we wanted to run the inverse of this by assuming the most negative analyst price target on each of the 30 Dow stocks from Thomson Reuters and then seeing what the overall average Dow stock’s downside might look like. In this case, the average Dow stock could fall by a whopping 13.48% in 2016 — and an averaging of the losses using the same methodology would point to DJIA at 15,076 in 2016, if you don’t consider the dividends.

If the notion that 15,076 is too low, we then took out the three outliers of the most negative analyst calls. This turned out to be an average downside of 10.73% for the other 27 Dow stocks, generating a downside of 15,555 for 2016. Again, these are using the worst downside target on each of the 30 Dow stocks (or 27 in that case) from analysts and saying that the average would apply evenly.

Using the average downside is not really how the Dow works because it is a price-weighted index. That is old-school as is, but admitting that not even the consensus crowd will be right universally on 30 stocks means that the average acts without trying to pick the real winner or loser stocks as outliers. Keeping the dividends out of the total return also keeps the numbers perhaps more bearish than they might otherwise be. The average Dow stock dividend was about 2.8% at the end of 2015, and the average yield from the 2016 Dogs of the Dow had an average yield of 3.85% at the end of 2015.

Would the DJIA at 15,076 or even 15,555 in 2016 really be atrocious? It sounds bad when you consider that the 2015 all-time was 18,351.40, at least on the surface. The 15,076 would imply a drop of about 17.85% from the peak, and the 15,555 DJIA minus the outliers would represent a drop of about 15.2% from the peak. Now consider that neither one of these are even in the classic bear market for a formal 20% drop.

The Dow’s low for the first seven trading sessions of 2016 was 16,232.03, and the Dow challenged 16,100 during the second week of January. This just keeps it hard to be so bullish that a Dow 19,700 seems even remotely realistic. Still, using the average of the most negative analyst targets in the Thomson Reuters universe might give the value and sideline investors some confidence. After all, even though the Dow and S&P 500 both hit 10% corrections last week, investors have bought literally every single dip and correction for over four years now.

Another consideration here is that three of the most negative analyst targets of the 30 Dow stocks still call for positive gains. Also, the most negative Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) analyst price target was only about 3.1% lower than the $105.26 close of 2015, and Apple even breached under $100 in the first few days of 2016. Most investors and analysts still view Apple as a cheap stock with far more upside. That could be misguided and the same mistake as was made in 2000, but that’s how the world view is today.

This is also the outright negativity in the other top tech stocks in the Dow: Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) still has the worst analyst target, down at $17.00, while Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) has a most negative analyst target of $24.00 and Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) has a most negative analyst target of $39.00. Those targets are so negative that it would imply Cisco cannot sell any new products outside of the United States, that Intel’s PC business actually disappears or that Satya Nadella’s plan for Microsoft would eat up business revenues. Anything is possible, but again these are the most negative of the negative targets.

24/7 Wall St. has decided to look at the Dow stocks with the greatest projected downside from the end of 2015 to the most bearish analyst price target from Thomson Reuters. Some of these seem extreme, or overly extreme, and it is possible that they are old holdover calls from the past that have not been updated. If these downside targets are not hit in 2016, perhaps the negativity has become overstretched.

Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) is one of the top Dow stocks by index weighting, with its shares well over $100. Boeing’s valuation was close to 15 times expected 2016 earnings and it has a 2.5% yield. Shares rose 14.07% in 2015, but the year-end price of $144.59 comes with a consensus price target of $163.78 — and a most bearish price target of $101.00. If the most bearish case proves right, Boeing could have 30% downside. One issue to consider here is that Boeing’s record $400 plus billion in backlog could suffer from cancellations as many growth markets and Middle Eastern markets could decide to trim their plane orders. Weaker growth, low commodities and slap-you-silly oil prices just don’t bode well for the global growth story.

Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) was a marginal performer in 2015 with a 0.6% gain to $27.16, but that may be entirely due to its 3.1% dividend yield. The negativity regarding Cisco has been monumental from time to time, but a $17 price target from the most negative analyst would imply 2016 downside of some 37.4%, without considering the dividend. If Cisco were to fall to $17.00, it would probably be worse than a bear market, and it means that Cisco is losing its ability to sell and to acquire future technology. It likely would be an aggressive buyer of its stock at that point too.

Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) was the top Dow stock of 2014 and took a likely necessary breather for a 2.2% drop in 2015. Its 2.8% dividend yield kept things from getting worse. Intel’s $34.45 year-end close compared to a consensus analyst target of $36.16, but the most negative price target of $24.00 almost seems like it was fabricated from the “PCs have no place” crowd. Intel has grown in the Internet of Things, has made (money-losing) efforts to gain in smartphones and mobile processors and could win from virtual reality ahead if it can fend off competitive threats. Intel was last seen down around $32.00, so its start to 2016 was indicating fears that it would give very cautious views. Is 14 times earnings fair?

Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) enjoyed a great 2015 with a 22.6% gain to $55.48. The consensus price target of $57.00 at the end of 2015 actually has ticked higher to almost $58.00 at the start of 2016, but that was as shares slid lower to $52.00. The most bearish analyst target of $39.00 seems hard to imagine, particularly after Goldman Sachs even threw in its Microsoft-bear towel. Microsoft was still valued at about 18 times expected earnings at the end of 2015 because of its sharp rise in 2015. This remains a transitional company, and so far Satya Nadella is outshining the bears.

Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE) has been a stock that could do no wrong since it was added to the Dow. It was the Dow’s top winner in 2015, with a return of 31.4% to $62.50. The consensus analyst target was up at $72.56, but Thomson Reuters still indicates that the most negative analyst target is all the way down at $32.75. Nike just keeps winning. and this has to be a value call, based on being valued at about 30 times consensus earnings estimates. Nike did split recently, so its dominance in the Dow is less than it used to be. Nike’s shares were down over $4.00 from the end of 2015 after about eight trading sessions. This negative case on valuation after being the top Dow stock last year seems justifiable, but getting a view down into the low-$30s to mid-$30s seems overly harsh, even for the most bearish view, for a projected drop of over 47%, without considering the dividend.

So, what else is driving the Dow in 2016? As a reminder, 24/7 Wall St. has been very much in disbelief of the bullish target of 19,700 for the Dow in 2016. That is even higher than last year’s view, and it is at a time when the economic prospects look darker than they did a year ago. So it means that the overall analyst crowd was just too optimistic on its price targets of the 30 Dow stocks.

So, what else is a serious issue for the markets and the economy to fear for a double-digit market decline, if you use an average of the most bearish analyst target prices in each of the 30 Dow stocks?

Economic growth in the United States and in growth markets looked better at the start of 2015 than it did at the start of 2016. That was without the big 2016 market drop in the first week, and there is a serious risk that sub-$30 oil could be seen. Commodity weakness persists, as does a strong dollar.

Then there are other forces that move the markets. The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to keep raising interest rates gradually off of a seven-year zero interest rate policy. China and Brazil are continuing to slow, also pressuring U.S. exports in top of the strong dollar. Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) warned that the big growth cycle was of course slowing. The Wall Street Journal surveys indicate that even a 17% of a U.S. recession in 2016 was the highest percentage of any survey for three years.

Dow stocks had an average forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of about 16.5 for 2016 at the end of the year, and that is slightly lower after the first week and half of 2016. A market value at 16 times earnings is not super-expensive, but it is not cheap either.

There is an “E” risk though in any P/E analysis: If the energy earnings keep moving toward losses, and if the strong U.S. dollar persists at a time that the global growth slows, then the earnings estimates just may be too high.

While 24/7 Wall St. refuses to endorse a big upside ahead for 2016 from the 2015 year-end price, an average view of the Dow’s 30 stocks, when considering the most bearish analyst targets, just might bring some comfort to the bulls. The DJIA hit 16,151 on Wednesday (Jan. 13), so does a drop to 15,075 (or even 15,555) sound like the end of the world? It shouldn’t after the mega-bull market we have seen over about the past seven years.

There is also an ongoing global strife issue. Does an election year help or hurt? Here was a case by case view for 25 of the 30 Dow stocks with bullish and bearish scenarios for 2016:

• American Express Co. (NYSE: AXP) for an 18.00% expected total return.
• Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) for a 42.60% expected total return.
• Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) could have clear skies for a 15.8% expected total return.
• Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) for a 4.87% expected total return.
• Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) for a 15.40% total return (really?).
• Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) for a 15.87% expected total return.
• E.I. du Pont de Nemours and Co. (NYSE: DD), or DuPont, for an expected 9.64% total return.
• Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) for a 10.90% expected total return.
• General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) for 4.95% expected total return.
• Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) for an expected 17.36% total return.
• Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD) for an expected 8.40% total return.
• International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE: IBM) for an 11.94% expected total return.
• Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) for a 7.75% expected total return.
• Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) for an 8.06% expected total return.
• JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) for a 13.17% expected total return.
• 3M Co. (NYSE: MMM) for an 8.51% expected total return.
• McDonald’s Corp. (NYSE: MCD) for a 3.46% expected total return.
• Merck & Co. Inc. (NYSE: MRK) for a 21.35% expected total return.
• Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) for a 5.34% expected total return.
• Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE) for an 18.15% expected total return.
• Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) for a 29.00% expected total return.
• United Technologies Corp. (NYSE: UTX) for a 15.57% expected total return.
• Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ) for a 13.33% expected total return.
• Visa Inc. (NYSE: V) for a 12.22% expected total return.
• Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS) for a 13.87% expected total return.

2016 is shaping up to be a volatile year. Maybe 19,700 just sounds too good to be true, but using an average of the Dow stocks for a downside to the most bearish price targets down close to 15,000 might not be the end of the world. Stay tuned.

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