Investing
7 Great Consumer-Driven Companies That Need to Start Paying Dividends in 2016
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When it comes to returning capital to shareholders, dividends and stock buybacks generally are considered the top yardsticks. Buybacks can be opportunistic, but committing to a dividend payment is a way that companies signal to their shareholders that they can sustain earnings power for years into the future. Now consider that half or more of investor returns through time are generated from dividends.
Unfortunately, 2015 was the first year in six that the markets did not rise. And now the bull market has been further interrupted ahead of what would be its seventh anniversary. This is putting investors in the mood to seek higher quality stocks, those that have stable or predictable earnings ahead and that pay solid dividends.
Investors often chase dividend stocks, but there is a separate class of companies that many investors have to wonder about. These are the companies that could easily pay dividends and simply refuse to do so. Some of these have great growth stories but are using their available capital for other purposes. So, what happens when great growth stories look mature or begin to fade? This is when companies should use some of that excess capital that has been built up over the years to reward shareholders with dividends.
Companies that can easily pay dividends but refuse to should be considered the dividend sinners, or dividend misers.
24/7 Wall St. has identified seven very well-known companies with a consumer focus that need to pay dividends. They should start in 2016, even if some companies may fight that urge. Again, this means that they will have to manage their businesses for consistent earnings and cash flows. You rarely meet managers and executives who are eager to announce that their dividends are being cut or suspended.
The start of 2016 seems to have put investors into the mood to reflect on their investments and focus mostly on companies treating their shareholders the best. Again, dividends can make up half of all total returns through time.
The so-called dividend aristocrats are those companies that have hiked their dividends for 25 years in a row. That makes it appropriate to call those companies that can but don’t pay dividends by the name misers or sinners. As of the start of 2016, there were fewer than 80 members of the S&P 500 that were not paying dividends. This was closer to 100 just a few years ago, and some of the S&P components have been changed due to deletions or mergers.
24/7 Wall St. is now calling on these companies to finally start paying dividends. In order to qualify, each company had to have had a stable or at least a predictable earnings floor. For instance, companies losing money should not pay dividends. A company with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 100 should not be expected to have a huge dividend, as even making the mistake of paying 100% of the income out would generate a theoretical yield of only 1%.
Here are seven dividend sinners (or dividend misers) of 2016 that have a keen focus on consumer spending. A separate list of six technology stocks that need to be pay dividends has also been created. All these companies are S&P 500 stocks, and all have been profitable and are expected to remain so for years ahead. In most cases, their peers and rivals do actually pay dividends.
Bed Bath & Beyond
This retail giant of household products has been public for almost 25 years now. Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (NASDAQ: BBBY) had a very strong growth story for years, but that was before its recent spate of problems meeting earnings estimates or keeping guidance up. The company has turned to stock buybacks to boost earnings per share (EPS) and shrink its float, but it gets to keep buying back stock at lower and lower share prices due to those disappointing headwinds.
Bed Bath & Beyond shares peaked at roughly $80 but have dipped back to under $50 at the start of 2016. Analysts have all thrown in the towel and revenue growth has all but stalled. Still, with $5.00 or more in EPS power and only $1.5 billion in long-term debt, this retail giant needs to start paying a dividend now that its growth prospects seem to have peaked.
Bed Bath & Beyond shares were recently trading at $44.07, with a consensus analyst price target of $52.79 and a 52-week trading range of $41.71 to $79.36.
CarMax
Having enjoyed substantial growth from car sales during the post-recession period, CarMax Inc. (NYSE: KMX) still has growth expectations ahead. The problem is that investors no longer want to pay up for this auto dealer. as seen by its share price — falling from about $75 in 2015 to $45 in January of 2016. For a car-related company, CarMax is still not a cheap stock after its sell-off, at about 15 times current year earnings
At least some market pundits expect that the great auto recovery in America may have peaked in 2015 or is close to a peak now. CarMax can still increase its dealership count, and it is buying back stock. It is just time to get with the trend of auto-related companies paying good dividends. The company had almost $9.7 billion in cash and long-term investments at the end of 2015, but it also had $10.3 billion in long-term bank/debt borrowings. AutoNation, CarMax’s public rival, also pays no dividend, but CarMax has a market cap that is about 75% larger.
Shares of CarMax were last seen trading at $45.83, within a 52-week trading range of $41.88 to $75.40. The stock has a consensus price target of $64.06.
Dollar Tree
Dollar Tree Inc. (NASDAQ: DLTR) is finding its turn to be called a dividend miser, particularly now that it has acquired Family Dollar. In the recent past, 24/7 Wall St. called upon rival Dollar General to start paying a dividend, and it decided to not be a dividend miser. The problem with expecting a Dollar Tree dividend is that it may be a year or more before it can, now that it has become a leverage company after taking on so much buyout debt. Its long-term debt grew to almost $8.3 billion.
The long and short of the matter is that Dollar Tree may have to grow its cash first and then use its cash flow to pay down debt before it can send money out for dividends to its common shareholders. All things being equal, Dollar Tree could at least telegraph to investors that it plans to pay dividends.
Dollar Tree shares were recently trading at $77.69. The consensus price target is $83.91, and the 52-week range is $60.31 to $84.22.
Fossil
Shares of Fossil Group Inc. (NASDAQ: FOSL) have been shelled over the past year, falling from over $100 earlier in 2015 to almost $30 in the first month of 2016. It may not be the Apple Watch alone hurting Fossil’s sales, but its own smartwatch sales are not matching the pressure elsewhere, as sales are expected to be lower for 2015 and 2016. That old $7.02 in 2014 EPS is now history, with estimates at $4.39 for 2015 and $3.51 for 2016. It seems that Fossil’s business is under pressure even outside of watches, so a dividend here might signal to the investing community that the company will be around and viable for the long haul.
Fossil’s shares were recently changing hands at $30.26, with a consensus analyst target of $42.85. The stock has a 52-week range of $28.26 to $103.13.
Monster Beverage
Last seen worth almost $29 billion in January of 2016, that isn’t even the best ever value for Monster Beverage Corp. (NASDAQ: MNST). The company now counts Coca-Cola as a stakeholder of almost 17% of the company. Monster is also close to having $3 billion in liquidity and may average more than $500 million in operating cash flow in the next few years as Coca-Cola dominates its distribution.
Monster Beverage shares have risen enough over the past decade that it can claim whatever it wants to thwart any outside pressure. Monster’s 2014 annual report suggests that the company does not anticipate paying cash dividends in the foreseeable future, but that was before getting all that cash, and Monster has repurchased its stock before.
Shares of Monster were trading at $138.84. The consensus price target is $164.60, and the 52-week range is $114.70 to $160.50.
United Continental
It may be one of the world’s top air carriers, but United Continental Holdings Inc. (NYSE: UAL) has decided not to make dividend payments like rivals Southwest, American and Delta. The company’s most recent hint is that it will consider paying a dividend, but it believes buying back stock is better for now.
United Continental is feeling some pressure from oil executives and related business men not traveling around the country (or world) on low oil prices, but even with close to a 25% projected drop in EPS, it is projected to earn $9.00 per share or so in 2016 and 2017. Airlines have to maintain real cash cushions to fund new jet and gate purchases, and they have to be able to insulate themselves from the next recession or the next airplane incident. Still, even paying out 10% of its operating income per share as a dividend could generate a 2% yield. As of the end of January, United Continental’s stock performance was handily more on the downside over the past year and since the end of 2015, at -36% and -18%, respectively.
United Continental shares were recently trading at $46.82, within a 52-week range of $42.17 to $73.80. The consensus target price is $76.36.
Urban Outfitters
With multiple units that sell clothing and other merchandise, Urban Outfitters Inc. (NASDAQ: URBN) has enjoyed massive growth for years. In many ways, Urban Outfitters did what Gap did in the 1990s, but that has since slowed into a more mature story. Now Gap has no significant growth, but it does have an impressive 3.9% dividend yield.
Urban Outfitters shares being close to $22 are less than half of their 52-week high, and it is valued at about 11 times next year’s earnings. It seems as though the massive growth trajectory of yesteryear’s Urban Outfitters is becoming one of value investing now. Private equity firms might love to own Urban Outfitters, if the stock gets much cheaper, but that is for a separate view than paid dividends. Urban Outfitters has bought back stock on and off for the past four years or so and managed to shrink its float by what may be 20%, while still accumulating cash on its balance sheet.
Shares of Urban Outfitters were recently at $22.08, with a consensus price target of $26.39. The stock has changed hands between $19.26 and $47.25 in the past year.
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