Investing
10 Great Stocks That Warren Buffett Should Have Never Sold
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Warren Buffett is considered by many people to be the best investor of the modern era. Getting to be one of the world’s richest men on paper may have something to do with that. This makes the inner workings of the Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A) investment portfolio more than just a little important. One common investor strategy is to peruse the Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway stock portfolio each quarter. Seeing each new position taken by Buffett or his portfolio managers has become a hobby and passion for the investing community. After all, the richest of the rich must know at least something.
What if it turns out that it is just as important, or perhaps even more important, to know when Berkshire Hathaway or a member of Buffett’s team decides to sell a stock? Again, being the richest of the rich means you must know something. Or does it?
24/7 Wall St. has tracked the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio changes every single quarter for 10 years, and one of the cofounders has tracked these quarterly changes since the mid-1990s. It turns out that tracking Buffett’s stock sales in public companies outside of Berkshire Hathaway may be more important than tracking when Team Buffett actually buys a stock. History has shown that Buffett’s stock picks tend to rise through time. That being said, many of the stocks that Buffett or his portfolio managers sell out of end up rallying massively in the years afterward.
It is important to not think that Buffett and his investing managers are losers by any means. Buffett and his team are frequently considered to be value investors, or at least high-quality investors who avoid troubled companies.
What has seemed uncanny is by how much some of the Buffett stocks, or those from his team, have risen through time after they were sold. Buffett’s newest portfolio managers are Todd Combs and Ted Weschler. They are proving to be much more nimble, with shorter time periods in which they are willing to hold stocks, compared to Buffett. They are also well respected by the investing community — after all, if the richest of the rich will trust you then maybe they know something too.
24/7 Wall St. has tracked many equity sales made by Buffett and by his investing team, and the history books might very well show that Buffett should have never allowed the stock sales to take place. Here are 10 stocks that Buffett should have never sold. Six of them are now Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) stocks, and four were included on the 24/7 Wall St. stocks to own for the decade.
Dollar General
The position in Dollar General Corp. (NYSE: DG) was one that one of the Buffett portfolio managers took on, rather than a position that Buffett himself would have taken. The stake was also after Dollar General came public again, after being owned by private equity, and the team at Berkshire Hathaway got the trend right that dollar stores were “reaching up” into the $5 and $10 spending and growing its base of products to even include real food. This dollar store reaching-up trend is here to stay, and they even rival Wal-Mart and other top retail destinations for millions of Americans.
The Dollar General position started out at 1.5 million shares but grew to almost 4.5 million. Team Buffett sold out of the position in 2012 after seeing large gains — but shares have risen from an average of less than $50 then to over $80 now. Despite making a profit, this is a position that could have grown and grown. Dollar General even started paying a dividend in 2015.
Exxon Mobil
The largest fully-integrated oil and gas company that can be invested in is Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM). Buffett has been in and out of the energy sector over the years, including in Exxon Mobil. His recent Phillips 66 investment and his stake in Suncor, as well as having the exposure to transporting oil in BNSF, prove that Buffett believes oil and gas will be relevant for decades. Buffett sold Exxon Mobil before the energy meltdown went into overdrive in 2015.
Exxon Mobil is actually the one company in oil and gas, or in any sector period, that is so big that Buffett could invest into it without ever having to worry about reaching maximum limits with regulators. Buffett’s stake was valued at almost $4 billion in early 2014 and, even at the lower prices of early 2016, its market value is over $360 billion.
General Dynamics
It is likely General Dynamics Corp. (NYSE: GD) was another position that was added on by Buffett’s team, rather than by Buffett himself, as a new position of almost 4 million shares in the third quarter of 2011. Shares averaged about $60 during that quarter, and they were sold in the second quarter of 2013 when shares averaged about $80. They are close to $140 in 2016, and with a consensus price target of almost $160. It still pays close to a 2.3% yield.
If we had to guess why General Dynamics was sold, maybe it was just so the team could lock in gains – or a manager close-out other than Buffett himself. Other than that, this was always a bit of a mystery sale. General Dynamics now has a market cap of $43 billion.
Home Depot
Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD) is another one of the companies that fit right into the Buffett wheelhouse, as did a stake in rival Lowe’s Companies Inc. (NYSE: LOW). Home Depot has a dominant market share, it grows dividends, it is well run again and it is tied to the beloved housing (building and improvement) arena, which Buffett likes. It is a wonder that Buffett did not just buy endlessly here as Home Depot’s market cap recently challenged $170 billion.
Intel
This is another stake that was likely taken by Buffett’s portfolio management team, but Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) is the one technology stock that Buffett could have taken a dominant role in for the control of processors rather than throwing money into the dark hole of IBM. It may be years before Intel is considered a great company without relying on personal computers (PCs), but its growth as an outsourced manufacturer in memory and its growth in integrated subsystems for the growing Internet of Things and connected systems will make the PC dominance argument fade through time.
While the PC market is under-appreciated and has diminished, Intel’s market share for PC processors remains at or well above 80%. Its market cap of $150 billion would have meant that Buffett could own close to $15 billion worth of stock before reaching a 10% hurdle counted by the SEC for reporting purposes. And yes, Intel’s $150 billion in market is larger than IBM’s $142 billion or so.
Johnson & Johnson
Over the past decade, Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) has been a significant driver of earnings and dividends growth. Revenues in 2005 were $50 billion, and that was $74 billion in 2014 before a small pullback in 2015. The current dividend is $3.00, versus $1.32 in 2005, following in a 50-year or more trend of dividend hikes. The company has ridden through product issues and quality control only to come out ahead.
Buffett loves companies with solid market share that have an assured position in consumer goods or medical products, and Johnson & Johnson has been a serious winner on that front. Some may argue that Buffett’s stake of 327,100 shares means he still holds it, but Buffett once had 62 million shares at the peak, and that stake was reduced over multiple reporting periods.
Moody’s
Moody’s Corp. (NYSE: MCO) is one of those companies that went from being highly respected before the recession to the scourge of humanity for missing the writing on the wall that led to the credit meltdown in 2007 and 2008. Well, let’s just say that Moody’s survived and then some.
Revenues in 2006 totaled $2.04 billion, up 18% from 2005. Revenues troughed at $1.75 billion in 2008 and grew marginally again in 2009 to $1.79 billion. Operating income and earnings per share tanked during the dark days, but by 2015 the revenue was almost $3.5 billion with almost $1.5 billion in operating income. Buffett had to take some small hazing during and after the recession for his praise of the “charge for ratings” in the prior decade, but he was proven right after its model was changed and after the credit ratings survived.
Nike
In mid-2010 (before its split), Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE) was a stake of over 7.6 million shares, but Buffett or his team decided to begin selling before the end of 2010. It might seem fair to ask what on earth they were thinking, particularly since Nike has even become a DJIA component since that time.
Republic Services
Buffett piggybacked his stake in Republic Services Inc. (NYSE: RSG) with his buddy, Bill Gates. Republic has a highly defensive business model with waste management efforts, and the reality is that the business of garbage collection and disposal is something that society may not like on the surface but nonetheless has to live with. If you have ever been on the streets of New York City at 4:30 a.m., imagine what the garbage piles would look like (let alone smell like) if that were to pile up for a month.
Buffett sold during the third quarter of 2010 when shares averaged about $28. Its latest price was over $45, and the 2010 annualized dividend of $0.80 per share has grown to $1.20 now. This is a business that still matches the Buffett mentality. Perhaps Buffett just did not want too many investments and trades tied up with Gates, or maybe he did not want the dirty and environmental association of garbage.
Disney
Over the years, Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS) has become a seriously great media and entertainment giant. It has also become a stake sale twice under Buffett and his team for what might have otherwise become billions worth of profits. Buffett first took a 5% stake for a mere $4 million back in the 1960s, but he took roughly a 50% profit shortly after buying the stock. Buffett then again became a Disney shareholder by getting 21 million shares or so when Disney acquired Cap-Cities/ABC for a $300 million or so value of his stake then. Buffett then sold those shares.
There are of course no assurances that Buffett would have known that Disney would go on to acquire Pixar, Marvel and Star Wars, nor that Disney would see such large international growth. Disney’s dividend is literally seven times what it was in 2000. This is a company in which Buffett could have added and added shares, as now its market cap is close to $170 billion.
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