So, the bull market is now seven and a half years old, valuations are high, the Federal Reserve wants to raise interest rates and there are uncertainties about the election and growth ahead. Most investors have still been lining up to buy stocks on pullbacks. One day, maybe there will be another serious market correction, or even a bear market.
Investors frequently hear analysts on Wall Street talk about why certain stocks are heading higher. They hear “buy this stock” a lot, but they are often confused and on their own when it comes time to sell a stock. The worst-kept secret on Wall Street is that the analysts have many more Buy ratings than Sell ratings.
24/7 Wall St. reviews dozens of analyst research reports each morning. The goal is to find new investing and trading ideas for our readers.
Some analyst research reports cover stocks to buy, and some reports feature stocks to sell or to avoid. It is this latter category that can freak investors out.
It is not infrequent that investors worry that maybe they are holding on too long or are being too optimistic if they hear the word “Sell” from an analyst report. After all, the analysts are all supposedly smart and probably know more about a stock, sector and the market than the Average Joe. Sometimes that is true and sometimes it is not. What if you are already in a loss on the stock? Could stocks really go lower?
These eight large, well-known stocks received Sell, Underperform or Underweight ratings in the week of October 7, 2016. Just remember one thing: analysts are not omniscient. They are frequently wrong, even if you might think they are supposed to be smarter than others.
American Express Co. (NYSE: AXP) was downgraded to Reduce from Neutral at Nomura, the equivalent of a Sell rating. The firm lowered its price target to $56 from $62 in the call, versus a $64.36 prior closing price, but Amex shares closed out the week at $61.76. On top of a market share loss, Nomura worries about softer than expected revenues and higher than expected expenses.
American Express has a 52-week trading range of $50.27 to $77.82 and a consensus analyst price target of $67.18. This October 6 call was covered in full detail.
Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. (NYSE: CLF) was reinstated as Underperform at Credit Suisse on October 7. The firm pointed out that there has been a sharper than anticipated decline in hot-rolled sheet pricing that would pressure earnings and margins, and it now has a mere $2 price target.
The shares closed down 1.7% at $5.58 on Thursday ahead of the call and were indicated down 1.4% at $5.50 on Friday morning, but the still managed to close up two cents at $5.60 despite the equivalent of a Sell rating. The 52-week range is $1.20 to $8.45, and the consensus analyst target is $6.50.
National Oilwell Varco Inc. (NYSE: NOV) was downgraded to Sell from Neutral with a $30 price target at Citigroup on October 3. The prior closing price was $36.74, but by the end of the week shares traded at $36.84.
The 52-week range is $25.74 to $42.62. The consensus price target is $31.79.
Tyson Foods Inc. (NYSE: TSN) was downgraded to Sell from Hold at Pivotal Research on October 7, but the price target was slashed to $40 from $100 in the call. This is after the analysts view on price-fixing allegations taking shares potentially much lower.
Investors took note as the closing price ahead of the call was $74.38, but shares closed down 8.9% at $67.75 on Friday. The 52-week range is $42.89 to $77.05, and the consensus price target is $82.20.
Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) may have some more woes to come from its fake account scandal, at least that is the take of Raymond James. The firm downgraded Wells Fargo to Underperform from Market Perform after Illinois followed California with a financial relationship suspension.
The stock closed down 1% at $43.83 ahead of the call, but investors might want to take note that it recovered handily and closed out the week at $45.33. It has a 52-week range of $43.56 to $56.34 and a consensus price target of $50.71.
Other key analyst Sell ratings and their equivalents from the week of October 7, 2016 we shown as follows:
Citrix Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CTXS) was downgraded to Sell from Neutral with an $81 price target at UBS. The prior closing price was $85.22, but shares ended the week at $84.30. UBS is worried that the GoTo business exit is leaving a growth vacuum, and this stock was up almost 40% since February. Their report said:
We think the next leg of the story will prove more difficult, as investor attention shifts back towards the core workspace services business. In this report we take a detailed look at revenue growth and margin trajectory going forward as well as what the core business looks like without GoTo. We move our rating to Sell given all of the moving pieces, and continue to favor VMware at lower multiples.
Rowan Companies PLC (NYSE: RDC) was downgraded to Sell from Hold and the price target was cut to $11 from $16 at Societe Generale on October 3.
This compares with a prior $15.16 close, but shares closed out the week at $14.99. The consensus price target is $15.13, and the 52-week range is $10.67 to $21.83.
Teradata Corp. (NYSE: TDC) was downgraded to Sell from Neutral and the price target was cut to $27 from $29 at UBS. The October 3 downgrade followed a prior closing price of $31, and shares closed out the week at $30.29. UBS said:
Teradata’s upcoming analyst day (the first of its kind in as many years) will offer visibility on the pace and scope of Teradata’s impending transition to a more software-centric, Cloudfirst business model. This will provide a much-needed reset to financial model expectations, but we see downside risk to estimates as we believe current consensus forecasts underestimate the duration and magnitude of the impact. As such, UBS is now below Street. This combined with the YTD outperformance (+17% vs. 6% NASDAQ) Teradata has witnessed, we downgrade shares from Neutral to Sell.
The 52-week range is $21.98 to $33.09, and the consensus price target is $28.59.
You can follow @Jonogg on Twitter if you want the daily analyst calls and research updates directly on your Twitter feed.
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