Investing

Beyond DJIA 20,000: What Could Drive the Dow to 22,000 in 2017

Jon C. Ogg

Published: December 29, 2016 10:30 am

Last Updated: January 12, 2020 4:19 pm

With 2016 winding down, some investors are looking backward to see what worked and what did not. With a 14% rally in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) this year, the more important issue to consider is what investors should expect for 2017. The Dow has been within 1% of 20,000 for days now. What if the Dow actually manages to hit 22,000 in 2017? It may be far more possible than most investors might imagine.

24/7 Wall St. has evaluated many of the preliminary views for key companies and industries ahead. Regardless of which candidate voters favored, it is now very hard to find investors who do not view the markets more favorably and more pro-business with higher growth environment. After all, the 8.5% rally in the Dow since the November 8 election is almost unprecedented and is too large to merely assign as a coincidence or as a relief rally.

Investors have bought every major market pullback for about six years now, and the bull market is rapidly approaching eight years old. Investors are looking for value and overlooked growth, and they are even looking for upside in popular names that simply have more upside to run. It turns out that many of the 30 DJIA stocks have a consensus analyst price target from Thomson Reuters that calls for substantial upside in the next 12 months. And then investors get to add in the dividends as well.

The pro-growth strategies laid out ahead have been a boom for infrastructure companies tied to all sides of major engineering projects and those that process or mine materials. Then there is a lower-regulation and higher-rate environment driving financials and cyclicals. And of course those companies ready to repatriate over $1 trillion in overseas cash are expected to face a much more reasonable corporate tax environment versus other countries.

Before just assuming that Dow 20,000 will come and turn into 22,000, it is important to reflect on some real issues. Rallies of this magnitude are rarely, if ever, followed by a straight line higher. Many investors put off traditional year-end profit taking due to expecting lower capital gain taxes in 2017. Many Dow and S&P stocks are now also valued above or very close to their consensus analyst target prices. Many of the Trump-beneficiary stocks also have rallied to the point that much or all of the good news for 2017 already may have taken place. What if the Federal Reserve raises rates more than expected? Will the political infighting of the past decade continue ahead? Also, and sadly, analysts can simply end up being wrong. And we almost never hear about geopolitical risks right now. All of these are risks to the rally not facing a pullback.

24/7 Wall St. showed a preliminary bull-bear case for the Dow in 2016 at 19,700. The Dow was valued just above 19,200 on December 6 when we first looked at a Dow 20,000+, and the Dow has now hit a high of 19,987 as of December 29.

Here are some of the key driving forces that could help the Dow Jones Industrial Average get closer to 22,000 in 2017.

Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) already has risen to above $240.00 in 2016, and the shares are up 32% just since November 8. Its stock price has passed its $229.00 consensus analyst price target. One reason the Dow has outperformed the S&P 500 since the election is that the Dow’s price-weighted valuation (rather than market cap-weighted for other indexes) is dominated by Goldman Sachs’ 8.3% index weighting, almost three-times the average Dow stock’s weighting. It has accounted for close to one-fourth of the Dow’s post-election gain.

Some analysts see even more bright skies ahead for Goldman Sachs. Outside of the company landing two top positions in the upcoming administration, HSBC is calling for a $250 target and Deutsche Bank now has a $255 target. If lower regulation allows for more trading, Goldman Sachs’ profit history could dictate even better earnings and far more upside than its paltry 1% dividend yield.

Apple

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) was last seen trading at close to $117, and its 52-week high is just $118.69. Apple’s consensus price target is now up at $132.00 and has climbed slowly higher for months. Apple’s 2% dividend yield could rise handily if the company repatriates its massive overseas cash sum of close to $200 billion, and Apple is valued at only about 11 times next year’s earnings estimate.

Credit Suisse just on December 6 reiterated its Outperform rating and $150 price target for Apple with hopes of iPhone 8 super-cycle. Recent reports of the big product being an iPhone 7s in 2017 could jeopardize that, but Apple has the largest cash trove of all companies (by far) and it buys back large amounts of stock. Apple’s 52-week trading range is $89.47 to $118.69, its market cap is $622 billion and its weighting of 4.03% in the Dow is ranked just 10th out of 30 index components.

Cisco Systems

Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) has recovered to $30.50, and its consensus analyst target is $33.11. It also has close to a 3.4% dividend yield, and the company is a monster when it comes to buying back shares. Cisco shares are valued at 12 times forward earnings. They are still about 10% shy of its 2007 high, and the share price is still less than half of its all-time back in the tech bubble peak in 2000.

The 52-week range here is $22.46 to $31.95, and the market cap is $153 billion. RBC just named it among the top tech picks for 2017 and the firm is calling for a $35 share price for Cisco.

Coca-Cola

Coca-Cola Co. (NYSE: KO) has been a sleeper, but what if 2017 is the breakout year for the sugar-water giant? Its $41.40 share price is well shy of the consensus price target of $45.75, and the 3.4% dividend yield would imply north of 15% upside. The stock is valued at 20 times expected earnings per share.

Despite being more dependent on sugary beverages than rival Pepsi, the reality is that Coca-Cola has been diversifying away from its name brand for years. The stock has been a sleeper for so long, and it mostly has been in a $39 to $44 trading band for the past three years. Coca-Cola still has global expansion opportunities and cost containment opportunities ahead, and it is possible that value investors will begin to focus on what may be a defensive stock with limited downside. Coca-Cola also has raised its dividend for more than 50 years and has a market value of close to $180 billion.

Home Depot

Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD) has recovered to $135 in December, and its consensus price target now has risen to $147. That and its 2% dividend yield would generate upside of over 10%. The stock is valued at 18 times expected earnings for next year.

Home Depot ran into some issues after peaking in the summer. But weak consumer and a slowing in housing have now been replaced by a euphoric consumer and expectations for a strong housing market to continue. It seems hard for Home Depot to not participate in this retail and housing upside. Home Depot has a 52-week range of $109.62 to $139.00 and a market cap of $164 billion.

Intel

Shares of Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) were last seen trading at $36.50, and its consensus price target is now almost $40. Intel’s dividend yield is also close to 3%, and it is valued at less than 13 times 2017 earnings.

What has occurred is that the personal computer market finally has come back due to gaming, virtual reality, artificial intelligence and machine learning. Intel also has expanded well beyond desktops; it is deep in servers and the Internet of Things, and it is even a growing partner for many chip companies now. Intel’s market cap is $174 billion, and it has traded in 52-week range of $27.68 to $38.36.

Nike

Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE) has been the worst stock of 2016, down 17% so far this year. With shares last seen at $51, the consensus price target is $62, and that implies 20% upside — with lots of room for its mere 1% dividend yield to grow, on top of share buybacks.

Nike is the leader in the athletic apparel market and there have been concerns that “athleisure” has peaked. Brands like Under Armour, Adidas and Reebok also want their piece of Nike’s market. What is amazing about all the negativity here is that analysts expect Nike to grow sales to $41 billion in 2019 from about $32 billion in 2016, with earnings growth expected to be about 40% over the same period. What if everyone has been too negative here? Nike’s 52-week trading range is $49.01 to $68.19, and it has a market cap of $85 billion.

Pfizer

Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) was trading at $32.35, and its consensus price target of $37.65 implies upside of 16.4%, even before considering a dividend yield of almost 4%. Pfizer shares are valued at only about 12 times forward earnings. 2016 has been a dud for Pfizer, with a gain of just 4%, versus a 16% gain so far for rival Merck.

Pfizer had been torn in long-term efforts, like whether to move or acquire overseas, deciding if the restructuring would lead to a break-up, and deciding whether to sell some assets. There was also the overhang of political pricing pressure on drug prices. While cheap underperforming stocks are that way for a reason, what if Pfizer has become too cheap versus Merck, or what if it releases some unexpected news or makes a great acquisition in 2017? Pfizer’s market cap is $196 billion, and its shares have a 52-week range of $28.25 to $37.39.

Procter & Gamble

Last seen trading near $84, Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) has a consensus analyst upside of $91.00. This is still almost 10% in implied upside, without even considering its 3% dividend yield. The consumer products giant has restructured and pared down its brands, but it is still valued at 19.5 times forward earnings.

Procter & Gamble has raised its dividend for over 50 consecutive years now. One issue is that it has faced is harder overseas sales comps due to that strong dollar, and it seems hard to imagine that the company can shrink its brands back into a growth company. Still, this is a company that remains quite friendly to shareholders. Perhaps its endless list of brands should just speak for itself.

The 52-week range is $74.46 to $90.33, and its market cap is $225 billion, making the company larger than its top three consumer products peers in the United States combined.

UnitedHealth

UnitedHealth Group Inc. (NYSE: UNH) was trading at $161.50, and the consensus price target has lifted to $179 now. This implies upside of 11%, before considering its 1.5% dividend yield. What is amazing about the expected upside is that UnitedHealth shares have risen almost 40% in 2016, and 13% of those gains have come since the election. The largest insurer of them all is valued at about 17 times expected 2017 earnings.

Being a health insurer under Obamacare turned out to be fine for UnitedHealth, and now it seems that analysts have little fears around a Trump effort to replace Obamacare. It has vacated most exchange operations and is focused on the group market and other value-added opportunities. How the health insurer ultimately will be treated under a regime in which Obamacare gets dismantled remains to be seen. Still, even the lowest analyst price target would imply a 5% drop and the highest analyst target is $200.

UnitedHealth has a market cap of over $150 billion, and its weighting is 5.5% of the Dow’s 30 components.

Visa

Visa Inc. (NYSE: V) was last seen at $78.50, and it has a consensus price target of $94.20, for an implied upside of 20%. Its dividend yield of less than 1% could have exponential upside, as it is less than one-fourth of earnings. Visa could be a huge winner from repatriation efforts, and a strong consumer spending environment should allow it to ring the register as it wins each time there are credit card transactions. Visa shares are well off of prior highs, but it is still valued at almost 20 times forward earnings.

Many investors think of Visa a financial powerhouse now that it is a newer Dow component, but Visa is actually a platform provider with massive room to boost its weak dividend. Still, every company under the sun seems to want a piece of payment technology, and that has weighed at least some on Visa’s dominance. If analysts are right, then Visa shares have pulled back too far from its 52-week high of $83.96. Its shares are actually down since the election, and they have risen less than 2% so far in 2016.

Again, there are many circumstances that have to occur for this recent enthusiasm to last. It would only be prudent to expect that some of the typical year-end profit-taking being delayed into next year might bring some selling early on. And it is possible that the strength of the post-election rally has already borrowed from the 2017 upside.

Many analysts are certain to update and issue more formal 2017 targets after the start of the year. The formal bull-bear case for 2017 has to be followed by policy and structural changes in Washington, D.C., and a return to more rapid economic growth. The Dow has risen about 8.5% since November 8 alone, and the year-to-date gains in 2016 have been just over 14%.

For a relative value between these Dow stocks and the S&P 500 Index, the S&P 500 was last seen valued at 17.3 times expected 2017 earnings per share and at 18.7 times its 2016 estimated earnings per share.