Investing

Jefferies Adds Big Dividend-Paying Leader to Franchise Picks List

Lee Jackson

Published: February 3, 2017 8:25 am

Last Updated: January 12, 2020 3:12 pm

As we head deeper into February, many of the top firms we cover here at 24/7 Wall St. are tweaking their high-conviction stock lists for 2017, and many are trying to take into account macro changes that could make a difference this year. Those changes could include higher inflation, a stronger dollar and rising interest rates. They are also trying to factor in positives like lower nominal tax rates and less of the ever burdensome regulations that some feel have stifled business.

In a new research report, Jefferies has made a third big change for 2017. The analysts add a leading energy stock, Marathon Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: MPC), to the Franchise Picks list.

This top refiner has been on a roll since bottoming last February, but its shares still trade well below highs posted in late 2015. Marathon Petroleum has a diversified business that operates through Refining & Marketing, Speedway and Pipeline Transportation segments. The company owns and operates seven refineries in the Gulf Coast and Midwest regions of the United States, which refine crude oil and other feedstocks, and it distributes refined products through barges, terminals and trucks, as well as purchases ethanol and refined products for resale.

While acknowledging that the company’s margins may have compressed some, many on Wall Street also expect continued strong revenue contribution from the assets acquired from Hess, and the company has converted almost all the Hess stations to Marathon’s Speedway brand.

The company announced in January plans to significantly accelerate its drop-down of assets with an estimated $1.4 billion of master limited partnership eligible annual earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) to MPLX. This is expected to be completed as soon as possible, subject to requisite approvals and regulatory clearances, including tax.

The analyst noted in the report:

Following the dropdown and IDR roll-in, management notes the midstream component of the company is now worth ~$40-$50/sh (~94% of current value), implying just $3 per share for its’ Speedway and Refining business today. If the shares continue to trade at current levels (despite the positive impact a Speedway separation may have on the company’s credit & cash-flow stability), it would be difficult for management to justify a ‘no-separation’ scenario.

Marathon Petroleum investors are paid a solid 3% dividend. The Jefferies price target for the stock is $60, and the Wall Street consensus price objective is $61.97. The stock closed Thursday at $47.90.

We also screened the Franchise Picks portfolio for the top dividend-paying stocks and found three that look like outstanding stocks to pick up now.

AbbVie

This is one of the top global pharmaceutical stocks picks across Wall Street. AbbVie Inc. (NYSE: ABBV) is a global, research-based biopharmaceutical company formed in 2013 following separation from Abbott Laboratories. The company’s mission is to use its expertise, dedicated people and unique approach to innovation to develop and market advanced therapies that address some of the world’s most complex and serious diseases. AbbVie employs more than 26,000 people worldwide and markets medicines in more than 170 countries.

One of the biggest concerns with AbbVie is what eventually might happen with anti-inflammatory therapy Humira, which generated $14 billion in sales in fiscal 2015. That was the most any drug has recorded during a single year and represents a gigantic part of the company’s overall earnings. The problem is that biosimilars and generics are itching to enter the market with Amgen leading the charge, and some Wall Street analysts project that AbbVie may have a difficult time stopping that trend.

Last May, the patent board instituted Coherus BioSciences’ Inter Partes Review against the Humira ‘135 patent. The outcome of the review is expected next year. While most analysts remain positive on Humira duration, the expected litigation uncertainty could continue to create an overhang on the stock, which does give investors chances to pick up shares lower.

AbbVie investors receive a 4.2% dividend. The $90 Jefferies price target is well above the consensus target of $70.11. Shares closed Thursday at $60.89.

Ally Financial

This is the old financing arm of GM that was known before the great recession as GMAC. Ally Financial Inc. (NYSE: ALLY) has been rebuilt into a stronger and more solvent Internet-focused bank with no brick-and-mortar locations. Its customers do their banking solely through the bank’s website, its mobile application and automatic teller machines.

Jefferies feels that in comparison to peers, though few are actually structured like Ally, the stock is very cheap. With shares trading at a low 9.35 times estimated 2017 earnings, and at a minuscule one times book value, the analysts feel that there is room to run. In fact, their work indicates the stock should trade at more like 1.25 times book value.

With the capital structure optimized and management having diversified the origination’s platform ahead of expectations, the stock has tremendous value at current levels.

Shareholders are paid a 1.5% dividend. Jefferies has a $27 price target for the stock. The consensus target is $25.44. Shares closed on Thursday at $22.14.

Boeing

This top aerospace industrial has been on a roll since the election and has broken out to all-time highs. Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA), together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, manufactures, sells, services and supports commercial jetliners, military aircraft, satellites, missile defense, human space flight and launch systems and services worldwide.

The company operates in five segments: Commercial Airplanes, Boeing Military Aircraft, Network & Space Systems, Global Services & Support, and Boeing Capital.

Recent reports indicate that the U.S. Navy plans to divest its older model F/A-18 Hornet fighter jets in coming years and hopes to buy dozens of F/A-18E/F Super Hornets to deal with a shortfall of strike fighters aboard its carriers. If implemented, the plan would provide dozens of new orders for Boeing and keep its St. Louis production line running for several more years.

The company recently reported quarterly results that topped analysts’ estimates. And the company’s outlook for 2017 was in line with analysts’ expectations.

Boeing investors are paid a very solid 3.5% dividend. The Jefferies price objective is $185, the consensus target price is $171.70. Shares closed Thursday at $162.26 apiece.

A top new addition to the Franchise Picks list portfolio and three additional dividend stocks that Jefferies views as its top high-conviction picks. All these companies make good sense for aggressive long-term stock portfolios.