Investing

11 Great American Companies That Have Totally Lost Control of Their Narrative

Jon C. Ogg

Published: July 25, 2017 10:50 am

Last Updated: January 12, 2020 9:49 am

Many great American companies have risen to become behemoths over the decades. Many of those great names also have fallen from grace. Sometimes after a company falls from grace, it almost doesn’t even matter to investors what a company says or does.

Investors love good stories. They love earnings. They love growth. They love dividends. And if those qualities aren’t quite there, investors at least want some stability. Sometimes companies become unstable enough that no one cares about their story any more. Even their actions become ignored after things get this bad. There is a common term used in the media for this: losing the narrative.

When companies lose their narrative they almost begin to be heard about, and almost never in a positive light, by everyone except for the company’s management. This is also when a company becomes a short seller’s dream.

Some companies that have lost their own narrative also become seen as value stocks. If a company’s management has lost its own narrative, there is almost no way that it can be valued well by the markets. Sadly, some companies never are able to shed that “value” proposition and they become value traps that sucker new investors into their shares and never generate any gains. And sometimes they even implode.

In July of 2017, the bull market was already well over eight years old. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500 and even the Nasdaq had each hit all-time highs. Still, many companies that have lost their narrative are posting weak earnings or their stocks are trading close to 52-week lows. Some of these are trading at multiyear lows, with shares down 60% or more from just a few years ago.

Some investors believe that some companies just cannot fix their woes due to tectonic shifts in their industries or because the companies just have too many problems. Sometimes it takes activist investors to press companies to save the day, but even the best activists can fall short.

24/7 Wall St. has featured 11 great American companies that have all lost their own narrative. They were great before, but not now — and that may be the case for months, years or perhaps forever. Bearish analysts, short sellers, media pundits and even competitors can all easily dismiss these companies, and the companies being targeted just cannot defend themselves.

Great old American companies such as Alcoa, Sears, Xerox, J.C. Penney and a slew of others have all been known stories of contraction and problems for years. These are well-known companies you see every day or every week, and they all have valuations that are still in the billions of dollars.

AutoZone: Even auto parts can’t escape Amazonian threats

AutoZone Inc. (NYSE: AZO) is not currently the largest retailer and distributer of auto replacement parts and accessories by market cap, but it is by measuring its annual sales of $10.6 billion in 2016. There has been endless growth here over the years, almost without a care of whether consumers were buying new cars or hanging on to their older ones during hard times. Now that Amazon is in the space, along with more online competition, the pressure has mounted. Wages also have been rising in many of the auto parts seller regions. More competitive pricing is great for consumers but it compresses margins.

The trading pattern seen in 2017 has wrecked what was one of the greatest non-technology growth stock stories of the past decade. Oddly enough, most investors have even discounted that sales and earnings are expected to keep growing at this company.

Shares of AutoZone were last seen trading at $504.00, with a consensus analyst price target of $661.41 and a 52-week range of $491.13 to $818.00. Over the past 52 weeks, the stock is down 35.5%. The company has a market cap of nearly $14 billion.

Bed Bath & Beyond: Sorry, to where?

Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (NASDAQ: BBBY) sells all sorts of home goods for bedrooms, bathrooms, kitchens, utility rooms and just about any other room in your house. The retailer used to be able to do no wrong, and the death of Linens-n-Things was a huge win for the company. Then came Amazon and other online competition, and additional targeting by big-box retailers nibbling at its heels. Bed Bath & Beyond has actually managed to keep growing its sales ($12.2 billion in fiscal 2017), but its operating income keeps declining as selling general and administrative costs keep rising.

Bed Bath & Beyond peaked at about $80 a share at the end of 2013 and was above $75 in early 2015, but that was then. Now no investors appear willing to endorse its shrinking earnings, and the notion that this stock trades at seven times expected earnings seems to fall on deaf ears.

Shares of Bed Bath & Beyond were recently trading at $28.50, with a 52-week range of $28.13 to $48.83 and a consensus price target of $32.74. Over the past 52 weeks, the stock is down 33.7%. The market cap is $4 billion.

Chipotle Mexican Grill: Where Montezuma rules!

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (NYSE: CMG) was the prize of the millennials in fast food and casual dining. After being spun off by McDonald’s more than a decade ago, the company grew and grew. Now it has about 2,200 stores, and in 2015 a wave of illnesses put a hurt on Chipotle’s brand. Same-store sales growth turned into contractions. And then when the company seemed poised to rekindle its growth, news broke in July that more illnesses struck — and a video of rodents inside another store did not help its image.

Credit Suisse recently suggested that Chipotle may have to curb its store growth and is likely to see declining same-store sales, and it warned that the company would be unlikely to raise prices as expected (hurting margins). The firm also handily lowered its earnings estimates for 2017 and 2018.

Chipotle shares were trading at $346.10. The 52-week trading range is $336.52 to $499.00, and the consensus price target is $422.12. Over the past year, the stock is down 17.4%. The company has a market cap of $9.7 billion.

Ford: How can you overcome peak auto?

Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) did great through the recession and the company succeeded under chief Alan Mulally, but his turnaround tenure was going to be a hard act to follow. Successor Mark Fields was fired in May of 2017 and was replaced by James Hackett as CEO.

It turns out that Wall Street is still (perhaps overly) enthralled with Elon Musk of Tesla, and rival General Motors has been paring down its geographies. One serious issue for Ford is that 2016 and 2017 may represent peak auto, with car loan terms getting ever longer, and a slew of cars coming off lease in the next 24 months may pressure new and used car prices alike.

Sometimes being valued at less than eight times earnings and having a 5% dividend just makes people yawn.

Ford shares were last seen at $11.30, with a consensus price target of $12.67 and a 52-week range of $10.67 to $13.99. The stock is down 16.8% of the past year. The market cap is $45 billion.

GE: Is it now General Eclectic?

General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) is on the verge of a new future. Or is it? Naming a new CEO after Jeff Immelt and then transitioning the chairman role hasn’t seemed to matter, and GE’s earnings reports still have enough parts that they are confusing. It seems that the market doesn’t want to hear GE’s strategy after expensive energy acquisitions, selling its appliances unit, selling off and spinning off financial assets, and selling its media unit. Has GE sold all of its noncore businesses too cheaply and been acquiring assets at prices that were too high?

GE’s balance sheet is so complex that most analysts and investors have a hard time explaining it. GE will now not deliver its new formal 2018 earnings guidance until November of 2017, but investors already assume that GE’s old $2.00 in earnings per share target is well out of reach for now. GE’s new CEO also will outline what the portfolio of GE companies will look like in November.

It is very possible that John Flannery, Jeff Immelt’s successor, won’t be able to change GE’s narrative and message while Immelt is still on GE’s board of directors. Even if GE were to trim 20% off its 2018 earnings guidance, it would still be valued at just 15 times expected earnings. Is General Electric on the verge of becoming General Eclectic?

Shares of GE recently traded at $25.40, with a 52-week range of $25.26 to $32.38 and a consensus price target of $30.08. Over the past 52 weeks, the stock is down 20.5%. The market cap is about $221 billion.

Harley-Davidson: No hog heaven here

Harley-Davidson Inc. (NYSE: HOG) is having a hard time finding new motorcycle buyers. Even if you consider the growth of the rival Indian motorcycle and the niche markets of other products coming from the three-wheeled market, Harley-Davidson is having a hard time. Most people don’t think of motorcycle gangs being a growth industry, and even the packs of lawyers and doctors buying Harleys that replaced the old rough and tough guys has been hard to see growth from, as Harley-Davidson’s sales have fallen in 2015 and 2016 and are expected to fall in 2017.

It is undeniable that this is a great American brand. It’s also undeniable that this company has failed in rekindling interest. Besides all that, who alive has tried texting or Facebooking while driving a motorcycle?

Harley-Davidson shares were trading at $48.70, in a 52-week range of $46.00 to $63.40. The consensus price target is $52.25. Over the past year, the stock is down 3.8%. The market cap is $8.4 billion.

IBM: When strategic initiatives just cannot catch up fast enough

International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE: IBM) has faltered under the leadership of Ginni Rometty to the point that IBM has had to jettison its prior long-term earnings guidance for $20 per share. IBM has bought back massive amounts of stock, but now even the great Warren Buffett has sold some of his large stake, and that was viewed as an “I surrender” by the world’s greatest investor.

IBM’s core business of IT-consulting and on-site consultants has a long-term chart that looks quite similar to smoking trends in America over the past two decades. Strategic initiatives in the cloud, artificial intelligence, machine learning and so on just cannot grow fast enough, and IBM’s revenues have been lower for more than five years now. IBM does not even try to brag about its massive backlog of services revenues any longer.

Credit Suisse sees IBM falling to $110, but a less negative target from Jefferies is targeting a $125 stock price.

Shares of IBM were last seen at $146.85, with a consensus price target of $159.35 and a 52-week range of $145.80 to $182.79. Over the past year, the stock is down 8.3%. The market cap is $137 billion.

Macy’s: Department store woes meet the mall woes

Macy’s Inc. (NYSE: M) has suffered the wrath of Amazon and the omnichannel for a while now. Some shoppers may feel that the stores are outdated, and others just want the convenience that online shopping brings. Now Macy’s is two years deep into revenue declines, and analysts expect that to continue for the next three years, even after the news that Macy’s was bringing in a new CEO to replace Terry Lundgren.

Macy’s may not be alone in the painful changes in the retail department stores, and it might not be its fault that mall traffic is declining. Still, this stock has been crushed and no one is willing to pay up for what may be just seven times earnings. It also has proven more than difficult to unlock the value of its dirt. Whatever Macy’s tries to communicate seems to be ignored.

Shares of Macy’s traded at $23.20, in a 52-week range of $20.85 to $45.41 and with a consensus price target of $25.83. The stock is down 34.2% in the past year. The market cap is $6.9 billion.

Mattel: Too many toys in Toy Land?

Mattel Inc. (NASDAQ: MAT) is a great American toy company, and its brands of Barbie, American Girl, Hot Wheels, Fischer Price are well known. Having toys from movie franchises, superheroes, Disney, WWE and a slew of other sources just hasn’t translated to growth. In fact, revenues have been in decline since the $6.5 billion mark in 2013, down to about $5.5 billion in 2016. The toy business is rather tough, particularly when so many companies are fighting for that extra $5 to $20 impulse purchase for the kids.

This is another example where the toy business has been a tough one, and the cycles here can be quite long. Mattel’s stock went up to almost $50 back in 2013 but has now lost well over half of its value. Lower guidance, ceasing to offer future guidance and a 60% dividend cut in June of 2017 haven’t helped the narrative either. Is it possible that there are just too many toy choices these days — or are kids on smartphones just too much to compete with?

Shares of Mattel were last seen at $20.85, with a consensus price target of $23.92 and a 52-week range of $19.41 to $34.24. Over the past year, the stock is down 33.9%. The market cap is $7.1 billion.

Under Armour: When growth can’t even sell itself as value

Under Armour Inc. (NYSE: UAA) was a great and growing brand and its stock kept rising for years. Ultimately, growth stories start to fizzle, and competition from Nike, Adidas, Reebok and other up-and-coming brands gets tough after the competitors get sick enough of losing market share.

Under Armour pursued a split-class of shares, and Chairman and CEO Kevin Plank (founder) recently added a new president to the ranks to help run this sports apparel giant. Double-digit revenue growth just no longer impresses the “what have done for me lately” investor crowd. It’s also hard for Under Armour to sell itself as a value stock when it is valued at about 50 times earnings. New athlete and rapper endorsements are still not enough to drive interest. Under Armour’s shares peaked at roughly $50 in mid-2015, but they are currently closer to $20.

Also, Under Armour was downgraded to Sell from Hold with a $17 target price at Deutsche Bank on Tuesday.

Its shares were trading at $20.25, within a 52-week range of $18.35 to $44.68. The consensus price target is $21.57. Over the past 52 weeks, the stock is down 51.6%, and the market cap is more than $8 billion.

Urban Oufitters: Can clothing stores become destination restaurants?

Urban Outfitters Inc. (NASDAQ: URBN) grew and grew over the past two decades. This company even helped people get over the shock that they are paying close to $200 for jeans, and even controversial ad campaigns managed to not hurt the company. But, similar to what Gap experienced after endless growth in the 1990s, growth rates have become far more modest and the internet’s ability to act as a price moderator for hipster brands has put pressure on margins.

Urban Outfitters still may be marginally growing, but its stock has lost two-thirds of its value since peaking in early 2015. Maybe an activist investor can help here, and maybe Urban Outfitters needs to do some brand evaluations between its namesake brand and its other brands: Anthropologie, Bhldn, Terrain and Free People. Also, should retailers really be trying to grow restaurant operations?

Urban Outfitters shares were last seen at $18.15. The stock has a 52-week range of $16.19 to $40.80 and a consensus price target of $20.22. Over the past year, the stock is down 38.8%. The market cap is $2 billion.