After a horrendous showing when it came to dealing with health care, many on Wall Street and Main Street are now wondering about the chances for real tax reform. Given the huge disagreements between the political parties on how that should go, some on Wall Street feel the Republicans may shoot for a “mini” tax reform bill. With the government needing a bill for funding by September 30, and the midterm elections now just a year away, positive action is needed.
In a new research report, Savita Subramanian and her team at Merrill Lynch make the case that after the Obamacare repeal failures, Republicans may shoot for an easier and simpler “mini” tax reform bill, one that includes a repatriation tax holiday and a lowering of the corporate tax rate to 25%. The analysts feel this may be more positive for stocks than a comprehensive tax reform bill.
In the report, Merrill Lynch featured 21 companies that may benefit the most, most of which have little if any foreign sales. The following five are also rated Buy at Merrill Lynch.
Alaska Air
This company has no foreign sales and is a top transport to buy at Merrill Lynch. Alaska Air Group Inc. (NYSE: ALK) is the parent company of Alaska Airlines, and it reported impressive traffic data buoyed by strong demand. The company serves more than 100 cities through an expansive network in Alaska, the Lower 48 states, Hawaii, Canada and Mexico. Despite recent challenges by other carriers for superiority in the Northwest, the company has strong customer loyalty, which has contributed to outstanding earnings and revenue growth.
The stock was hit recently, but shares have recovered as the market reacted positively to the passenger service system integration and pilot contract updates. In addition, despite recent fears of weak pricing, the company noted that pricing trends are stable. Merrill Lynch did lower 2017 and 2018 estimated earnings per share to account for higher fuel and slightly higher impact from a pilot contract.
Shareholders of Alaska Air are paid a 1.4% divided. The Merrill Lynch price target for the stock is $113, and the Wall Street consensus target is $109.15. The stock closed trading Monday at $85.23 a share.
CenturyLink
This company offers solid value and has zero foreign sales exposure. CenturyLink Inc. (NYSE: CTL) is the nation’s third-largest telephone company and the largest rural exchange provider serving residential, business and wholesale customers. The company offers broadband and Ethernet services, and it has 14 million access lines and nearly 6 million high-speed internet connections across 37 states.
CenturyLink is the product of the acquisition of Embarq by CenturyTel in 2008 and Qwest Communications in 2011. Back in March, shareholders of CenturyLink and Level 3 Communications approved their merger by overwhelming majorities. Wall Street loves this deal, and the synergies the two have combined are very strong.
CenturyLink investors receive a gigantic 9.28% dividend, which looks safe for now, but always could be lowered. The staggering $42 Merrill Lynch price target compares with the consensus price objective of $26.27. The stock ended trading on Monday at $23.27 per share.
Constellation Brands
If there is any company with products that stay in style, it is this one, which only has 7% foreign sales. Constellation Brands Inc. (NYSE: STZ) is a leading global producer and marketer of beverage alcohol. Its wide-ranging portfolio spans wine, spirits and imported beer. The company is one the world’s largest wine companies overall and is the largest global premium wine company. Key brands include Robert Mondavi, Clos du Bois, Blackstone, Arbor Mist, Black Velvet and SVEDKA vodka. It also owns 100% of the rights to brew, market and sell Modelo’s Mexican beers in the United States.
The company posted solid quarterly results to kick of the fiscal 2018 year, and the Merrill Lynch analysts raised their earnings estimates for fiscal 2018 and 2019. Trading at about 24.7 times earnings, the shares aren’t cheap, but the analysts feel there is still solid upside potential.
Investors are paid a small 1.07% dividend. Merrill Lynch has set its price target at $218. The consensus target is $211.33, and the stock closed trading most recently at $193.35.
CVS
This is a top stock retail stock that has no foreign sales to report, and some still think that Warren Buffett may have his eye on the company. CVS Health Corp. (NYSE: CVS) provides integrated pharmacy health care services. Its Pharmacy Services segment offers pharmacy benefit management solutions, such as plan design and administration, formulary management.
The Retail/LTC segment sells prescription drugs, over-the-counter drugs, beauty products and cosmetics, personal care products, convenience foods, seasonal merchandise and greeting cards, as well as provides photo finishing services. It operates 9,655 retail stores in 49 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico and Brazil, primarily under the CVS Pharmacy, CVS, Longs Drugs, Navarro Discount Pharmacy and Drogaria Onofre names. It also operates online retail pharmacy websites and 32 on-site pharmacy stores, long-term care pharmacy operations and retail health care clinics.
CVS investors are paid a 2.51% dividend. Merrill Lynch has a $90 price target, and the posted consensus target is $87.17. The shares closed Monday at $79.93 apiece.
Lowe’s
This company has a low 6% of foreign sales, and it is also on the Merrill Lynch US 1 list. Lowe’s Companies Inc. (NYSE: LOW) operates as a home improvement retailer, offering products for maintenance, repair, remodeling and home decorating.
Categories include kitchens and appliances; lumber and building materials; tools and hardware; fashion fixtures; rough plumbing and electrical; lawn and garden; seasonal living; paint; home fashions; storage and cleaning; flooring; millwork; and outdoor power equipment. The company also offers installation services through independent contractors in various product categories.
The stock is trading at a price-to-earnings discount to its rival Home Depot, as well as trading below its five-year and 10-year P/E averages. With earnings expected to grow at an 18% compounded annual growth rate through 2018, adding shares at current levels makes sense.
Investors in Lowe’s are paid a 2.12% dividend. The Merrill Lynch price objective is $100. The consensus target is at $88.85, and shares closed Monday at $77.40 apiece.
These five top stocks to buy should react well to tax reform, even if it is a smaller overall package than many are hoping for. The president needs a policy win, and this one may be able to be pushed over the goal line easier than the Obamacare repeal.
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