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11 Companies With Lost Narratives Also Lean Toward Poor Earnings Reactions
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Some companies manage to rise into a dominant position in their industries. Whether they can hold on to that dominance through time is another story. It turns out that it can be quite simple for a great company to fall from grace. Once a company stays out of the spotlight for some time, the public and investors may cease to care what the company says or does.
24/7 Wall St. just recently featured 11 great American companies that have totally lost their own narratives. It turns out that, while not all the stocks have continued to slide, these companies have by and large demonstrated very poor or dull earnings. And some of the companies still have earnings due later in August.
It is important to understand exactly what is at work here. The bull market is now well over eight years old, and investors keep finding new reasons to chase the market into all-time highs. At the start of August, the Dow hit 22,000 for the first time and was up over 11% so far in 2017 alone. The S&P 500 was up almost 11%, and the Nasdaq 100 was up 21% year to date. It all adds up to a very sad situation for the companies that lost their narrative with poor stock performance and weak earnings trends.
Investors love good stories around sales and earnings growth. They love dividends, and they love buybacks. And they love stability and predictability if nothing else is apparent. When companies have lost their narrative, their actions and words generally become ignored — unless there is drastic change.
After companies lose their narrative, they are almost never shown in a positive light. It is very hard for company to sell itself as a “cheap value stock” because management knows this means investors don’t want to pay a good value for the business. Some of these companies end up merely being “value traps” that never generate good returns for investors. Some companies lose their narrative to the point that they may have existential risk ahead. The end result is that companies losing their own narrative also find themselves under a microscope for short sellers.
24/7 Wall St. has updated its report on the 11 great American companies that have all lost their own narrative. Again, not all the stocks continued to slide, though many did. What matters is that these companies are likely to remain unfavorable in a bull market until someone can force a recovery or can make major changes to their operations.
AutoZone: Awaiting Earnings
AutoZone Inc. (NYSE: AZO) is currently the largest retailer and distributer of auto replacement parts and accessories, after annual sales of $10.6 billion in 2016. There has been endless growth here over the years, but now Amazon and other online competition have added pressure at the same time that wages have risen in many regions. Competitive pricing is great for consumers, but it generally means lower margins for retailers. This stock was down 35% over the course of a year prior to being featured, and now it is valued at only about 11 times forward earnings.
AutoZone has not reported earnings since late in May, so it is trading around peers at this time. AutoZone was last seen changing hands $529.29, up from $504.00 when it was featured as having lost its narrative. AutoZone’s consensus analyst target price was about $661.50 then, but it has dropped by a few pennies since.
Bed Bath & Beyond: Awaiting Earnings
Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (NASDAQ: BBBY) sells all sorts of home goods for bedrooms, bathrooms, kitchens, utility rooms and so on, and the retailer used to be able to do no wrong. The death of Linens-n-Things was a boon, but Amazon and competition online and from big-box sellers has chewed it up. Bed Bath & Beyond has managed to keep growing its sales to $12.2 billion in fiscal 2017, but its operating income has been in decline as selling general and administrative costs keep rising. Bed Bath & Beyond peaked at about $80 a share at the end of 2013, and investors are treating this declining earnings story as dirt, even as it is valued at less than eight times expected earnings.
Bed Bath & Beyond has yet to report earnings, and its shares have risen since being featured. Its stock was at $28.50 at the time, and the last trade was at $30.54. Its consensus target price of $32.74 at the time is still the same today.
Chipotle: Still Has Montezuma in the House
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (NYSE: CMG) was the prize of the millennials in fast food and casual dining after being spun off by McDonald’s more than a decade ago. It has grown to a about 2,200 stores, and that level is proving to be hard to tend to for quality control around the nation. The you-know-what hit the fan at Chipotle in 2015 when a wave of illnesses damaged the brand, and then same-store sales growth turned into contractions. Fresh news of illnesses and rodents hasn’t helped Chipotle, and Credit Suisse recently warned of slower store growth, declining same-store sales and an inability to raise prices all as being likely. And Chipotle remains expensive despite its sell-off, with a value of 45 times this year’s expected earnings.
Chipotle shares were trading at $346.10 when featured, and they were last seen at $345.36, despite many class action sorts of press releases appearing after earnings. Chipotle’s consensus price target was $422.12 when first featured, and that target is now down handily to $394.56.
Ford: Welcome to Peak Auto
Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) did great through the recession, and the company succeeded under chief Alan Mulally, but his turnaround crashed and burned under successor Mark Fields, who was fired last May. Now James Hackett is Ford’s CEO, and Wall Street doesn’t know how he will do in a world that is perhaps overly enthralled with Elon Musk of Tesla. Ford (along with peers) has to deal with 2017 representing a “peak auto” trend while car loan terms have gotten even longer. Looking ahead, there is a slew of cars coming off lease over the next 24 months that will pressure new and used car prices alike. Even being valued at less than eight times earnings and having a 5% dividend just isn’t always good enough. And what to do about the younger generation that doesn’t even want to own a car?
Ford’s shares were at $11.30 when featured before earnings, but they were last seen at $10.93. Ford’s consensus price target was $12.67 when featured, and that target is now down to $12.42.
GE: Meet General Eclectic and a New CEO
General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) was more of the same in earnings, still having enough parts that it was confusing. Jeff Immelt has now turned over the CEO role but is still chairman, and for now the market doesn’t want to hear GE’s strategy after expensive energy acquisitions, selling its appliances unit, selling off and spinning off financial assets, and selling its media unit. GE’s balance sheet is so complex that most analysts and investors have a hard time explaining it, and the market has to wait until November of 2017 for GE’s new formal 2018 earnings guidance.
Investors already assume that GE’s old $2 in earnings per share target is well out of reach (2018 consensus estimate is now $1.70 per share), and it is questionable just how different the new CEO will show the future portfolio of GE companies. General Electric may remain treated as though it is “General Eclectic” but at 15 times forward earnings it is cheap in an expensive market.
Shares of GE were trading at $25.40 when featured, and its most recent close was at $25.76. Its consensus analyst target at the time was $30.08, and that has come down to $29.31.
24/7 Wall St.Harley-Davidson: No Textin’ While Hoggin’ the Road
Harley-Davidson Inc. (NYSE: HOG) is having a hard time finding new motorcycle buyers, and it lowered guidance with earnings in July. The rival Indian motorcycle and the niche three-wheeled market eat at Harley-Davidson. The packs of lawyers and doctors buying Harleys that replaced the old rough and tough guys is no longer bringing growth, and Harley may have to hope for foreign markets to rekindle. Its sales have fallen in 2015 and 2016 and are expected to fall in 2017. Despite being a great American brand, rekindling interest is hard in a world where everyone wants to send texts, have video chats or use social media while they are driving.
Harley-Davidson shares were trading at $48.70, with a consensus price target of $52.25, when featured. The shares were last seen trading at $47.99, with a consensus analyst target of $51.58.
IBM: In Need of New Leadership
International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE: IBM) has faltered under the leadership of Ginni Rometty, and it seems hard to understand how the company justified a large pay raise for her. The ancient target for long-term earnings guidance of $20 per share now seems impossible, even as IBM can keep buying back stock and has been raising its dividend. The ultimate slap was when Warren Buffett confessed that he has sold some of his large stake and no longer sees its position as solid — an “I surrender” moment from the world’s greatest investor.
IBM’s core IT-consulting has a long-term chart that looks quite similar to smoking trends in America over the past two decades. Strategic initiatives in the cloud, artificial intelligence and machine learning have all done well, but they just cannot grow fast enough to overcome IBM’s core business decline. IBM’s revenues have been lower for more than five years now, and IBM no longer even tries to brag in its earnings press releases about its massive backlog of services revenues. Credit Suisse sees IBM falling to $110, but a less negative target from Jefferies targets a $125 stock price. IBM hasn’t only lost its narrative, it might not even have a narrative until new leadership or a game-changing event comes along.
IBM’s stock price was $146.85 and its consensus price target was $159.35 when featured, and now its shares are at $144.94, with a consensus analyst target price of $158.35.
Macy’s: Awaiting Earnings
Macy’s Inc. (NYSE: M) has yet to report its earnings. The mall-based department store giant has suffered the wrath of Amazon and the omnichannel for some time, and some shoppers feel that the stores are outdated. The convenience of online shopping and price matching have resulted in Macy’s being now two years deep into revenue declines. Analysts also expect that sales decline to remain the case for the next three years. Bringing in a new CEO to replace Terry Lundgren may not even help. While many of Macy’s problems are similar to other retailers, the stock was already down more than 30% over the past year, and it is valued at just seven times earnings. It still seems impossible to unlock the value of its dirt, and whatever Macy’s tries to communicate seems to be ignored by an “Amazon-loving” Wall Street.
Macy’s has yet to report earnings, but its stock was at $23.20 with a consensus price target of $25.83 when featured. The stock was also down about 34% over the past year when featured. On last look, Macy’s was trading at $23.59, and the consensus analyst target was still the same.
Mattel: More Like No-Tell in Toyland
Mattel Inc. (NASDAQ: MAT) may be a great American toy company, and its brands of Barbie, American Girl, Hot Wheels, Fischer Price chasing movie franchises, superheroes, Disney, WWE and a slew of others. This just hasn’t translated into growth, and the revenue of $6.5 billion in 2013 was down to about $5.5 billion in 2016. The latest earnings report confirmed just how tough the toy business can be. Mattel’s stock almost reached $50 back in 2013 but has now lost well over 60% of its value, and the company recently slashed its dividend by 60%. Mattel has no narrative, and the sad part is that there may simply be too many choices for toys these days when kids are hooked on smartphones as much or more than their parents.
Shares of Mattel were at $20.85 and the consensus price target was $23.92 ahead of earnings. Now its stock has taken more downgrades after earnings, and the price was last seen at $18.98, with a lower consensus analyst target price of $21.33. Its stock was already down over 30% from a year ago when featured.
Under Armour: Name Change to Under-Performing
Under Armour Inc. (NYSE: UAA) has sure found a reversal of fortune after its sales and stock rose higher and higher for years. Most growth stories end up fizzling out, and competition from Nike, Adidas, Reebok and other up-and-coming brands make for a tough combination. When competitors get sick enough of losing market share it tends to hurt everyone’s margins. What has changed at Under Armour is that it pursued a split-class of shares and founder, Chairman and CEO Kevin Plank recently added a new president to the ranks. Double-digit revenue growth just no longer impresses investors as the law of large numbers has started to come into play on Under Armour’s growth rate. Under Armour was valued at about 50 times earnings ahead of the report, so even with shares having fallen some 50%, it was nowhere close to being a value stock.
Under Armour shares were trading at $20.25 with a consensus price target of $21.57 ahead of earnings when we featured it is having lost its narrative. The stock was last seen trading at $18.31, and its consensus analyst target was down to $20.27.
Urban Outfitters: Awaiting Earnings
Urban Outfitters Inc. (NASDAQ: URBN) rose to power over the past two decades, and the company may have been the leader of helping consumers not worry that they can pay close to $200 for jeans. The company was even immune to backlash after controversial and insensitive ad campaigns. Still, it ended up where the Gap did, after growing endlessly through the 1990s, with much more modest growth rates. The internet can help buyers find the same jeans cheaper now too. Urban Outfitters is still marginally growing, but its stock had lost two-thirds of its value since peaking in early 2015. Will an activist help here? Does Urban Outfitters need to do some brand soul-searching evaluations between its namesake brand and the other brands of Anthropologie, Bhldn, Terrain and Free People? And should retailers really be trying to grow restaurant operations?
Urban Outfitters has yet to report earnings, but when first featured as a lost narrative its stock was at $18.15 with a consensus target price of $20.22. Its stock was most recently trading at $18.76, and the consensus analyst target had drifted down to $20.19.
The verdict is so far looking not that hot for the companies that have lost their narratives. Some companies that have yet to report earnings have recently shown stock price gains, but it seems pretty obvious that Wall Street is going to demand action before they want to reward bad behavior. The underlying theme here has been a total loss of control by management over how their earnings will be interpreted ahead. Those trends can be nearly impossible to easily reverse, and many of the companies featured here seem like they will have problems likely to persist for quite some time.
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