Investing

5 Merrill Lynch US 1 Stocks Are Top 2018 Total Return Plays

Lee Jackson

Published: October 17, 2017 8:30 am

Last Updated: January 12, 2020 7:08 am

With the market continuing to grind higher, many investors are asking what to do now, and current worries are with good reason. We are about ready to observe the 30th anniversary of the infamous Black Monday, when on October 19, 1987, investors were treated to a massive loss that was, and currently remains, the largest percentage decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, a stunning 22.6% in one day.

While nobody expects another day like Black Monday, the reason for concern is well placed. Right now, it may make sense for investors to shift from momentum to a total return strategy. Again total return is the combined increase in a stock’s value plus dividends. For instance, if you buy a stock at $20 that pays a 3% dividend, and it goes up to $22 in a year, your total return is 13% — 10% for the increase in stock price and 3% for the dividends paid.

We screened the Merrill Lynch US 1 stock list, which is the firm’s highest conviction stock picks, for companies that were reasonably priced and paid a good dividend. We found five that make good sense for investors now.

Coca-Cola European Partners

The former Coca-Cola Enterprises reported solid earnings and is a very safe play for investors. Coca-Cola European Partners PLC (NYSE: CCE) is the leading Western European marketer, producer and distributor of nonalcoholic ready-to-drink beverages and one of the world’s largest independent Coca-Cola bottlers.

The company is the sole licensed bottler for products of Coca-Cola in Belgium, continental France, Great Britain, Luxembourg, Monaco, the Netherlands, Norway and Sweden. It operates with a local focus and has 17 manufacturing sites across Europe, where the company manufactures nearly 90% of its products in the markets in which they are consumed.

In 2016 the company merged Coca-Cola Erfrischungsgetränke in Germany and Coca-Cola Iberian Partners, which serves Spain and Portugal. Based on revenues, the company is the world’s largest independent Coca-Cola bottler. It serves over 300 million consumers across Western Europe.

Investors are paid a solid 2.4% dividend. The Merrill Lynch price target is for the stock is $48, and the Wall Street consensus target is $49.91. The stock closed trading on Monday at $42.

Comcast

This broadcasting-related stock could have continued solid upside potential. Comcast Corp. (NASDAQ: CMCSA) is the largest U.S. provider of cable services, with over 22 million basic subscribers. It owns NBCU, which includes the NBC TV Networks, Telemundo, MSNBC, USA, Syfy, Bravo, E!, CNBC and several other cable networks, as well as Universal Films and Universal Theme Parks.

Comcast has invested in technology to build an advanced network that delivers among the fastest broadband speeds and brings customers personalized video, communications and home management offerings. The company reported very solid second-quarter results, and the analysts noted at the time: “Comcast reported strong second quarter 2017 earnings, with healthy results across all business lines.” Third quarter results are due next week.

Comcast investors receive a 1.72% dividend. Merrill Lynch has a $50 price objective, and the consensus target price is $45.97. The shares closed Monday at $36.61 apiece.

Delta Air Lines

This company consistently has ranked high with Wall Street. Delta Air Lines Inc. (NYSE: DAL) and the regional Delta Connection carriers offer service to 334 destinations in 64 countries on six continents. Headquartered in Atlanta, Delta employs nearly 80,000 employees worldwide and operates a mainline fleet of more than 700 aircraft.

Wall Street analysts have long lauded Delta for the most extensive hedging policy among the airlines and it owns and operates a refinery in addition to a sizable hedging book. The company reported solid third-quarter results, and the Merrill Lynch analysts were very encouraged by fourth quarter revenue outlook for the airline.

Delta investors are paid a very nice 2.28% dividend. The $63 Merrill Lynch price objective is well above the consensus price target of $58.46. The stock closed Monday at $53.62.

Lowe’s

This company has a low 6% of foreign sales. Lowe’s Companies Inc. (NYSE: LOW) operates as a home improvement retailer, offering products for maintenance, repair, remodeling and home decorating.

Categories include kitchens and appliances; lumber and building materials; tools and hardware; fashion fixtures; rough plumbing and electrical; lawn and garden; seasonal living; paint; home fashions; storage and cleaning; flooring; millwork; and outdoor power equipment. The company also offers installation services through independent contractors in various product categories.

The stock is trading at a price-to-earnings discount to its rival Home Depot, as well as trading below its five-year and 10-year P/E averages. Many expect the company to report strong earnings next month as the disastrous hurricane damage in Texas and Florida could drive earnings for multiple quarters.

Lowe’s investors are paid a 2.0% dividend. Merrill Lynch has set its price objective at $95. The consensus target price is $84.38, and shares closed Monday at $81.20.

Walmart

The giant retailer’s stock has performed well since bouncing off lows for the year in January. Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) operates retail stores in various formats worldwide, including discount stores, supermarkets, supercenters, hypermarkets, warehouse clubs, cash and carry stores, home improvement stores, specialty electronics stores, restaurants, apparel stores, drug stores and convenience stores. It also operates via retail websites, such as Walmart.com and SamsClub.com.

Each week, nearly 260 million customers and members visit the company’s 11,535 stores under 72 banners in 28 countries and e-commerce websites in 11 countries. With fiscal year 2016 revenue of $482.1 billion, Walmart employs approximately 2.2 million associates worldwide.

The company recently announced a massive $20 billion stock repurchase plan that was met with open arms by Wall Street. Many think it is in an effort to ward off potential activist investors.

Walmart shareholders are paid a 2.56% dividend. The Merrill Lynch price target of $100 compares with the posted consensus target of $85.49 and the most recent close at $85.74.

Despite the constant Wall Street bullishness, the market needs a breather, and a 5% sell-off would provide just that. These five top stocks rated Buy, all pay good dividends and offer a degree of safety in what is clearly a very expensive market by historical standards. With the markets grinding higher and very expensive, playing it safe makes sense.