Investing

9 Speculative Analyst Stocks With Projected Upside of 50% to 200%

Jon C. Ogg

Published: November 4, 2017 8:20 am

Last Updated: January 12, 2020 6:38 am

Investors have seen the markets rise and rise in 2017, with new all-time highs almost weekly, and this bull market is now nearing nine years old. The Dow has now run above 23,500, and the S&P 500 is now well over 2,500. Even the Nasdaq is nearing 7,000 for the first time. The business climate is firm, and there are some positive growth developments driving the continued excitement for stocks. Many investors are still looking for new ideas to generate gains or income ahead.

24/7 Wall St. covers many analyst reports each day of the week, and this becomes hundreds of analyst calls each week. With the traditional Dow and S&P 500 stocks given 8% to 10% upside to the price targets at this stage in the bull market, those investors looking for new ideas might be considering some less-crowded areas than the traditional stocks that make up the major indexes and are owned by most mutual funds and exchange traded funds. This is where the highly speculative stocks come into play.

In small cap or highly speculative stocks, some analysts issue upside targets of 30%, 50% or even well over 100% above the current share price. Conservative investors need to be more than just careful here. They should probably run away and hide from most speculative stocks. If the S&P or Dow and their top dividend payers were to fall 10% from these lofty market levels, imagine how bad speculative stocks might fall if investors flee.

Many speculative stocks have core fundamental risks that are just not present in big established companies with decades of operating history. These companies rarely have dividends, some have true existential risks for the years ahead, and these would almost never qualify under the suitability tests for widows and orphans. Sectors such as biotech and cleantech, and companies with market values of less than $1 billion, are obviously more risky than traditional stocks.

Just to show how these perform from time to time: the prior weekend review of top speculative analyst calls had seven calls with massive upside in that 50% to 100% or more range. One of those seven was up 20% this past week, but there were four losers during the week, with shares that fell by 3% to 12%.

Investors and traders should only use positive analyst research reports as a starting point, rather than as a final decision. After all, we wouldn’t want you thinking we blindly trust all analyst calls just because they offer big upside predictions. Again, some have true existential risks.

Trading data and color have been included on some of the top speculative calls seen during the week of November 3, 2017. Consensus analyst price targets, if available, are from the Thomson Reuters sell-side universe.

Here are nine very speculative outside analyst calls looking for huge upside from the week of November 3, 2017.

Adamas Pharmaceuticals

Adamas Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: ADMS) had a massive week, with shares rising from $22 to above $28 over the course of the week. Adamas posted earnings that may have been short of some expectations, but the stock kept chugging along, for a market cap of about $630 million at the end of the week. The firm Evercore ISI issued a new Outperform rating on the stock with a monster price target of $85 — roughly 200% higher than the current price. For some balance here, JMP Securities is more conservative in its Outperform rating with just a $33 price target.

The company’s lead asset is GOCOVRI (ADS-5102), a wholly owned extended-release formulation of amantadine, which was approved by the FDA in August 2017 to treat Parkinson’s disease patients experiencing levodopa-induced dyskinesia. Adamas completed its IPO back in April of 2014 at $16 per share.

Aduro BioTech

Aduro BioTech Inc. (NASDAQ: ADRO) was started as Outperform with a $15 price target (versus an $8.25 prior close) at Oppenheimer on November 1. The firm sees multiple early clinical readouts that are expected in the fourth quarter. Its shares were actually lower after the report, with its stock down at $7.95 on Friday’s close. If Oppenheimer is right, this could be a double. Still, its $614 million market cap is highly speculative, even if the consensus analyst target price is $17.60. Aduro’s 52-week trading range is $6.01 to $15.52.

Capstone Turbine

Capstone Turbine Corp. (NASDAQ: CPST) remains highly speculative, and its performance has been very mixed over time. After reporting more or less in-line numbers on EBITDA and EPS, there may have been a feeling of slow bookings. Still, several orders were announced that came in after the end of September that suggest a material pickup.

Oppenheimer believes the company is nearly breakeven on a cash flow basis, and the firm maintained its Outperform rating and $2 price target. Capstone Turbine shares were last seen trading at $1.00 on Friday, but they were up at $1.04 earlier in the morning. Its 52-week range is $0.58 to $1.35, and the consensus target price was $1.70.

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Dicerna Pharmaceuticals

Dicerna Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: DRNA) was up 28% to $7.23 on Thursday, and while it posted another loss it also announced a collaboration agreement with Boehringer Ingelheim to develop novel chronic liver disease treatments. The firm H.C. Wainwright reiterated its Buy rating and raised its target to $10 from $6 on November 3. Other price targets were raised as well: Leerink to $7 from $4 and Stifel to $10 from $9. Dicerna shares closed at $7.78 on Friday, after earlier in the day hitting a new 52-week high of $8.23. The market cap here is just $162 million.

Green Plains

Green Plains Inc. (NASDAQ: GPRE) may have fallen by 7.6% to $16.77 on Thursday after earnings, but Piper Jaffray decided that this was finally an entry point into the ethanol and related products player. The firm raised Green Plains to Overweight from Neutral with a $25 price target, and its shares closed down 1% at $16.60 on Friday, in a 52-week trading range of $16.25 to $29.85. This remains a speculative stock, with the company’s many efforts around energy and also food-related products, and its market cap was less than $690 million on last look.

Rhythm Pharmaceuticals

Rhythm Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: RYTM) may be a recent IPO, but its post–quiet period coverage showed at least some very aggressive upside targets. Merrill Lynch started the stock with a Buy rating and a $30 price objective on November 30. It was also started with an Outperform rating and assigned a $40 price target at Cowen. This stock ended the week at $25.89, and note that Morgan Stanley was only willing to assign an Equal Weight rating with a $23 price target. Rhythm Pharma shares have a post-IPO range of $21.38 to $33.81.

SunPower

SunPower Corp. (NASDAQ: SPWR) saw its shares pop big after earnings, and Oppenheimer slashed its loss expectations in half for this year while maintaining earnings expectations for $0.15 per share next year. The company has an Outperform rating and maintained its $13 price target. SunPower shares were just above $7.00 ahead of earnings, but they closed $8.64 apiece on Friday. The 52-week range is $5.84 to $11.70, and the consensus target price was $9.08 on last look.

Turtle Beach

Turtle Beach Corp. (NASDAQ: HEAR) had a poor reception after earnings, with its shares down 13% at $0.63, and with a micro-cap of $33 million on Friday. The analyst reports seen were in contrast to that reaction, but investors need to understand that this is a highly speculative headset company.

Oppenheimer maintained its Outperform rating and $2.25 target price on November 3, noting that the company is on track to close out a turnaround year after a weaker-than-expected start to October and a shift in retailer inventory management. Wedbush maintained its Outperform rating and $1.50 target price after earnings, noting that revenue was light but that profitability is now in view.

YogaWorks

YogaWorks Inc. (NASDAQ: YOGA) was started with an Outperform rating and assigned a $5 price target at Imperial Capital on October 3. The prior closing price was $2.77, but the shares closed up 2.9% ($0.08) at $2.89 Friday. Its post-IPO range is $2.41 to $5.85. YogaWorks just recently expanded by acquiring YogaOne’s seven locations in Houston, and the company has 62 studios in eight major U.S. markets. The company’s market cap is a mere $47 million.