Investing

Massive Damage From Natural Disasters Driving Huge Sales at 4 Companies

Lee Jackson

Published: November 8, 2017 10:00 am

Last Updated: January 12, 2020 6:31 am

This was one of the worst years on record for the United States when it came to hurricane-related and natural disaster storm damage. For Houston alone, the fourth largest city in the United States, data from CoreLogic, a property analytics firm, predicts between $25 billion and $37 billion worth of flood loss, including homes across southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. Hurricane Irma was predicted to cost around $100 billion worth of damages in Florida. While the storms have left the news cycle, the rebuilding is still just in the early stages.

While many may argue whether climate change had anything to do with the summer deluge of storms, data from the NOAA does show that it had been years since storms this strong hit the United States. In fact, the last major hurricane to make landfall in the continental United States was Wilma, which struck Florida as a Category 3 on October 24, 2005. The last Category 4 storm to make landfall in the United States was Charley, in Florida in August 2004. And the last Category 5 hurricane to devastate Texas was Carla in 1961.

The bottom line is these storms, while catastrophic for many Americans, are providing huge sales for four top companies. A new Merrill Lynch research report notes that there has been a substantial increase in natural disasters and storms since 1980, but few had the severity and impact of this summer. The report also notes that the extensive wildfires in the west and other disasters are also accounting for more and more damage. While disaster repairs account for only 1% of overall home improvement projects, they account for 5% of all home improvement spending.

Four stocks rated Buy at Merrill Lynch could be big beneficiaries of the disaster repair.

Home Depot

This remains the undisputed leader in the home improvement retail category. Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD) is the world’s largest home improvement specialty retailer, with 2,270 retail stores in all 50 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands, Guam, 10 Canadian provinces and Mexico.

Home Depot stores sell various building materials, home improvement products, and lawn and garden products, as well as provide installation, home maintenance and professional service programs to do-it-yourself (DIY), do-it-for-me (DIFM) and professional customers.

The stock has rallied on the company’s strong fundamentals, as well as a highly consolidated industry position that separates it from other retail subsectors. Home Depot remains, clearly, the “best house on the retail block” with room for continued upside on strong traffic and share gains.

The horrific storms that hit Texas and Florida this summer are almost certain to drive third-quarter results higher. Given the work to repair could take some time, the potential could continue well into 2018 and beyond. The research report noted the company has the largest exposure to the most disaster prone states at 36% of store locations. Home Depot is slated to report quarterly results on November 14.

Shareholders receive a 2.18% dividend. Merrill Lynch raised its price target to $190 from $170. The Wall Street consensus price objective is $171.70. Shares traded early Wednesday at $163.15.

Lowe’s

This company is poised to see huge sales from this year’s events. Lowe’s Companies Inc. (NYSE: LOW) operates as a home improvement retailer, offering products for maintenance, repair, remodeling and home decorating.

Categories include kitchens and appliances; lumber and building materials; tools and hardware; fashion fixtures; rough plumbing and electrical; lawn and garden; seasonal living; paint; home fashions; storage and cleaning; flooring; millwork; and outdoor power equipment. The company also offers installation services through independent contractors in various product categories.

While Lowe’s doesn’t have quite the store coverage that Home Depot does, with only 31% of the stores in the disaster-prone states, two recent acquisitions by the company, Alacrity and Maintenance Supply Headquarters, could help it capture continued post-hurricane demand.

The stock trades at a price-to-earnings discount to Home Depot. Many expect Lowe’s to report strong earnings this month as the disastrous hurricane damage in Texas and Florida could drive earnings for multiple quarters. It is scheduled to report on November 21.

Lowe’s investors receive a 2.12% dividend. The $95 Merrill Lynch price objective compares with the consensus target of $84.73 and the recent share price of $77.50.

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Floor and Decor Holdings

Founded in 2000, this is a smaller cap company that Merrill Lynch views as a beneficiary of storm-related events as well. The initial concept for Floor and Decor Holdings Inc. (NYSE: FND) focused on buyouts of product, but the company has since evolved.

The stores carry all major categories of hard flooring (tile, wood, laminate and stone) along with decorative items and the accessories needed to complete a project. Some 40% of sales are to do-it-yourself-ers and 60% are to pros. The company currently operates 72 stores and is targeting more than 400 stores over the long term.

The company posted solid third-quarter results, and with 26% of the locations in Florida and southeast Texas, it is well situated for current rebuilding and future activity. The analysts noted this after earnings were released:

Floor and Decor Holdings reported a strong third quarter with comps of 13.5%, only 50 basis points below our estimate even with a 2.5% negative impact from the hurricanes. The stores over three years old continue to comp in the high single digits and management reiterated its 20% store growth target. The company continues to perform extremely well and has one of the best sq. ft. and earnings growth opportunities in all of retail.

Merrill Lynch has a $47 price target, while the posted consensus estimate is $41.71. Shares were last seen trading near $40.20.

Tractor Supply

While not comparable to some degree to the other companies in this report, Tractor Supply Co. (NASDAQ: TSCO) is the largest domestic operator of retail farm and ranch stores, with 2016 revenues of $6.8 billion. The company currently operates over 1,600 stores, with a longer-term build-out of potentially another 900 markets for its Tractor Supply stores and 1,000 Petsense stores.

While not big-box home improvement related per se, the company offers patient accounts outstanding value, and it is way overlooked by portfolio managers. The analyst said this in its earnings release report:

Tractor Supply reported its best comp in 16 quarters which breaks a trend of very inconsistent and negative comp preannouncements. Hurricane related demand and an extended selling season were a tailwind, but organic comps were still a very admirable 4.4% The magnitude of the earnings beat should be a good start in calming concerns that the company is facing heightened online competition.

Investors are paid a 1.83% dividend. Merrill Lynch has set its price objective at $66. The consensus estimate is $61.04, and shares traded at $59.80.

While many will continue to argue for and against climate change as the cause, the bottom line is the incidents are on the rise. The companies that have the largest exposure to areas where the natural disasters commonly occur appear to be in good shape for now and the future when it comes to rebuilding efforts.